Options / Tickers / KRE
TICKER PAGE · KRE
State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
Is protection on KRE cheap or dear today, how did the past month play out, and how did the judgments we filed on KRE settle? Updated after every close, with right and wrong judgments alike left on the record.
Data date 10.07
I
Where it stands today
30-day / one-year implied vol (%)29 / 26.14
The 30-day sits 2.86 points above the one-year: something near-term is being priced on its own.
Data date 10.07. Implied vols are read once before each close.
II
The last 30 trading days
One-year and 30-day implied vol, day by day. The short line jumping while the long line holds means only the near-term event is being repriced; the long line rising too means the whole story is.
Shown: the last 30 trading days. Earlier records are in Chapter VII of the options page.
III
Every case we filed on it
Each judgment is written down with its test before the fact, settled by that test, and left standing when wrong. These are all the cases that name KRE, none removed. Open one for the original filing.
3cases since 09.16
3settled
0open
09.25The rate shock lands on regional banks first, tech laterAlso: XLFHolds, right at the line
Settlement
Holds, right at the line: at 15:47 on October 2 one-month insurance on the regional bank fund was 27.47 against 27.26 for one year, only 0.21 above (0.73 on October 1). To be plain: by the original wording the call should have been withdrawn on September 28, when one-month dipped below one-year (25.95 against 26.40); the settlement was then moved to October 2 and a one-day touch was not counted, as disclosed in the issue.
Holds, right at the line: at 15:47 on October 2 one-month insurance on the regional bank fund was 27.47 against 27.26 for one year, only 0.21 above (0.73 on October 1). To be plain: by the original wording the call should have been withdrawn on September 28, when one-month dipped below one-year (25.95 against 26.40); the settlement was then moved to October 2 and a one-day touch was not counted, as disclosed in the issue.
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.25 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
利率冲击最先落地在地区银行，科技股排在后面：同日 MOVE 104.58→96.00、标普 cm30 −0.65，地区银行 KRE cm30 反而 24.83→27.89（+3.06）高于 cm365 25.91，整周 +5.65；XLF 2026-10-16 54.5P 成交 70097 张对持仓 592（118 倍）
Test: 10-02 前 KRE cm30 回落到 cm365 之下（15:45 主枪）⇒ 收回；09-28 晨 XLF 54.5P 结算 OI 留存 (OI−592)/70097 <50% ⇒ 那半是过路钱，收回
利率冲击最先落地在地区银行，科技股排在后面：同日 MOVE 104.58→96.00、标普 cm30 −0.65，地区银行 KRE cm30 反而 24.83→27.89（+3.06）高于 cm365 25.91，整周 +5.65；XLF 2026-10-16 54.5P 成交 70097 张对持仓 592（118 倍）
Test: 10-02 前 KRE cm30 回落到 cm365 之下（15:45 主枪）⇒ 收回；09-28 晨 XLF 54.5P 结算 OI 留存 (OI−592)/70097 <50% ⇒ 那半是过路钱，收回
09.28 Settled
收回：09-28 15:45 主枪地区银行 KRE cm30 27.89→25.95，回落到 cm365 26.40 之下，碰到收回条件①；条件②晨读 XLF 2026-10-16 54.5P 结算持仓 592→70606，留存 99.9%，未触发。错在把地区银行当成最先受冲击的对象：它股价跌 1.4%，保护却退价；加保集中到大银行（GS +2.00、WFC +1.73、BAC +1.12、JPM +1.04，cm30 全部高于 cm365）
Result: 收回
收回：09-28 15:45 主枪地区银行 KRE cm30 27.89→25.95，回落到 cm365 26.40 之下，碰到收回条件①；条件②晨读 XLF 2026-10-16 54.5P 结算持仓 592→70606，留存 99.9%，未触发。错在把地区银行当成最先受冲击的对象：它股价跌 1.4%，保护却退价；加保集中到大银行（GS +2.00、WFC +1.73、BAC +1.12、JPM +1.04，cm30 全部高于 cm365）
Result: 收回
09.28 Corrected
作废 09-28 写入的开奖行：这条判断的开奖日是 10-02，09-28 只是地区银行一个月保险第一次落到一年期之下（25.95 对 26.40，只低 0.45 点）；本周有 PCE、美光财报和非农，一天碰线不作数，照原定 10-02 按 15:45 读数开奖
Result: 作废开奖（09-28 开奖行提前写入，照原定 10-02 开奖）
作废 09-28 写入的开奖行：这条判断的开奖日是 10-02，09-28 只是地区银行一个月保险第一次落到一年期之下（25.95 对 26.40，只低 0.45 点）；本周有 PCE、美光财报和非农，一天碰线不作数，照原定 10-02 按 15:45 读数开奖
Result: 作废开奖（09-28 开奖行提前写入，照原定 10-02 开奖）
10.02 Settled
成立（贴线）：10-02 15:47 地区银行 KRE 一个月保险 cm30 27.47 对一年期 cm365 27.26，仍在一年期之上，只高 0.21（10-01 高 0.73）。照实记：按立案原文「10-02 前 cm30 回落到 cm365 之下即收回」，09-28 已碰线（25.95 对 26.40）；当日 Klay 定开奖日照旧 10-02、一天碰线不作数（见 09-28 更正行），正文已照实披露
Result: 成立（贴线·按 09-28 改定的开奖规则；按立案原文 09-28 即应收回）
成立（贴线）：10-02 15:47 地区银行 KRE 一个月保险 cm30 27.47 对一年期 cm365 27.26，仍在一年期之上，只高 0.21（10-01 高 0.73）。照实记：按立案原文「10-02 前 cm30 回落到 cm365 之下即收回」，09-28 已碰线（25.95 对 26.40）；当日 Klay 定开奖日照旧 10-02、一天碰线不作数（见 09-28 更正行），正文已照实披露
Result: 成立（贴线·按 09-28 改定的开奖规则；按立案原文 09-28 即应收回）
09.17Short bank insurance was gone while long insurance was boughtAlso: XLF, GS, JPM, BAC, C, WFCconfirmed
Settlement
confirmed
confirmed
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.17 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
银行短的保险退了，长的有人买：五家 cm30 全退回 09.15 以下（GS −3.58 / KRE −3.28 / C −3.01 / JPM −2.03 / BAC −1.66 / WFC −1.40）；XLF 近月 P 66120 / C 9481（6.97x）；长天期 2027-01 50P 25214（OI 65721）/ 2027-12 50P 25008（OI 7972）/ 2028-12 45P 22000（OI 13603），行权价低 10.5%–19.5%，三档各两万多张像一个买家铺梯子；股价 XLF −0.09 / KRE 0.00 在全市场 +1.13% 的日子没跟
Test: 09-18 晨 行情尺 核三档 OI 未增 ⇒ 当天进出，收回；09.24 前 XLF 收回 57 上方 ⇒ 股价半句收回。🔴 OI 最晚取数日 09-18
银行短的保险退了，长的有人买：五家 cm30 全退回 09.15 以下（GS −3.58 / KRE −3.28 / C −3.01 / JPM −2.03 / BAC −1.66 / WFC −1.40）；XLF 近月 P 66120 / C 9481（6.97x）；长天期 2027-01 50P 25214（OI 65721）/ 2027-12 50P 25008（OI 7972）/ 2028-12 45P 22000（OI 13603），行权价低 10.5%–19.5%，三档各两万多张像一个买家铺梯子；股价 XLF −0.09 / KRE 0.00 在全市场 +1.13% 的日子没跟
Test: 09-18 晨 行情尺 核三档 OI 未增 ⇒ 当天进出，收回；09.24 前 XLF 收回 57 上方 ⇒ 股价半句收回。🔴 OI 最晚取数日 09-18
09.24 Settled
成立结清：股价半句未触发收回，XLF 09-17 起收盘 55.88 / 55.86 / 55.90 / 54.80 / 54.54 / 54.53，最高 55.93（09-16）以下，从没回到 57；长的半句 09-18 晨已成立（三档 OI 65721→90528 / 7972→32972 / 13603→35103，留 99%）。全案成立：银行短的保险退了、长的有人买，金融板块股价也没跟上
Result: 成立
成立结清：股价半句未触发收回，XLF 09-17 起收盘 55.88 / 55.86 / 55.90 / 54.80 / 54.54 / 54.53，最高 55.93（09-16）以下，从没回到 57；长的半句 09-18 晨已成立（三档 OI 65721→90528 / 7972→32972 / 13603→35103，留 99%）。全案成立：银行短的保险退了、长的有人买，金融板块股价也没跟上
Result: 成立
09.16On hike day the repricing hit banks, and the reason is the curveAlso: GS, WFC, BAC, C, JPMconfirmed
Settlement
confirmed
confirmed
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.16 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
加息日被重新定价的是银行，理由在曲线：GS −3.96 / WFC −2.98 / BAC −2.72 / C −2.36 / KRE −1.77 / JPM −1.01；两年期 4.738% 高点（2024-07 以来最高）、十年期 4.994、三十年 5.338、2s10s 27.5bp 6/30 以来最平；Δcm30 GS +2.56 / KRE +1.89 / BAC +1.56 / C +1.16 / JPM +1.03 / WFC +0.98 第三天全涨。银行股价跌、保费涨＝有人在卖；半导体股价涨、保费也涨＝边买边保
Test: 09.18 前银行五只 cm30 回落到 09-15 水平以下（GS <36.33 / BAC <26.35 / C <32.76 / JPM <26.13 / WFC <29.75）⇒ 只是决议日一天行情，收回。只引 15:45 主枪
加息日被重新定价的是银行，理由在曲线：GS −3.96 / WFC −2.98 / BAC −2.72 / C −2.36 / KRE −1.77 / JPM −1.01；两年期 4.738% 高点（2024-07 以来最高）、十年期 4.994、三十年 5.338、2s10s 27.5bp 6/30 以来最平；Δcm30 GS +2.56 / KRE +1.89 / BAC +1.56 / C +1.16 / JPM +1.03 / WFC +0.98 第三天全涨。银行股价跌、保费涨＝有人在卖；半导体股价涨、保费也涨＝边买边保
Test: 09.18 前银行五只 cm30 回落到 09-15 水平以下（GS <36.33 / BAC <26.35 / C <32.76 / JPM <26.13 / WFC <29.75）⇒ 只是决议日一天行情，收回。只引 15:45 主枪
09.17 Settled
保费半句收回：15:45 主枪 cm30 GS 35.31 / BAC 26.25 / C 30.91 / JPM 25.13 / WFC 29.33，五只全回落到 09-15 以下，三天的加价是决议日对冲。股价半句保留：全市场 +1.13% 而 XLF −0.09 / KRE 0.00 / JPM +0.11 / C −0.18 / WFC −0.18（GS +1.43）
Test: 股价半句 09-18 再看一天
Result: 半收回
保费半句收回：15:45 主枪 cm30 GS 35.31 / BAC 26.25 / C 30.91 / JPM 25.13 / WFC 29.33，五只全回落到 09-15 以下，三天的加价是决议日对冲。股价半句保留：全市场 +1.13% 而 XLF −0.09 / KRE 0.00 / JPM +0.11 / C −0.18 / WFC −0.18（GS +1.43）
Test: 股价半句 09-18 再看一天
Result: 半收回
09.18 Settled
股价半句成立结清：五家一周 GS −8.47 / BAC −7.91 / C −5.08 / WFC −4.62 / JPM −1.84，GS 09-18 收 942.00 跌破 200 日线 948.67（前复权）；保费半句 09-17 已收回
Result: 成立
股价半句成立结清：五家一周 GS −8.47 / BAC −7.91 / C −5.08 / WFC −4.62 / JPM −1.84，GS 09-18 收 942.00 跌破 200 日线 948.67（前复权）；保费半句 09-17 已收回
Result: 成立
Cases for every name are in Chapter III of the options page. The ledger is append-only; a revision is a new row.
IV
Other names
SPY
QQQ
IWM
TLT
SMH
XLF
XLK
XLV
AAPL
AMZN
GOOG
GOOGL
META
MSFT
NVDA
TSLA
SPCX
AVGO
TSM
AMD
INTC
MU
SNDK
MRVL
QCOM
SKHY
SMCI
DELL
ORCL
PLTR
CRWV
NBIS
COIN
HOOD
MSTR
SOFI
JPM
BAC
C
WFC
GS
V
MA
AXP
MS
SCHW
BLK
BRK.B
CRCL
WMT
COST
HD
TJX
MCD
KO
RACE
MC.PA
RMS.PA
How to read this page
· The one-year percentile and the 30-day and one-year implied vols come from two different sources; each is compared only with its own past, and the two are never spliced together.
· The 30-day and one-year vols are constant-maturity: interpolated between the two nearest expiries to exactly 30 and 365 days, read once before each close.
· A big-print row is one contract's full-day total, not a single trade. Without per-trade timestamps or aggressor side we state premium traded only.
· Every reading is cross-checked against two independent sources and updated once after the close. Raw data is not provided on this site.
· Data and information only; not investment advice; no buy or sell recommendations.
· The one-year percentile and the 30-day and one-year implied vols come from two different sources; each is compared only with its own past, and the two are never spliced together.
· The 30-day and one-year vols are constant-maturity: interpolated between the two nearest expiries to exactly 30 and 365 days, read once before each close.
· A big-print row is one contract's full-day total, not a single trade. Without per-trade timestamps or aggressor side we state premium traded only.
· Every reading is cross-checked against two independent sources and updated once after the close. Raw data is not provided on this site.
· Data and information only; not investment advice; no buy or sell recommendations.
Today's read on this name is in the subscriber email; past issues go public the next day.