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Apple (AAPL)

Is protection on Apple cheap or dear today, where has the money been placed, how did the past month play out, and how did the judgments we filed on Apple settle? Updated after every close, with right and wrong judgments alike left on the record.

Data date 10.07 · close 335 (—) · −2.99% from the 52-week high

Where it stands today

One-year IV percentile55 / 100

Where one-month protection (30-day implied volatility) sits within its past-year range, 0 the cheapest and 100 the dearest. Protection on Apple is now in the middle of the past year.

30-day / one-year implied vol (%)27.03 / 27.98

The two are about level: nothing near-term is being priced on its own.

Expected move this week±1.5% ±5.07

Centred on the previous close of 333.63, option prices imply 328.56 to 338.7 at this week's expiry. A close outside it at expiry means the option sellers lose.

Put ÷ call (volume / open interest)0.57 / 0.91

Calls outtraded puts. It counts contracts, not direction: a put buyer may be insuring shares they own.

Levels from high to low, with distance from the close:

Call wall	340	+1.49%	The strike with the most call open interest: an upside target someone has already made a down payment on.
Expected move, high	338.7	+1.11%	Centred on the previous close: the implied top at this week's expiry.
Close	335
Put wall	330	−1.49%	The strike with the most put open interest: protection someone already paid for.
Expected move, low	328.56	−1.92%	Centred on the previous close: the implied bottom at this week's expiry.
Flip level	313.66	−6.37%	Above it, dealer hedging damps moves; below it, hedging amplifies them.

Data date 10.07. Updated once after each trading day's close; spot is the official close.

The last 30 trading days

Close, flip level, put wall and call wall, day by day: which side of the walls price is on, and whether the walls moved.

One-year and 30-day implied vol, day by day. The short line jumping while the long line holds means only the near-term event is being repriced; the long line rising too means the whole story is.

Shown: the last 30 trading days. Earlier records are in Chapter V (walls) and Chapter VII (implied vol) of the options page.

III

Today's big prints

No Apple contract made today's leaderboard.

Data date only. The board for every name is in Chapter IV of the options page.

Valuation and profitability

P/E (TTM)

38.3

Forward P/E

34.8

P/S

10.4

P/B

45.3

ROE

148.8%

Gross margin

48.7%

Net margin

27.6%

Dividend yield

0.32%

The latest P/E (2026.10.02) is 38.3, the 90th percentile of 106 readings since 1995 (0 is the cheapest in that history, 100 the dearest; past readings are taken at quarter-ends). Apple is compared only with its own past.

At the latest quarter-end: ROE 137.2% (2026.06.30), ROIC 90.2% (2026.06.30).

As of 2026.10.03, updated weekly. Full profit, return, valuation and dividend charts are in the Tech stock view.

Every case we filed on it

Each judgment is written down with its test before the fact, settled by that test, and left standing when wrong. These are all the cases that name Apple, none removed. Open one for the original filing.

4cases since 07.22

4settled

0open

09.18Confirmed and closed: the October 340 calls stayed all week at 106931 open.confirmed

Settlement
confirmed

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

09.18 Settled
成立结清：10.16 340C OI 09-18 晨 106931（09-11 结算 106553），一周没退，钱等事件过去才进、进五周后
Result: 成立

09.08The night before Apple’s event, equal money sat on both sides of the 09.09 expiry Right

Settlement
Right. Close 315.34 inside the band; both legs expired worthless.

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

09.08 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
苹果发布会前夜 09.09 到期档两边等钱（317.5C 629 万对 315P 625 万），买的是明天会动不是方向；收盘落在 315 到 320 之间则两边同时归零
Test: 09.09 收盘在 315 到 320 之间＝两边归零、买的是会动而没动；出区间＝记下赢的一侧与其成本。只引每日收盘价与短打表 EOD 轮

09.09 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
苹果发布会前夜两边等钱，买的是会动不是方向——终审
Test: 09.09 收盘在 315 到 320 之间＝两边归零；出区间＝记赢的一侧与其成本。只引每日收盘价与短打表 EOD 轮
Result: 对。收 315.34 落在区间内，两边同时归零：317.5C 2.55→0.13、315P 2.51→0.21。当天真的动了（高 319.15 低 309.90，振幅 2.98%，几乎兑现盘前 2.47% 预期波动），但收 −0.28% 回到原点

07.27AAPL calls were hit across three expiries at once on 07-27 The below-340 case hit and the 340C expired worthless

Settlement
The below-340 case hit and the 340C expired worthless: the 07-31 official close was 308.91, 9.1% below the strike, in a week when AAPL fell sharply.

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

07.27 Filed (confidence: More likely)
07-27 AAPL call 三期限同时被打(0DTE 337.5C/340C + 0729 + 0731),其中 0731 340C 是唯一需要真实上涨才回本的一档
Test: 0731 收盘 ≥ 344.80(EOD轮 last 4.80 口径)则买方回本;收盘 340~344.80 之间=方向对但买方仍亏;<340=归零。**开奖只引每日收盘价.csv 的 close**(口径墙 §0.79 A)

08.13 Settled (confidence: More likely)
07-27 三期限call同打·0731 340C唯一需真实上涨回本档（终审）
Test: 0731收盘>=344.80买方回本/340~344.80方向对仍亏/<340归零·只引每日收盘价.csv的close
Result: <340档命中=340C到期归零：0731官方收盘308.91（距340差9.1%·当周AAPL大跌）

07.22The 11.2k five-leg print is a single cross-name program orderAlso: AMZN, GOOGRight

Settlement
Right.

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

07.22 Filed (confidence: More likely)
11.2k 五腿(全1016)为同一跨票程序单
Test: 次晨五腿 OI 齐增且量级相当

07.23 Settled
跨票程序单假说
Result: 对

Cases for every name are in Chapter III of the options page. The ledger is append-only; a revision is a new row.