Options / Tickers / TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)
Is protection on Taiwan Semiconductor cheap or dear today, where has the money been placed, how did the past month play out, and how did the judgments we filed on Taiwan Semiconductor settle? Updated after every close, with right and wrong judgments alike left on the record.
Data date 10.07 · close 476.54 (—) · −2.24% from the 52-week high
Where it stands today
Where one-month protection (30-day implied volatility) sits within its past-year range, 0 the cheapest and 100 the dearest. Protection on Taiwan Semiconductor is now in the cheapest stretch of the past year.
The one-year sits 6.31 points above the 30-day, the usual shape: a longer policy covers more.
Centred on the previous close of 482.3, option prices imply 473.22 to 491.38 at this week's expiry. A close outside it at expiry means the option sellers lose.
Calls outtraded puts. It counts contracts, not direction: a put buyer may be insuring shares they own.
Levels from high to low, with distance from the close:
| Call wall | 500 | +4.92% | The strike with the most call open interest: an upside target someone has already made a down payment on. |
| Expected move, high | 491.38 | +3.11% | Centred on the previous close: the implied top at this week's expiry. |
| Close | 476.54 | ||
| Expected move, low | 473.22 | −0.70% | Centred on the previous close: the implied bottom at this week's expiry. |
| Flip level | 433.86 | −8.96% | Above it, dealer hedging damps moves; below it, hedging amplifies them. |
| Put wall | 400 | −16.06% | The strike with the most put open interest: protection someone already paid for. |
Data date 10.07. Updated once after each trading day's close; spot is the official close.
The last 30 trading days
Close, flip level, put wall and call wall, day by day: which side of the walls price is on, and whether the walls moved.
One-year and 30-day implied vol, day by day. The short line jumping while the long line holds means only the near-term event is being repriced; the long line rising too means the whole story is.
Shown: the last 30 trading days. Earlier records are in Chapter V (walls) and Chapter VII (implied vol) of the options page.
Today's big prints
No Taiwan Semiconductor contract made today's leaderboard.
Data date only. The board for every name is in Chapter IV of the options page.
Valuation and profitability
The latest P/E (2026.10.02) is 34.9, the 90th percentile of 29 readings since 2000 (0 is the cheapest in that history, 100 the dearest; past readings are taken at quarter-ends). Taiwan Semiconductor is compared only with its own past.
At the latest quarter-end: ROE 39.1% (2026.06.30), ROIC 46.3% (2025.12.31).
As of 2026.10.03, updated weekly. Full profit, return, valuation and dividend charts are in the Tech stock view.
Every case we filed on it
Each judgment is written down with its test before the fact, settled by that test, and left standing when wrong. These are all the cases that name Taiwan Semiconductor, none removed. Open one for the original filing.
09.14Protection sellers treated the bank guidance as new information and did not treat the letter as new informationAlso: GS, WFC, JPM, BAC, C, MU, SNDK, INTC, AMD, AVGO, NVDAconfirmed
confirmed
卖保护的人把银行的指引当成了新信息，没把那封信当成新信息：cm30 单日变化 GS +3.51 / WFC +2.99 / JPM +2.74 / BAC +2.39 / C +2.19 对 MU −0.04 / AMD +0.58 / AVGO +1.02 / NVDA +1.87 / TSM +2.01；cm365 MU 61.81→59.71（−2.10）、SNDK −1.61、INTC −1.01。起因＝美国银行 CEO 巴克莱会议：三季度交易收入持平、投行费用降一成
Test: 09.16 决议后 MU cm30 抬过 62 而股价不反弹 ⇒ 保护市场补定价了那封信，收回。只引 每日恒定期限IV.csv 15:45 主枪
成立结清：MU cm30 09-17 57.86 <62（09-16 58.43）；银行三天涨的保费 09-17 一天退光，改价方向对了、持久性没有
Result: 成立
08.08The 08-06 issue stated in the body text that "the two strikes together came to roughly $78.2MErratum
08-06 那期正文写「两档合计约 7820 万美元：500 看涨 4188 万，560 看涨 3632 万」。按本刊自己的口径（权利金＝张数 × 当天收盘价 × 100）复算，560 看涨那一档应为 3573 万，不是 3632 万。
Test: 券商 prior-close 独立取值：TSM 2026-12-18 560C = 11.07（该合约最后成交时间戳落在 2026-08-07 10:49 ET，故 prior-close 即 08-06 收盘）。32276 × 11.07 × 100 = 35729532 美元 = 3573 万。已发出的 3632 万反推价格为 11.2529，非 08-06 收盘价。
Result: 560 看涨那一档确认错报，差 59 万（偏高 1.7%）。500 看涨那一档今日无法核实（该合约 prior-close 该源反复返回空），4188 万与 4205 万两说均未证实，合计数因此同样未证实。
Cases for every name are in Chapter III of the options page. The ledger is append-only; a revision is a new row.
Other names
Decades of Taiwan Semiconductor price history and drawdowns are in The Archive · Tech.
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RMS.PA· The one-year percentile and the 30-day and one-year implied vols come from two different sources; each is compared only with its own past, and the two are never spliced together.
· The 30-day and one-year vols are constant-maturity: interpolated between the two nearest expiries to exactly 30 and 365 days, read once before each close.
· A big-print row is one contract's full-day total, not a single trade. Without per-trade timestamps or aggressor side we state premium traded only.
· Every reading is cross-checked against two independent sources and updated once after the close. Raw data is not provided on this site.
· Valuation ratios, margins and returns are computed from the company's filed quarterly and annual reports, on the same basis as the sector stock view, and updated weekly.
· The P/E percentile compares the company only with its own quarter-end record, never with other companies, and is not spliced with the current readings above.
· Data and information only; not investment advice; no buy or sell recommendations.
Today's read on this name is in the subscriber email; past issues go public the next day.