Options / Tickers / SMH

TICKER PAGE · SMH

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)

Is protection on SMH cheap or dear today, where has the money been placed, how did the past month play out, and how did the judgments we filed on SMH settle? Updated after every close, with right and wrong judgments alike left on the record.

Data date 10.07 · close 626 (—) · −6.82% from the 52-week high

I

Where it stands today

One-year IV percentile12 / 100

Where one-month protection (30-day implied volatility) sits within its past-year range, 0 the cheapest and 100 the dearest. Protection on SMH is now in the cheapest stretch of the past year.

30-day / one-year implied vol (%)31.97 / 36.72

The one-year sits 4.75 points above the 30-day, the usual shape: a longer policy covers more.

Expected move this week±1.7% ±10.98

Centred on the previous close of 632.5, option prices imply 621.52 to 643.48 at this week's expiry. A close outside it at expiry means the option sellers lose.

Put ÷ call (volume / open interest)1.78 / 1.75

Puts outtraded calls. It counts contracts, not direction: a put buyer may be insuring shares they own.

Levels from high to low, with distance from the close:

Call wall	650	+3.83%	The strike with the most call open interest: an upside target someone has already made a down payment on.
Expected move, high	643.48	+2.79%	Centred on the previous close: the implied top at this week's expiry.
Put wall	630	+0.64%	The strike with the most put open interest: protection someone already paid for.
Close	626
Expected move, low	621.52	−0.72%	Centred on the previous close: the implied bottom at this week's expiry.
Flip level	601.52	−3.91%	Above it, dealer hedging damps moves; below it, hedging amplifies them.

Data date 10.07. Updated once after each trading day's close; spot is the official close.

II

The last 30 trading days

Close, flip level, put wall and call wall, day by day: which side of the walls price is on, and whether the walls moved.

One-year and 30-day implied vol, day by day. The short line jumping while the long line holds means only the near-term event is being repriced; the long line rising too means the whole story is.

Shown: the last 30 trading days. Earlier records are in Chapter V (walls) and Chapter VII (implied vol) of the options page.

III

Today's big prints

No SMH contract made today's leaderboard.

Data date only. The board for every name is in Chapter IV of the options page.

IV

Every case we filed on it

Each judgment is written down with its test before the fact, settled by that test, and left standing when wrong. These are all the cases that name SMH, none removed. Open one for the original filing.

5cases since 09.10

5settled

0open

09.17Withdrawn: the money that left came back.Also: TLT, INTC, AMD, SNDK, MUwithdrawn

Settlement
withdrawn

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

09.17 Settled
收回：退出去的钱回来了。收回条件「决议后 SMH 与 TLT 同日领涨」成立：SMH +2.75（板块 ETF 第一）、TLT +1.11（债券 ETF 第一）；回来第一天买的是 INTC intra +3.92 / SMCI +6.09 / SNDK +3.19 / MU +2.40 / AMD +2.15（跳空表 EOD 17:15）
Result: 收回

09.17The money that left came back to chips, and the buyers are insuring a year outAlso: INTC, SMCI, AMD, SNDK, MUconfirmed

Settlement
confirmed

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

09.17 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
退出去的钱回到了芯片，回来的人在配一年期保险：SMH +2.75 板块第一；盘中（开盘到收盘）INTC +3.92 / SMCI +6.09 / SNDK +3.19 / MU +2.40 / AMD +2.15，量比 1.1–2.0x；cm365 INTC +3.58 / SMCI +2.74 / AMD +1.38 / SNDK +1.18 / MU +0.82；同日 SPY 开盘到收盘 −0.07%、量 0.84x，指数的涨是跳出来的
Test: 09.24 前 SMH 收回 09.16 的 545.56 以下且芯片 cm365 回落到 09.16 水平 ⇒ 一天反弹，收回。cm365 只引 15:45 主枪，两段只引跳空表 EOD

09.24 Settled
成立结清：收回要两条同时满足，第一条就没满足。SMH 09-17 起收盘 560.61 / 573.00 / 596.03 / 607.46 / 601.41 / 600.52，从没回到 09-16 的 545.56 以下；芯片 cm365 09-24 全在 09-16 之上：INTC 60.80→66.71、AMD 54.63→56.45、MU 57.59→60.34、SMCI 75.06→77.77、SNDK 70.48→71.96、SMH 37.44→38.71。回来的钱没走，一年期保险也没退
Result: 成立

09.14The letter changed the overnight price and did not change the session's positionsAlso: MU, SNDK, AMD, INTC, QCOM, NVDA, AVGO, ARMholds

Settlement
holds

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

09.14 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
AI 放缓那封信改变的是夜里的价，没有改变白天的仓位：SMH 跳空 −5.02 白天 +0.28（2.01x）；MU −7.10/+1.99、SNDK −6.85/+2.00、AMD −5.78/+1.47、INTC −6.92/+1.43、QCOM −6.15/+5.49 白天全被买回；NVDA −3.23/−0.13、AVGO −3.41/−1.40、ARM −8.46/−1.39 没人接。白天被买回的名单与 FT 09-11 报道 Situational Awareness 用深度价外看涨重建仓位的名单（AMD/INTC/SKHY/SNDK/CRWV）重合
Test: 09.15 SMH 开盘跳空超过 −2% 且白天不再买回 ⇒ 今日的买回是空头回补，收回。只引每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15

09.15 Settled
保留：SMH 09-15 跳空 +0.94 白天 −0.82 收 +0.11，成交量 0.57x，缩量回落＝无人问津不是交货；MU +1.46/−1.06、SNDK +1.14/−2.47、INTC +1.69/−1.71、NVDA +1.14/−0.56、AVGO +0.38/−1.96；QCOM +0.21/+4.02 例外
Test: 收回条件（gap ≤−2% 且白天不买回）未触发
Result: 保留

09.10Today's sort key was how soon the cash comes back, not the sectorAlso: XLP, XLU, SHY, IEF, LQD, TLTStands, one of two conditions met

Settlement
Stands, one of two conditions met

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

09.10 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
今天分家的标准是收钱的早晚不是行业：必需消费 +0.05% 对公用事业 −0.98%（昨天 −1.15 / −1.17 几乎同幅）；国债 SHY −0.25 < IEF −0.78 < LQD −0.90 < TLT −1.16 且每档深于昨日；半导体 −2.44 在股票里排最远端
Test: 09.11 CPI 后若 XLU 反超 XLP 且债券阶梯倒转（长端跌得比短端少），则今天的分家是一日噪音，收回。只引行情尺 kline 官方日线收盘

09.11 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
今天分家的标准是收钱的早晚不是行业——终审
Test: 09.11 CPI 后若 XLU 反超 XLP 且债券阶梯倒转（长端跌得比短端少），则今天的分家是一日噪音，收回。只引行情尺 kline 官方日线收盘
Result: 保留（两条件只成立一条）。XLP +0.35 / XLU −0.31 未反超；SHY −0.06 / IEF −0.19 / LQD −0.04 / TLT +0.11 阶梯倒转，长端为四档里唯一收正

09.10The sellers acted in the index and in long bonds on heavy volume and took no view on single namesAlso: TLT, IWM, SPY, INTC, MU, SNDK, AMDStands

Settlement
Stands

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

09.10 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
卖的人在指数与长债上放量动手，没在个股上表态：SMH 1.91x / TLT 1.49x / IWM 1.41x / SPY 1.29x 对 INTC 0.99x / MU 1.08x / SNDK 0.90x / AMD 0.72x；同日指数 cm30 +1.24/+1.10 而单票 cm30 全退
Test: 09.11 若存储链放量（成交量 >1.3 倍昨日）续跌，则个股层面开始交货，收回。量比只引每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15 的 volume/prev_volume；IV 只引 15:45 主枪

09.11 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
卖的人在指数与长债上放量动手，没在个股上表态——终审
Test: 09.11 若存储链放量（成交量 >1.3 倍昨日）续跌，则个股层面开始交货，收回。量比只引每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15
Result: 保留。SNDK −3.50 / 1.07x、MU −0.22 / 0.83x、INTC +2.61 / 0.90x，无一放量 >1.3x；缩量续跌＝无人问津，不是有人交货

Cases for every name are in Chapter III of the options page. The ledger is append-only; a revision is a new row.

V

Other names

Index · ETF

Mag 8

Semis · Memory

Software · AI Cloud

Crypto · Brokers

Banks

C

Payments · Brokers · Asset managers

V

Consumer · Luxury

How to read this page
· The one-year percentile and the 30-day and one-year implied vols come from two different sources; each is compared only with its own past, and the two are never spliced together.
· The 30-day and one-year vols are constant-maturity: interpolated between the two nearest expiries to exactly 30 and 365 days, read once before each close.
· A big-print row is one contract's full-day total, not a single trade. Without per-trade timestamps or aggressor side we state premium traded only.
· Every reading is cross-checked against two independent sources and updated once after the close. Raw data is not provided on this site.
· Data and information only; not investment advice; no buy or sell recommendations.

Today's read on this name is in the subscriber email; past issues go public the next day.