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Amazon (AMZN)

Is protection on Amazon cheap or dear today, where has the money been placed, how did the past month play out, and how did the judgments we filed on Amazon settle? Updated after every close, with right and wrong judgments alike left on the record.

Data date 10.07 · close 257.3 (—) · −10.41% from the 52-week high

I

Where it stands today

One-year IV percentile70 / 100

Where one-month protection (30-day implied volatility) sits within its past-year range, 0 the cheapest and 100 the dearest. Protection on Amazon is now in the pricier part of the past year.

30-day / one-year implied vol (%)39.82 / 36.35

The 30-day sits 3.47 points above the one-year: something near-term is being priced on its own.

Expected move this week±1.9% ±4.82

Centred on the previous close of 256.29, option prices imply 251.47 to 261.11 at this week's expiry. A close outside it at expiry means the option sellers lose.

Put ÷ call (volume / open interest)0.32 / 0.42

Calls outtraded puts. It counts contracts, not direction: a put buyer may be insuring shares they own.

Levels from high to low, with distance from the close:

Expected move, high261.11+1.48%Centred on the previous close: the implied top at this week's expiry.
Call wall260+1.05%The strike with the most call open interest: an upside target someone has already made a down payment on.
Close257.3
Expected move, low251.47−2.27%Centred on the previous close: the implied bottom at this week's expiry.
Put wall250−2.84%The strike with the most put open interest: protection someone already paid for.
Flip level243.55−5.34%Above it, dealer hedging damps moves; below it, hedging amplifies them.

Data date 10.07. Updated once after each trading day's close; spot is the official close.

II

The last 30 trading days

Close, flip level, put wall and call wall, day by day: which side of the walls price is on, and whether the walls moved.

One-year and 30-day implied vol, day by day. The short line jumping while the long line holds means only the near-term event is being repriced; the long line rising too means the whole story is.

Shown: the last 30 trading days. Earlier records are in Chapter V (walls) and Chapter VII (implied vol) of the options page.

III

Today's big prints

No Amazon contract made today's leaderboard.

Data date only. The board for every name is in Chapter IV of the options page.

IV

Valuation and profitability

P/E (TTM)
20.0
Forward P/E
24.0
P/S
3.5
P/B
4.9
ROE
30.6%
Gross margin
50.8%
Net margin
17.4%

The latest P/E (2026.10.02) is 20.2, the 3rd percentile of 79 readings since 2004 (0 is the cheapest in that history, 100 the dearest; past readings are taken at quarter-ends). Amazon is compared only with its own past.

At the latest quarter-end: ROE 30.5% (2026.06.30), ROIC 15.9% (2026.06.30).

As of 2026.10.03, updated weekly. Full profit, return, valuation and dividend charts are in the Tech stock view.

V

Every case we filed on it

Each judgment is written down with its test before the fact, settled by that test, and left standing when wrong. These are all the cases that name Amazon, none removed. Open one for the original filing.

1cases since 07.22
1settled
0open
07.22The 11.2k five-leg print is a single cross-name program orderAlso: AAPL, GOOGRight
Settlement
Right.
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
07.22 Filed (confidence: More likely)
11.2k 五腿(全1016)为同一跨票程序单
Test: 次晨五腿 OI 齐增且量级相当
07.23 Settled
跨票程序单假说
Result: 对

Cases for every name are in Chapter III of the options page. The ledger is append-only; a revision is a new row.

VI

Other names

Decades of Amazon price history and drawdowns are in The Archive · Tech.

Software · AI CloudORCLPLTRCRWVNBIS
Crypto · BrokersCOINHOODMSTRSOFI
Payments · Brokers · Asset managersVMAAXPMSSCHWBLKBRK.BCRCL
How to read this page
· The one-year percentile and the 30-day and one-year implied vols come from two different sources; each is compared only with its own past, and the two are never spliced together.
· The 30-day and one-year vols are constant-maturity: interpolated between the two nearest expiries to exactly 30 and 365 days, read once before each close.
· A big-print row is one contract's full-day total, not a single trade. Without per-trade timestamps or aggressor side we state premium traded only.
· Every reading is cross-checked against two independent sources and updated once after the close. Raw data is not provided on this site.
· Valuation ratios, margins and returns are computed from the company's filed quarterly and annual reports, on the same basis as the sector stock view, and updated weekly.
· The P/E percentile compares the company only with its own quarter-end record, never with other companies, and is not spliced with the current readings above.
· Data and information only; not investment advice; no buy or sell recommendations.

Today's read on this name is in the subscriber email; past issues go public the next day.