Options / Tickers / AMD
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Is protection on Advanced Micro Devices cheap or dear today, where has the money been placed, how did the past month play out, and how did the judgments we filed on Advanced Micro Devices settle? Updated after every close, with right and wrong judgments alike left on the record.
Data date 10.07 · close 641.05 (—) · −2.65% from the 52-week high
Where it stands today
Where one-month protection (30-day implied volatility) sits within its past-year range, 0 the cheapest and 100 the dearest. Protection on Advanced Micro Devices is now in the cheaper part of the past year.
The 30-day sits 1.19 points above the one-year: something near-term is being priced on its own.
Centred on the previous close of 649.42, option prices imply 630.67 to 668.17 at this week's expiry. A close outside it at expiry means the option sellers lose.
Calls outtraded puts. It counts contracts, not direction: a put buyer may be insuring shares they own.
Levels from high to low, with distance from the close:
| Call wall | 700 | +9.20% | The strike with the most call open interest: an upside target someone has already made a down payment on. |
| Expected move, high | 668.17 | +4.23% | Centred on the previous close: the implied top at this week's expiry. |
| Close | 641.05 | ||
| Expected move, low | 630.67 | −1.62% | Centred on the previous close: the implied bottom at this week's expiry. |
| Put wall | 600 | −6.40% | The strike with the most put open interest: protection someone already paid for. |
| Flip level | 598.85 | −6.58% | Above it, dealer hedging damps moves; below it, hedging amplifies them. |
Data date 10.07. Updated once after each trading day's close; spot is the official close.
The last 30 trading days
Close, flip level, put wall and call wall, day by day: which side of the walls price is on, and whether the walls moved.
One-year and 30-day implied vol, day by day. The short line jumping while the long line holds means only the near-term event is being repriced; the long line rising too means the whole story is.
Shown: the last 30 trading days. Earlier records are in Chapter V (walls) and Chapter VII (implied vol) of the options page.
Today's big prints
Today Advanced Micro Devices calls traded $6.2M in premium and puts $2.8M. Traded, not bought: we cannot see who bought and who sold.
No Advanced Micro Devices contract made today's leaderboard.
Data date only. The board for every name is in Chapter IV of the options page.
Valuation and profitability
The latest P/E (2026.10.02) is 163.0, the 87th percentile of 55 readings since 1995 (0 is the cheapest in that history, 100 the dearest; past readings are taken at quarter-ends). Advanced Micro Devices is compared only with its own past.
At the latest quarter-end: ROE 10.1% (2026.06.30), ROIC 8.9% (2026.06.30).
As of 2026.10.03, updated weekly. Full profit, return, valuation and dividend charts are in the Tech stock view.
Every case we filed on it
Each judgment is written down with its test before the fact, settled by that test, and left standing when wrong. These are all the cases that name Advanced Micro Devices, none removed. Open one for the original filing.
09.22The CPU story was accepted on day twoAlso: QCOM, INTCconfirmed
confirmed
昨天那条 Agent 把 CPU 重新定价的故事，第二天被接受了：追的人不再为它多买保护。AMD 涨 1.34% 而 cm30 −2.15，高通涨 2.08% 而 −1.42；英特尔是例外，cm30 +0.68 到 72.86 仍是全表最贵
Test: 09-25 前 AMD 与高通股价续涨而 cm30 双双回到 09-21 的 54.45 与 52.74 之上 ⇒ 追的人又开始买保护，收回
成立结清：收回要 AMD 与高通股价续涨且 cm30 双双回到 09-21 的 54.45 / 52.74 之上。股价续涨了（AMD 623.77→630.63、高通 198.27→201.97），cm30 却一直在线下：AMD 52.30 / 51.56 / 50.56，高通 51.32 / 50.76 / 49.33 / 49.67（09-22 / 09-23 / 09-24 / 09-25；AMD 09-23 为 50.95）。故事被接受后，追的人没再回头买保护
Result: 成立
09.21A stock rising with its insurance is the chasers attaching protection, not a short squeeze.Also: INTC, META, QCOM, MSTRconfirmed
confirmed
股价涨保险跟着涨，是追的人自己在买保护，不是空头回补。INTC cm30 +9.49 / META +7.05 / QCOM +6.36 / MSTR +6.25 / AMD +5.63，同日 SPY cm30 12.22 不动
Test: 09.25 前这五只里三只以上股价续涨而 cm30 回落到 09-18 水平以下（62.69/37.64/46.38/67.70/48.82）⇒ 是空头回补，收回。cm30 只引 15:45 主枪
成立结清：收回要三只以上「股价续涨且 cm30 回落到 09-18 以下」，一只都没有。股价对 09-21 收盘：INTC 121.78→123.00、META 741.25→751.66、QCOM 194.23→201.97、AMD 615.52→630.63 续涨，MSTR 168.50→158.61 回落；cm30（15:45 主枪）09-25 对 09-18 基准：INTC 72.88/62.69、META 41.30/37.64、QCOM 49.67/46.38、AMD 50.56/48.82，全部仍在基准之上（MSTR 64.17/67.70 回落但股价没涨）。追的人买的保护一周后退了一部分（四只都比 09-21 峰值低），没有退回原位
Result: 成立
09.17Withdrawn: the money that left came back.Also: SMH, TLT, INTC, SNDK, MUwithdrawn
withdrawn
收回：退出去的钱回来了。收回条件「决议后 SMH 与 TLT 同日领涨」成立：SMH +2.75（板块 ETF 第一）、TLT +1.11（债券 ETF 第一）；回来第一天买的是 INTC intra +3.92 / SMCI +6.09 / SNDK +3.19 / MU +2.40 / AMD +2.15（跳空表 EOD 17:15）
Result: 收回
09.17The money that left came back to chips, and the buyers are insuring a year outAlso: SMH, INTC, SMCI, SNDK, MUconfirmed
confirmed
退出去的钱回到了芯片，回来的人在配一年期保险：SMH +2.75 板块第一；盘中（开盘到收盘）INTC +3.92 / SMCI +6.09 / SNDK +3.19 / MU +2.40 / AMD +2.15，量比 1.1–2.0x；cm365 INTC +3.58 / SMCI +2.74 / AMD +1.38 / SNDK +1.18 / MU +0.82；同日 SPY 开盘到收盘 −0.07%、量 0.84x，指数的涨是跳出来的
Test: 09.24 前 SMH 收回 09.16 的 545.56 以下且芯片 cm365 回落到 09.16 水平 ⇒ 一天反弹，收回。cm365 只引 15:45 主枪，两段只引跳空表 EOD
成立结清：收回要两条同时满足，第一条就没满足。SMH 09-17 起收盘 560.61 / 573.00 / 596.03 / 607.46 / 601.41 / 600.52，从没回到 09-16 的 545.56 以下；芯片 cm365 09-24 全在 09-16 之上：INTC 60.80→66.71、AMD 54.63→56.45、MU 57.59→60.34、SMCI 75.06→77.77、SNDK 70.48→71.96、SMH 37.44→38.71。回来的钱没走，一年期保险也没退
Result: 成立
09.14The letter changed the overnight price and did not change the session's positionsAlso: SMH, MU, SNDK, INTC, QCOM, NVDA, AVGO, ARMholds
holds
AI 放缓那封信改变的是夜里的价，没有改变白天的仓位：SMH 跳空 −5.02 白天 +0.28（2.01x）；MU −7.10/+1.99、SNDK −6.85/+2.00、AMD −5.78/+1.47、INTC −6.92/+1.43、QCOM −6.15/+5.49 白天全被买回；NVDA −3.23/−0.13、AVGO −3.41/−1.40、ARM −8.46/−1.39 没人接。白天被买回的名单与 FT 09-11 报道 Situational Awareness 用深度价外看涨重建仓位的名单（AMD/INTC/SKHY/SNDK/CRWV）重合
Test: 09.15 SMH 开盘跳空超过 −2% 且白天不再买回 ⇒ 今日的买回是空头回补，收回。只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15
保留：SMH 09-15 跳空 +0.94 白天 −0.82 收 +0.11，成交量 0.57x，缩量回落＝无人问津不是交货；MU +1.46/−1.06、SNDK +1.14/−2.47、INTC +1.69/−1.71、NVDA +1.14/−0.56、AVGO +0.38/−1.96；QCOM +0.21/+4.02 例外
Test: 收回条件（gap ≤−2% 且白天不买回）未触发
Result: 保留
09.14Protection sellers treated the bank guidance as new information and did not treat the letter as new informationAlso: GS, WFC, JPM, BAC, C, MU, SNDK, INTC, AVGO, NVDA, TSMconfirmed
confirmed
卖保护的人把银行的指引当成了新信息，没把那封信当成新信息：cm30 单日变化 GS +3.51 / WFC +2.99 / JPM +2.74 / BAC +2.39 / C +2.19 对 MU −0.04 / AMD +0.58 / AVGO +1.02 / NVDA +1.87 / TSM +2.01；cm365 MU 61.81→59.71（−2.10）、SNDK −1.61、INTC −1.01。起因＝美国银行 CEO 巴克莱会议：三季度交易收入持平、投行费用降一成
Test: 09.16 决议后 MU cm30 抬过 62 而股价不反弹 ⇒ 保护市场补定价了那封信，收回。只引 每日恒定期限IV.csv 15:45 主枪
成立结清：MU cm30 09-17 57.86 <62（09-16 58.43）；银行三天涨的保费 09-17 一天退光，改价方向对了、持久性没有
Result: 成立
09.10The sellers acted in the index and in long bonds on heavy volume and took no view on single namesAlso: SMH, TLT, IWM, SPY, INTC, MU, SNDKStands
Stands
卖的人在指数与长债上放量动手，没在个股上表态：SMH 1.91x / TLT 1.49x / IWM 1.41x / SPY 1.29x 对 INTC 0.99x / MU 1.08x / SNDK 0.90x / AMD 0.72x；同日指数 cm30 +1.24/+1.10 而单票 cm30 全退
Test: 09.11 若存储链放量（成交量 >1.3 倍昨日）续跌，则个股层面开始交货，收回。量比只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15 的 volume/prev_volume；IV 只引 15:45 主枪
卖的人在指数与长债上放量动手，没在个股上表态——终审
Test: 09.11 若存储链放量（成交量 >1.3 倍昨日）续跌，则个股层面开始交货，收回。量比只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15
Result: 保留。SNDK −3.50 / 1.07x、MU −0.22 / 0.83x、INTC +2.61 / 0.90x，无一放量 >1.3x；缩量续跌＝无人问津，不是有人交货
08.1908-19 was not a risk-off day: the four hardest-hit names all traded lighter than usual , so the decline came from absent buyers rather than selling pr…Also: SPY, QQQ, MSTR, COIN, AVGO, INTC, NVDARight — neither falsifying condition triggered
Right — neither falsifying condition triggered. First: "if 08-20 brings a comparable decline on 1.5x or more volume, the no-sellers half fails." On 08-20 the four hardest-hit names printed AVGO +0.43%, RDDT -0.92%, INTC -0.72% and AMD +0.65% — none came close to the 3.71% to 4.61% declines of 08-19, so the premise never appeared and that half stands. Second: "if the high-beta group gives it all back, the long-end-and-weak-dollar half fails." MSTR rose 7.81%, COIN 7.58%, CVNA 1.53% and MARA 15.54%, while HOOD slipped 0.70% — four of five kept rising, which is not a full give-back, so that half stands as well.
08-19 不是避险日：跌得最狠的四只全部缩量（0.68~0.94倍），下跌来自买盘缺席而非卖压；当天真正的定价事件是财政部扩大长债回购，不是 FOMC 纪要
Test: 次日两条各自可推翻：①若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能，则「没人卖」这半不成立；②若高贝塔（MSTR/COIN/CVNA/MARA/HOOD）次日全数回吐，则「长端下行与美元走弱驱动」这半不成立。只引 每日跳空.csv 的 chg_pct 与本线量能倍数（当日量÷前20日均量）
08-19 不是避险日：跌得最狠的四只全部缩量（0.68~0.94倍），下跌来自买盘缺席而非卖压；当天真正的定价事件是财政部扩大长债回购，不是 FOMC 纪要——终审
Test: 次日两条各自可推翻：①若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能，则「没人卖」这半不成立；②若高贝塔（MSTR/COIN/CVNA/MARA/HOOD）次日全数回吐，则「长端下行与美元走弱驱动」这半不成立。只引 每日跳空.csv 的 chg_pct 与本线量能倍数（当日量÷前20日均量）
Result: 对(两条推翻条件均未触发)。①「若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能则『没人卖』半不成立」——08-19 跌最狠四只在 08-20 的表现为 AVGO +0.43%、RDDT -0.92%、INTC -0.72%、AMD +0.65%，无一只出现同等跌幅(08-19 为 -3.71~-4.61%)，前提未出现 ⇒ 该半未被推翻。②「若高贝塔全数回吐则『长端下行与美元走弱驱动』半不成立」——MSTR +7.81%、COIN +7.58%、CVNA +1.53%、MARA +15.54%、HOOD -0.70%，五只中四只继续上涨、仅 HOOD 微跌 ⇒ 非「全数回吐」，该半亦未被推翻。
Cases for every name are in Chapter III of the options page. The ledger is append-only; a revision is a new row.
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Decades of Advanced Micro Devices price history and drawdowns are in The Archive · Tech.
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MC.PA
RMS.PA· The one-year percentile and the 30-day and one-year implied vols come from two different sources; each is compared only with its own past, and the two are never spliced together.
· The 30-day and one-year vols are constant-maturity: interpolated between the two nearest expiries to exactly 30 and 365 days, read once before each close.
· A big-print row is one contract's full-day total, not a single trade. Without per-trade timestamps or aggressor side we state premium traded only.
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· Valuation ratios, margins and returns are computed from the company's filed quarterly and annual reports, on the same basis as the sector stock view, and updated weekly.
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