Options / Tickers / IWM
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)
Is protection on IWM cheap or dear today, where has the money been placed, how did the past month play out, and how did the judgments we filed on IWM settle? Updated after every close, with right and wrong judgments alike left on the record.
Data date 10.07 · close 279.92 (—) · −8.28% from the 52-week high
Where it stands today
Where one-month protection (30-day implied volatility) sits within its past-year range, 0 the cheapest and 100 the dearest. Protection on IWM is now in the cheaper part of the past year.
The one-year sits 3.40 points above the 30-day, the usual shape: a longer policy covers more.
Centred on the previous close of 281.34, option prices imply 278.33 to 284.35 at this week's expiry. A close outside it at expiry means the option sellers lose.
Calls outtraded puts. It counts contracts, not direction: a put buyer may be insuring shares they own.
Levels from high to low, with distance from the close:
| Flip level | 292.23 | +4.40% | Above it, dealer hedging damps moves; below it, hedging amplifies them. |
| Call wall | 285 | +1.81% | The strike with the most call open interest: an upside target someone has already made a down payment on. |
| Expected move, high | 284.35 | +1.58% | Centred on the previous close: the implied top at this week's expiry. |
| Put wall | 280 | +0.03% | The strike with the most put open interest: protection someone already paid for. |
| Close | 279.92 | ||
| Expected move, low | 278.33 | −0.57% | Centred on the previous close: the implied bottom at this week's expiry. |
Data date 10.07. Updated once after each trading day's close; spot is the official close.
The last 30 trading days
Close, flip level, put wall and call wall, day by day: which side of the walls price is on, and whether the walls moved.
One-year and 30-day implied vol, day by day. The short line jumping while the long line holds means only the near-term event is being repriced; the long line rising too means the whole story is.
Shown: the last 30 trading days. Earlier records are in Chapter V (walls) and Chapter VII (implied vol) of the options page.
Today's big prints
No IWM contract made today's leaderboard.
Data date only. The board for every name is in Chapter IV of the options page.
Every case we filed on it
Each judgment is written down with its test before the fact, settled by that test, and left standing when wrong. These are all the cases that name IWM, none removed. Open one for the original filing.
09.23The October small-cap puts are newly bought index insurance, not old positions changing hands.confirmed
confirmed
小盘股十月看跌是新买的指数保护，不是老仓换手：10.16 269P 一天成交 80984 张对原持仓 487（166 倍）；近月小盘股看跌 75 万张、是看涨 6.3 倍
Test: 09-24 晨结算留存 <50% ⇒ 当天进出，收回
成立结清：09-24 晨结算留存 88.6%，远过 50%。IWM 2026-10-16 269P 原持仓 487 → 72223（ΔOI 71736 ÷ 当日成交 80984）。十月小盘股看跌过夜大部分留下，是买保护建仓，不是过路钱
Result: 成立
09.16Bonds are betting the peak is in on a two-week to one-month horizon while stocks started buying October insuranceAlso: TLT, SPYRight, it stands on its terms
Right, it stands on its terms: the bond half (betting rates had peaked) would be withdrawn only if, before Sep 30, the long-Treasury fund closed below 80 and open interest in the Oct 16 83 call stopped rising, both at once. The fund closed at 77.78 on Sep 30, meeting the first; the 83 call open interest rose from 151602 on Sep 17 to 206070 at the Sep 29 settlement, so the second was not met. The bet is still there and so far it is losing: the 83 call closed at 9 cents; open interest in the 80 call went from 69172 to 135120, and on Sep 30 another 96813 Nov 30 83 calls traded against open interest of 3495, so holders are moving strikes down and dates out, not giving up
债市押利率见顶（两周到一个月），股市开始为十月买保险：TLT vol≥1000 档看涨 227716 对看跌 41599（10.16 83C 44054 / 82C 22325 / 80C 13308；09.30 82/83/84C 各约 1.7 万），TLT 收 80.88（+0.21）、cm30 12.00（−0.87）；IWM 10.16 270–273P 216111（全天 P 416560 / C 107315）；SPY 10.16 P 198039 / C 91599、09.30 P 105223 / C 58232；SPY cm30 14.46（09-15 13.91）
Test: ①09.18 前 SPY cm30 <14 ⇒ 股票买保险那半句是三巫对冲，收回；②09.30 前 TLT 收 <80 且 10.16 83C OI 不增 ⇒ 债市押见顶那半句收回。近月表只引 EOD 轮 vol≥1000 档；OI 明早 行情尺 取（83C 823584368 / 82C 823584251 / 80C 823584050）
股市半句收回：SPY cm30 12.30 <14（比 09-11 的 12.45 还低），昨天那批是三巫前对冲；但 IWM 10.16 270–273P 09-17 晨 OI +52164（留 24%）、09-17 又成交 299053（P/C 3.89）并记。债市半句成立第一天：TLT 收 81.78，10.16 83C OI 125772→151602（+25830，留 59%）/ 82C +8592 / 80C +6733（合计留 52%），09-17 TLT 看涨 279207 张第三天放大，10.23 83C 新开 27512
Test: 债市半句照原条件（09.30 前 TLT <80 且 83C OI 不增 ⇒ 收回）
Result: 半收回
对，按判据成立：债市押利率见顶那半句的推翻条件是 09.30 前长债基金收在 80 以下、并且 10.16 约定价 83 的看涨持仓不再增加，两条要同时满足。长债基金 09.30 收 77.78，第一条碰了；83C 持仓从 09-17 的 151602 张增加到 09-29 结算的 206070 张，第二条没碰。押注还在，但押的方向到今天是亏的：83C 收在 0.09 美元；同批 80C 持仓 69172→135120，09-30 又有 11-30 到期 83C 成交 96813 张对持仓 3495，押注的人在往下挪价、往后挪时间，没有认输
Result: 对
09.11What got cheaper today is protection for the meeting day, not for the road after the hikeAlso: SPY, QQQ, TLT, MOVEconfirmed
confirmed
今天便宜下来的是议息那一天的保护，加息之后那段路的保护没便宜：29 个标的三十天保护价钱无一上涨（SPY cm30 14.35→12.45 本表最大单日降幅、QQQ 20.12→17.39、TLT 12.59→10.91）、VIX9D 17.70→14.47、VIX1Y 22.23→21.75，同日 MOVE 82.09→82.21 一分没便宜。给股票做保护的人退了，给利率做保护的人没退
Test: ①09.16 后 MOVE 若跌回 76 以下 ⇒ 给利率做保护的人也退了，收回；②09.15 前 SPY cm30 若重回 14 以上 ⇒ 今日之便宜为到期日对冲消失（09-11 到期 6.69 亿），收回。MOVE 只引 每日MOVE.csv，cm30 只引 15:45 主枪
② 未触发：SPY cm30 09-15 15:45 主枪 13.91 <14 ⇒ 09-11 的便宜不是到期日对冲消失；① 待 09.16 后 MOVE（09-15 83.71 / 34.9）
Test: ① 09.16 后 MOVE <76 ⇒ 收回
Result: 保留
成立结清：MOVE 09-16 80.73 >76，给利率做保护的人没退；SPY cm30 09-15 前未过 14，到期日对冲说不成立；09-17 SPY cm30 12.30 又低于 09-11 的 12.45
Result: 成立
09.10The sellers acted in the index and in long bonds on heavy volume and took no view on single namesAlso: SMH, TLT, SPY, INTC, MU, SNDK, AMDStands
Stands
卖的人在指数与长债上放量动手，没在个股上表态：SMH 1.91x / TLT 1.49x / IWM 1.41x / SPY 1.29x 对 INTC 0.99x / MU 1.08x / SNDK 0.90x / AMD 0.72x；同日指数 cm30 +1.24/+1.10 而单票 cm30 全退
Test: 09.11 若存储链放量（成交量 >1.3 倍昨日）续跌，则个股层面开始交货，收回。量比只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15 的 volume/prev_volume；IV 只引 15:45 主枪
卖的人在指数与长债上放量动手，没在个股上表态——终审
Test: 09.11 若存储链放量（成交量 >1.3 倍昨日）续跌，则个股层面开始交货，收回。量比只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15
Result: 保留。SNDK −3.50 / 1.07x、MU −0.22 / 0.83x、INTC +2.61 / 0.90x，无一放量 >1.3x；缩量续跌＝无人问津，不是有人交货
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MC.PA
RMS.PA· The one-year percentile and the 30-day and one-year implied vols come from two different sources; each is compared only with its own past, and the two are never spliced together.
· The 30-day and one-year vols are constant-maturity: interpolated between the two nearest expiries to exactly 30 and 365 days, read once before each close.
· A big-print row is one contract's full-day total, not a single trade. Without per-trade timestamps or aggressor side we state premium traded only.
· Every reading is cross-checked against two independent sources and updated once after the close. Raw data is not provided on this site.
· Data and information only; not investment advice; no buy or sell recommendations.
Today's read on this name is in the subscriber email; past issues go public the next day.