Options / Tickers / SPY
TICKER PAGE · SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Is protection on SPY cheap or dear today, where has the money been placed, how did the past month play out, and how did the judgments we filed on SPY settle? Updated after every close, with right and wrong judgments alike left on the record.
Data date 10.07 · close 777.97 (—) · −0.47% from the 52-week high
I
Where it stands today
One-year IV percentile16 / 100
Where one-month protection (30-day implied volatility) sits within its past-year range, 0 the cheapest and 100 the dearest. Protection on SPY is now in the cheapest stretch of the past year.
30-day / one-year implied vol (%)12.73 / 18.23
The one-year sits 5.50 points above the 30-day, the usual shape: a longer policy covers more.
Expected move this week±0.7% ±5.08
Centred on the previous close of 779.09, option prices imply 774.01 to 784.17 at this week's expiry. A close outside it at expiry means the option sellers lose.
Put ÷ call (volume / open interest)0.88 / 2.24
Calls outtraded puts. It counts contracts, not direction: a put buyer may be insuring shares they own.
Levels from high to low, with distance from the close:
| Call wall | 785 | +0.90% | The strike with the most call open interest: an upside target someone has already made a down payment on. |
| Expected move, high | 784.17 | +0.80% | Centred on the previous close: the implied top at this week's expiry. |
| Close | 777.97 | ||
| Expected move, low | 774.01 | −0.51% | Centred on the previous close: the implied bottom at this week's expiry. |
| Flip level | 772.04 | −0.76% | Above it, dealer hedging damps moves; below it, hedging amplifies them. |
| Put wall | 770 | −1.02% | The strike with the most put open interest: protection someone already paid for. |
Data date 10.07. Updated once after each trading day's close; spot is the official close.
II
The last 30 trading days
Close, flip level, put wall and call wall, day by day: which side of the walls price is on, and whether the walls moved.
One-year and 30-day implied vol, day by day. The short line jumping while the long line holds means only the near-term event is being repriced; the long line rising too means the whole story is.
Shown: the last 30 trading days. Earlier records are in Chapter V (walls) and Chapter VII (implied vol) of the options page.
III
Today's big prints
No SPY contract made today's leaderboard.
Data date only. The board for every name is in Chapter IV of the options page.
IV
Every case we filed on it
Each judgment is written down with its test before the fact, settled by that test, and left standing when wrong. These are all the cases that name SPY, none removed. Open one for the original filing.
15cases since 08.17
13settled
2open
10.01The near term is steady in the first half of OctoberOpen · est. 10.16
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
10.01 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
10 月上半月近处稳：10 月最明确的风险（10-28 议息再加息）概率已退到 24.9%，VIX 16.39；10 月 16 日前 VIX 收盘不上 25
Test: 10-16 前任一交易日 VIX 收盘 >25 ⇒ 收回；全程 ≤25 ⇒ 成立
10 月上半月近处稳：10 月最明确的风险（10-28 议息再加息）概率已退到 24.9%，VIX 16.39；10 月 16 日前 VIX 收盘不上 25
Test: 10-16 前任一交易日 VIX 收盘 >25 ⇒ 收回；全程 ≤25 ⇒ 成立
09.18Between the first and second hike the market chops rather than trendsOpen · est. 10.28
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.18 Filed (confidence: 中)
第一次到第二次加息之间（到 10-28）是颠簸不是趋势：过去 37 次加息里最像这次的 7 次，一个月内先颠、三个月后多半涨；Reuters 1994 年以来六轮首加 60 天后标普平均 −3.6%、12 个月后 +8.3%
Test: 10-28 前 SPY 收盘离 09-18 的 761.69 超过 ±5% 且单向（不回到 ±2% 以内）⇒ 是趋势，收回；否则成立
第一次到第二次加息之间（到 10-28）是颠簸不是趋势：过去 37 次加息里最像这次的 7 次，一个月内先颠、三个月后多半涨；Reuters 1994 年以来六轮首加 60 天后标普平均 −3.6%、12 个月后 +8.3%
Test: 10-28 前 SPY 收盘离 09-18 的 761.69 超过 ±5% 且单向（不回到 ±2% 以内）⇒ 是趋势，收回；否则成立
10.06The S&P 500 ETF Mar 19 2027 655P and 500P trades were new positionsHolds
Settlement
Holds
Holds
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
10.06 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
标普 500 ETF 2027-03-19 655P／500P 是新开：10-06 两档成交 101845／102832 张，原持仓 2455／8828 张，SPY 收 779.09
Test: 10-07 10:30 ET 后晨结算持仓中，655P 较 2455 增加至少 50923（10-06 成交 101845 的一半）⇒ 成立；否则收回
标普 500 ETF 2027-03-19 655P／500P 是新开：10-06 两档成交 101845／102832 张，原持仓 2455／8828 张，SPY 收 779.09
Test: 10-07 10:30 ET 后晨结算持仓中，655P 较 2455 增加至少 50923（10-06 成交 101845 的一半）⇒ 成立；否则收回
10.07 Settled
成立：判据为 10-07 晨读 655P 结算持仓较 2455 增加至少 50923（10-06 成交 101845 的一半）；10-07 晨读（即 10-06 结算）655P 持仓 103995，增 101540，是成交的 99.7%。另一档 500P 持仓 8828→106444，增 97616，是成交 102832 的 94.9%。照实记：两档成交量相近、几乎全数留成新仓，更像一笔新开的看跌价差，哪边买哪边卖仍分不出
Result: 成立
成立：判据为 10-07 晨读 655P 结算持仓较 2455 增加至少 50923（10-06 成交 101845 的一半）；10-07 晨读（即 10-06 结算）655P 持仓 103995，增 101540，是成交的 99.7%。另一档 500P 持仓 8828→106444，增 97616，是成交 102832 的 94.9%。照实记：两档成交量相近、几乎全数留成新仓，更像一笔新开的看跌价差，哪边买哪边卖仍分不出
Result: 成立
09.30The collective dive in big names in the last half hour of the quarter was mechanical quarter-end rebalancing, not trend sellingPartly, half withdrawn by its test
Settlement
Partly, half withdrawn by its test: the call held if the S&P 500 ETF closed back above 766.34 on October 1, was withdrawn if it closed below 762.63 on 20% more volume than Wednesday, and was half withdrawn in between. It closed at 763.99, above the Wednesday close but short of 766.34, where it stood before the last half hour of the quarter; volume was 0.77 times Wednesday, the last half hour traded 3.38 million shares against 13.16 million in the same slot on Wednesday, and the quarter-end wave of sell orders did not return. The equal-weight S&P rose 0.47% against 0.18% for the cap-weighted index, with 295 of 500 stocks up. The rebalancing reading was not overturned, but the index did not recover the whole quarter-end drop
Partly, half withdrawn by its test: the call held if the S&P 500 ETF closed back above 766.34 on October 1, was withdrawn if it closed below 762.63 on 20% more volume than Wednesday, and was half withdrawn in between. It closed at 763.99, above the Wednesday close but short of 766.34, where it stood before the last half hour of the quarter; volume was 0.77 times Wednesday, the last half hour traded 3.38 million shares against 13.16 million in the same slot on Wednesday, and the quarter-end wave of sell orders did not return. The equal-weight S&P rose 0.47% against 0.18% for the cap-weighted index, with 295 of 500 stocks up. The rebalancing reading was not overturned, but the index did not recover the whole quarter-end drop
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.30 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
季末最后半小时大票集体跳水是按季调仓的机械单，不是趋势性出货：标普 500 ETF 前六个小时都在 09-29 收盘 764.20 之上，15:30–16:00 从 766.34 跌到 762.63、成交为平时半小时约 14 倍；同半小时谷歌 −1.31、Meta −1.18、英伟达 −1.01、微软 −0.84、苹果 −0.78 按权重排，长债 +0.13、中期国债 +0.08（股卖债买）；英特尔 +0.38 反向；当天到期看跌（英伟达 230P、苹果 335P、谷歌 350P）放大跌幅
Test: 10-01 标普 500 ETF 收盘 ≥766.34（收复最后半小时）⇒ 成立；收盘 <762.63 且量比（对 09-30）>1.2 ⇒ 收回；其余 ⇒ 半收回，照实写
季末最后半小时大票集体跳水是按季调仓的机械单，不是趋势性出货：标普 500 ETF 前六个小时都在 09-29 收盘 764.20 之上，15:30–16:00 从 766.34 跌到 762.63、成交为平时半小时约 14 倍；同半小时谷歌 −1.31、Meta −1.18、英伟达 −1.01、微软 −0.84、苹果 −0.78 按权重排，长债 +0.13、中期国债 +0.08（股卖债买）；英特尔 +0.38 反向；当天到期看跌（英伟达 230P、苹果 335P、谷歌 350P）放大跌幅
Test: 10-01 标普 500 ETF 收盘 ≥766.34（收复最后半小时）⇒ 成立；收盘 <762.63 且量比（对 09-30）>1.2 ⇒ 收回；其余 ⇒ 半收回，照实写
10.01 Settled
部分，按判据半收回：判据是 10-01 标普 500 ETF 收盘回到 766.34 以上算成立，收在 762.63 以下且成交比周三多两成以上算收回，落在中间算半收回。周四收 763.99，收复了周三收盘，没回到季末那半小时之前的 766.34；全天成交是周三的 0.77 倍，最后半小时 338 万股回到平常（周三同一档 1316 万股），季末那种集中卖单没再出现。等权标普涨 0.47%，跑赢市值加权的 0.18%，500 只成分股 295 只上涨。调仓的读法没被推翻，但指数也没收复季末那半小时的全部跌幅
Result: 部分
部分，按判据半收回：判据是 10-01 标普 500 ETF 收盘回到 766.34 以上算成立，收在 762.63 以下且成交比周三多两成以上算收回，落在中间算半收回。周四收 763.99，收复了周三收盘，没回到季末那半小时之前的 766.34；全天成交是周三的 0.77 倍，最后半小时 338 万股回到平常（周三同一档 1316 万股），季末那种集中卖单没再出现。等权标普涨 0.47%，跑赢市值加权的 0.18%，500 只成分股 295 只上涨。调仓的读法没被推翻，但指数也没收复季末那半小时的全部跌幅
Result: 部分
09.21Fully loaded in single names, the money was buying the cheapest index protection.Withdrawn
Settlement
Withdrawn: of 105976 contracts only 28227 stayed, 27%.
Withdrawn: of 105976 contracts only 28227 stayed, 27%.
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.21 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
满仓个股的人在买最便宜的指数保护：SPY 10.16 729P 成交 57339 张对持仓 2137、734P 48637 对 3503，行权价在收盘下方 5% 到 6%；同日短打看跌占比 8.4%
Test: 09-23 晨结算 OI 留存 <50% ⇒ 当天进出，收回。最晚取数日 09-23
满仓个股的人在买最便宜的指数保护：SPY 10.16 729P 成交 57339 张对持仓 2137、734P 48637 对 3503，行权价在收盘下方 5% 到 6%；同日短打看跌占比 8.4%
Test: 09-23 晨结算 OI 留存 <50% ⇒ 当天进出，收回。最晚取数日 09-23
09.22 Settled
Result: 收回
Result: 收回
09.18Witching-day bets on a fall lostAlso: SPCX, TSLA, MSTR, SNDKundetermined
Settlement
undetermined
undetermined
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.18 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
三巫日押跌全输，决议后押跌的钱三天退了四分之三：09.18 到期平值 ±4% 档看跌 816837 张价内 32147（4%）、看涨 1430443 张价内 67%；SPCX 收 152.71 钉在 150P 87620 与 155C 32620 之间两边归零；09.25 到期 premium 看跌占比 54%（09-15）→31%（09-17）→14.6%（09-18），MSTR 六档看涨 $107M、SNDK 五档 $148M
Test: 09-21 结算 MSTR 09.25 六档 / SNDK 五档看涨留存 <50% ⇒ 三巫过路钱不是新钱，「股票期权把加息当过去式」收窄为「三巫日的对冲」。只认 行情尺 09-21 晨结算
三巫日押跌全输，决议后押跌的钱三天退了四分之三：09.18 到期平值 ±4% 档看跌 816837 张价内 32147（4%）、看涨 1430443 张价内 67%；SPCX 收 152.71 钉在 150P 87620 与 155C 32620 之间两边归零；09.25 到期 premium 看跌占比 54%（09-15）→31%（09-17）→14.6%（09-18），MSTR 六档看涨 $107M、SNDK 五档 $148M
Test: 09-21 结算 MSTR 09.25 六档 / SNDK 五档看涨留存 <50% ⇒ 三巫过路钱不是新钱，「股票期权把加息当过去式」收窄为「三巫日的对冲」。只认 行情尺 09-21 晨结算
09.23 Settled
Result: 无法判定（核心输入错过取数日）
Result: 无法判定（核心输入错过取数日）
09.17Confirmed and closed: stocks changed their mind first while bonds did not .Also: TLTconfirmed
Settlement
confirmed
confirmed
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.17 Settled
成立结清：股市先改口（09-16 SPY cm30 14.46 >14），债市未改口（MOVE 80.73 >76）；09-17 股市改口又退回（12.30），债市 TLT 看涨第三天放大
Result: 成立
成立结清：股市先改口（09-16 SPY cm30 14.46 >14），债市未改口（MOVE 80.73 >76）；09-17 股市改口又退回（12.30），债市 TLT 看涨第三天放大
Result: 成立
09.16Bonds are betting the peak is in on a two-week to one-month horizon while stocks started buying October insuranceAlso: TLT, IWMRight, it stands on its terms
Settlement
Right, it stands on its terms: the bond half (betting rates had peaked) would be withdrawn only if, before Sep 30, the long-Treasury fund closed below 80 and open interest in the Oct 16 83 call stopped rising, both at once. The fund closed at 77.78 on Sep 30, meeting the first; the 83 call open interest rose from 151602 on Sep 17 to 206070 at the Sep 29 settlement, so the second was not met. The bet is still there and so far it is losing: the 83 call closed at 9 cents; open interest in the 80 call went from 69172 to 135120, and on Sep 30 another 96813 Nov 30 83 calls traded against open interest of 3495, so holders are moving strikes down and dates out, not giving up
Right, it stands on its terms: the bond half (betting rates had peaked) would be withdrawn only if, before Sep 30, the long-Treasury fund closed below 80 and open interest in the Oct 16 83 call stopped rising, both at once. The fund closed at 77.78 on Sep 30, meeting the first; the 83 call open interest rose from 151602 on Sep 17 to 206070 at the Sep 29 settlement, so the second was not met. The bet is still there and so far it is losing: the 83 call closed at 9 cents; open interest in the 80 call went from 69172 to 135120, and on Sep 30 another 96813 Nov 30 83 calls traded against open interest of 3495, so holders are moving strikes down and dates out, not giving up
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.16 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
债市押利率见顶（两周到一个月），股市开始为十月买保险：TLT vol≥1000 档看涨 227716 对看跌 41599（10.16 83C 44054 / 82C 22325 / 80C 13308；09.30 82/83/84C 各约 1.7 万），TLT 收 80.88（+0.21）、cm30 12.00（−0.87）；IWM 10.16 270–273P 216111（全天 P 416560 / C 107315）；SPY 10.16 P 198039 / C 91599、09.30 P 105223 / C 58232；SPY cm30 14.46（09-15 13.91）
Test: ①09.18 前 SPY cm30 <14 ⇒ 股票买保险那半句是三巫对冲，收回；②09.30 前 TLT 收 <80 且 10.16 83C OI 不增 ⇒ 债市押见顶那半句收回。近月表只引 EOD 轮 vol≥1000 档；OI 明早 行情尺 取（83C 823584368 / 82C 823584251 / 80C 823584050）
债市押利率见顶（两周到一个月），股市开始为十月买保险：TLT vol≥1000 档看涨 227716 对看跌 41599（10.16 83C 44054 / 82C 22325 / 80C 13308；09.30 82/83/84C 各约 1.7 万），TLT 收 80.88（+0.21）、cm30 12.00（−0.87）；IWM 10.16 270–273P 216111（全天 P 416560 / C 107315）；SPY 10.16 P 198039 / C 91599、09.30 P 105223 / C 58232；SPY cm30 14.46（09-15 13.91）
Test: ①09.18 前 SPY cm30 <14 ⇒ 股票买保险那半句是三巫对冲，收回；②09.30 前 TLT 收 <80 且 10.16 83C OI 不增 ⇒ 债市押见顶那半句收回。近月表只引 EOD 轮 vol≥1000 档；OI 明早 行情尺 取（83C 823584368 / 82C 823584251 / 80C 823584050）
09.17 Settled
股市半句收回：SPY cm30 12.30 <14（比 09-11 的 12.45 还低），昨天那批是三巫前对冲；但 IWM 10.16 270–273P 09-17 晨 OI +52164（留 24%）、09-17 又成交 299053（P/C 3.89）并记。债市半句成立第一天：TLT 收 81.78，10.16 83C OI 125772→151602（+25830，留 59%）/ 82C +8592 / 80C +6733（合计留 52%），09-17 TLT 看涨 279207 张第三天放大，10.23 83C 新开 27512
Test: 债市半句照原条件（09.30 前 TLT <80 且 83C OI 不增 ⇒ 收回）
Result: 半收回
股市半句收回：SPY cm30 12.30 <14（比 09-11 的 12.45 还低），昨天那批是三巫前对冲；但 IWM 10.16 270–273P 09-17 晨 OI +52164（留 24%）、09-17 又成交 299053（P/C 3.89）并记。债市半句成立第一天：TLT 收 81.78，10.16 83C OI 125772→151602（+25830，留 59%）/ 82C +8592 / 80C +6733（合计留 52%），09-17 TLT 看涨 279207 张第三天放大，10.23 83C 新开 27512
Test: 债市半句照原条件（09.30 前 TLT <80 且 83C OI 不增 ⇒ 收回）
Result: 半收回
09.30 Settled
对，按判据成立：债市押利率见顶那半句的推翻条件是 09.30 前长债基金收在 80 以下、并且 10.16 约定价 83 的看涨持仓不再增加，两条要同时满足。长债基金 09.30 收 77.78，第一条碰了；83C 持仓从 09-17 的 151602 张增加到 09-29 结算的 206070 张，第二条没碰。押注还在，但押的方向到今天是亏的：83C 收在 0.09 美元；同批 80C 持仓 69172→135120，09-30 又有 11-30 到期 83C 成交 96813 张对持仓 3495，押注的人在往下挪价、往后挪时间，没有认输
Result: 对
对，按判据成立：债市押利率见顶那半句的推翻条件是 09.30 前长债基金收在 80 以下、并且 10.16 约定价 83 的看涨持仓不再增加，两条要同时满足。长债基金 09.30 收 77.78，第一条碰了；83C 持仓从 09-17 的 151602 张增加到 09-29 结算的 206070 张，第二条没碰。押注还在，但押的方向到今天是亏的：83C 收在 0.09 美元；同批 80C 持仓 69172→135120，09-30 又有 11-30 到期 83C 成交 96813 张对持仓 3495，押注的人在往下挪价、往后挪时间，没有认输
Result: 对
09.11What got cheaper today is protection for the meeting day, not for the road after the hikeAlso: QQQ, IWM, TLT, MOVEconfirmed
Settlement
confirmed
confirmed
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.11 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
今天便宜下来的是议息那一天的保护，加息之后那段路的保护没便宜：29 个标的三十天保护价钱无一上涨（SPY cm30 14.35→12.45 本表最大单日降幅、QQQ 20.12→17.39、TLT 12.59→10.91）、VIX9D 17.70→14.47、VIX1Y 22.23→21.75，同日 MOVE 82.09→82.21 一分没便宜。给股票做保护的人退了，给利率做保护的人没退
Test: ①09.16 后 MOVE 若跌回 76 以下 ⇒ 给利率做保护的人也退了，收回；②09.15 前 SPY cm30 若重回 14 以上 ⇒ 今日之便宜为到期日对冲消失（09-11 到期 6.69 亿），收回。MOVE 只引 每日MOVE.csv，cm30 只引 15:45 主枪
今天便宜下来的是议息那一天的保护，加息之后那段路的保护没便宜：29 个标的三十天保护价钱无一上涨（SPY cm30 14.35→12.45 本表最大单日降幅、QQQ 20.12→17.39、TLT 12.59→10.91）、VIX9D 17.70→14.47、VIX1Y 22.23→21.75，同日 MOVE 82.09→82.21 一分没便宜。给股票做保护的人退了，给利率做保护的人没退
Test: ①09.16 后 MOVE 若跌回 76 以下 ⇒ 给利率做保护的人也退了，收回；②09.15 前 SPY cm30 若重回 14 以上 ⇒ 今日之便宜为到期日对冲消失（09-11 到期 6.69 亿），收回。MOVE 只引 每日MOVE.csv，cm30 只引 15:45 主枪
09.15 Settled
② 未触发：SPY cm30 09-15 15:45 主枪 13.91 <14 ⇒ 09-11 的便宜不是到期日对冲消失；① 待 09.16 后 MOVE（09-15 83.71 / 34.9）
Test: ① 09.16 后 MOVE <76 ⇒ 收回
Result: 保留
② 未触发：SPY cm30 09-15 15:45 主枪 13.91 <14 ⇒ 09-11 的便宜不是到期日对冲消失；① 待 09.16 后 MOVE（09-15 83.71 / 34.9）
Test: ① 09.16 后 MOVE <76 ⇒ 收回
Result: 保留
09.17 Settled
成立结清：MOVE 09-16 80.73 >76，给利率做保护的人没退；SPY cm30 09-15 前未过 14，到期日对冲说不成立；09-17 SPY cm30 12.30 又低于 09-11 的 12.45
Result: 成立
成立结清：MOVE 09-16 80.73 >76，给利率做保护的人没退；SPY cm30 09-15 前未过 14，到期日对冲说不成立；09-17 SPY cm30 12.30 又低于 09-11 的 12.45
Result: 成立
09.10The sellers acted in the index and in long bonds on heavy volume and took no view on single namesAlso: SMH, TLT, IWM, INTC, MU, SNDK, AMDStands
Settlement
Stands
Stands
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.10 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
卖的人在指数与长债上放量动手，没在个股上表态：SMH 1.91x / TLT 1.49x / IWM 1.41x / SPY 1.29x 对 INTC 0.99x / MU 1.08x / SNDK 0.90x / AMD 0.72x；同日指数 cm30 +1.24/+1.10 而单票 cm30 全退
Test: 09.11 若存储链放量（成交量 >1.3 倍昨日）续跌，则个股层面开始交货，收回。量比只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15 的 volume/prev_volume；IV 只引 15:45 主枪
卖的人在指数与长债上放量动手，没在个股上表态：SMH 1.91x / TLT 1.49x / IWM 1.41x / SPY 1.29x 对 INTC 0.99x / MU 1.08x / SNDK 0.90x / AMD 0.72x；同日指数 cm30 +1.24/+1.10 而单票 cm30 全退
Test: 09.11 若存储链放量（成交量 >1.3 倍昨日）续跌，则个股层面开始交货，收回。量比只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15 的 volume/prev_volume；IV 只引 15:45 主枪
09.11 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
卖的人在指数与长债上放量动手，没在个股上表态——终审
Test: 09.11 若存储链放量（成交量 >1.3 倍昨日）续跌，则个股层面开始交货，收回。量比只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15
Result: 保留。SNDK −3.50 / 1.07x、MU −0.22 / 0.83x、INTC +2.61 / 0.90x，无一放量 >1.3x；缩量续跌＝无人问津，不是有人交货
卖的人在指数与长债上放量动手，没在个股上表态——终审
Test: 09.11 若存储链放量（成交量 >1.3 倍昨日）续跌，则个股层面开始交货，收回。量比只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15
Result: 保留。SNDK −3.50 / 1.07x、MU −0.22 / 0.83x、INTC +2.61 / 0.90x，无一放量 >1.3x；缩量续跌＝无人问津，不是有人交货
09.03Tomorrow's payrolls did not get marked upAlso: QQQ (21 names in all)Right, and rewritten per the criterion
Settlement
Right, and rewritten per the criterion: both ends are rising, the near end faster.
Right, and rewritten per the criterion: both ends are rising, the near end faster.
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.03 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
明天的非农没有被加价，被加价的是一年之后：五档期限里近端四档全线降价，唯独一年期从 21.24 抬到 21.43，是唯一涨价的一档
Test: 非农公布后三个交易日内看五档形状：若近端补涨回来而一年期回落，则「市场把风险记在远端」这个读法作废；若近端继续便宜、一年期继续抬，则加强。只引 leaps_gauge.json 的 term_ladder
明天的非农没有被加价，被加价的是一年之后：五档期限里近端四档全线降价，唯独一年期从 21.24 抬到 21.43，是唯一涨价的一档
Test: 非农公布后三个交易日内看五档形状：若近端补涨回来而一年期回落，则「市场把风险记在远端」这个读法作废；若近端继续便宜、一年期继续抬，则加强。只引 leaps_gauge.json 的 term_ladder
09.09 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
被加价的不是明天的非农，是一年之后——终审
Test: 非农公布后三个交易日内看五档形状：近端补涨而一年期回落则作废；一年期站 21.7 以上则保留并改写。只引 leaps_gauge.json 的 term_ladder
Result: 对（保留并按判据改写为「两头都抬」）。09.09 一年期 21.97 ≥ 21.7。五档自 09-04：九天 11.97→15.59、三十天 15.30→16.46、三月 17.61→18.87、六月 19.89→20.63、一年 21.49→21.97
被加价的不是明天的非农，是一年之后——终审
Test: 非农公布后三个交易日内看五档形状：近端补涨而一年期回落则作废；一年期站 21.7 以上则保留并改写。只引 leaps_gauge.json 的 term_ladder
Result: 对（保留并按判据改写为「两头都抬」）。09.09 一年期 21.97 ≥ 21.7。五档自 09-04：九天 11.97→15.59、三十天 15.30→16.46、三月 17.61→18.87、六月 19.89→20.63、一年 21.49→21.97
08.1908-19 was not a risk-off day: the four hardest-hit names all traded lighter than usual , so the decline came from absent buyers rather than selling pr…Also: QQQ, MSTR, COIN, AVGO, INTC, AMD, NVDARight — neither falsifying condition triggered
Settlement
Right — neither falsifying condition triggered. First: "if 08-20 brings a comparable decline on 1.5x or more volume, the no-sellers half fails." On 08-20 the four hardest-hit names printed AVGO +0.43%, RDDT -0.92%, INTC -0.72% and AMD +0.65% — none came close to the 3.71% to 4.61% declines of 08-19, so the premise never appeared and that half stands. Second: "if the high-beta group gives it all back, the long-end-and-weak-dollar half fails." MSTR rose 7.81%, COIN 7.58%, CVNA 1.53% and MARA 15.54%, while HOOD slipped 0.70% — four of five kept rising, which is not a full give-back, so that half stands as well.
Right — neither falsifying condition triggered. First: "if 08-20 brings a comparable decline on 1.5x or more volume, the no-sellers half fails." On 08-20 the four hardest-hit names printed AVGO +0.43%, RDDT -0.92%, INTC -0.72% and AMD +0.65% — none came close to the 3.71% to 4.61% declines of 08-19, so the premise never appeared and that half stands. Second: "if the high-beta group gives it all back, the long-end-and-weak-dollar half fails." MSTR rose 7.81%, COIN 7.58%, CVNA 1.53% and MARA 15.54%, while HOOD slipped 0.70% — four of five kept rising, which is not a full give-back, so that half stands as well.
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
08.19 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
08-19 不是避险日：跌得最狠的四只全部缩量（0.68~0.94倍），下跌来自买盘缺席而非卖压；当天真正的定价事件是财政部扩大长债回购，不是 FOMC 纪要
Test: 次日两条各自可推翻：①若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能，则「没人卖」这半不成立；②若高贝塔（MSTR/COIN/CVNA/MARA/HOOD）次日全数回吐，则「长端下行与美元走弱驱动」这半不成立。只引 每日跳空.csv 的 chg_pct 与本线量能倍数（当日量÷前20日均量）
08-19 不是避险日：跌得最狠的四只全部缩量（0.68~0.94倍），下跌来自买盘缺席而非卖压；当天真正的定价事件是财政部扩大长债回购，不是 FOMC 纪要
Test: 次日两条各自可推翻：①若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能，则「没人卖」这半不成立；②若高贝塔（MSTR/COIN/CVNA/MARA/HOOD）次日全数回吐，则「长端下行与美元走弱驱动」这半不成立。只引 每日跳空.csv 的 chg_pct 与本线量能倍数（当日量÷前20日均量）
08.26 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
08-19 不是避险日：跌得最狠的四只全部缩量（0.68~0.94倍），下跌来自买盘缺席而非卖压；当天真正的定价事件是财政部扩大长债回购，不是 FOMC 纪要——终审
Test: 次日两条各自可推翻：①若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能，则「没人卖」这半不成立；②若高贝塔（MSTR/COIN/CVNA/MARA/HOOD）次日全数回吐，则「长端下行与美元走弱驱动」这半不成立。只引 每日跳空.csv 的 chg_pct 与本线量能倍数（当日量÷前20日均量）
Result: 对(两条推翻条件均未触发)。①「若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能则『没人卖』半不成立」——08-19 跌最狠四只在 08-20 的表现为 AVGO +0.43%、RDDT -0.92%、INTC -0.72%、AMD +0.65%，无一只出现同等跌幅(08-19 为 -3.71~-4.61%)，前提未出现 ⇒ 该半未被推翻。②「若高贝塔全数回吐则『长端下行与美元走弱驱动』半不成立」——MSTR +7.81%、COIN +7.58%、CVNA +1.53%、MARA +15.54%、HOOD -0.70%，五只中四只继续上涨、仅 HOOD 微跌 ⇒ 非「全数回吐」，该半亦未被推翻。
08-19 不是避险日：跌得最狠的四只全部缩量（0.68~0.94倍），下跌来自买盘缺席而非卖压；当天真正的定价事件是财政部扩大长债回购，不是 FOMC 纪要——终审
Test: 次日两条各自可推翻：①若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能，则「没人卖」这半不成立；②若高贝塔（MSTR/COIN/CVNA/MARA/HOOD）次日全数回吐，则「长端下行与美元走弱驱动」这半不成立。只引 每日跳空.csv 的 chg_pct 与本线量能倍数（当日量÷前20日均量）
Result: 对(两条推翻条件均未触发)。①「若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能则『没人卖』半不成立」——08-19 跌最狠四只在 08-20 的表现为 AVGO +0.43%、RDDT -0.92%、INTC -0.72%、AMD +0.65%，无一只出现同等跌幅(08-19 为 -3.71~-4.61%)，前提未出现 ⇒ 该半未被推翻。②「若高贝塔全数回吐则『长端下行与美元走弱驱动』半不成立」——MSTR +7.81%、COIN +7.58%、CVNA +1.53%、MARA +15.54%、HOOD -0.70%，五只中四只继续上涨、仅 HOOD 微跌 ⇒ 非「全数回吐」，该半亦未被推翻。
08.19The two index put blocks expiring 09-11 are not a bet on a crash but the two legs of a vertical spreadAlso: QQQNot determinable — the data for the core leg is permanently …
Settlement
Not determinable — the data for the core leg is permanently missing. The test called for next-day open interest on both legs. The near-the-money leg checks out: QQQ 2026-09-11 705P open interest rose from 1,372 to 33,721 on 08-20, a gain of 32,349 that closely matches the 33,448 contracts traded on 08-19, confirming new positioning rather than churn. But the lower strike, QQQ 680P, was not captured by the unusual-activity scan on 08-20 and has no row that day — only 16 rows exist for that expiry, none at 680P — and neither SPY leg, 760P or 740P, has an 08-20 row either. The central question, whether both strikes gained comparable open interest together, therefore has no data behind it.
Not determinable — the data for the core leg is permanently missing. The test called for next-day open interest on both legs. The near-the-money leg checks out: QQQ 2026-09-11 705P open interest rose from 1,372 to 33,721 on 08-20, a gain of 32,349 that closely matches the 33,448 contracts traded on 08-19, confirming new positioning rather than churn. But the lower strike, QQQ 680P, was not captured by the unusual-activity scan on 08-20 and has no row that day — only 16 rows exist for that expiry, none at 680P — and neither SPY leg, 760P or 740P, has an 08-20 row either. The central question, whether both strikes gained comparable open interest together, therefore has no data behind it.
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
08.19 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
9月11日到期的两组指数看跌不是赌崩盘，是垂直价差的两条腿：买贴价档、卖更低档，赔付被封在两个行权价之间
Test: 次日看两条腿的持仓量：若两档持仓同步上升相近数量则价差成立；若只有贴价档持仓上升、更低档未动，则两档只是成交量碰巧接近，本判断不成立并当期回来认。只引 每日UOA近月异常.csv 的 oi 列
9月11日到期的两组指数看跌不是赌崩盘，是垂直价差的两条腿：买贴价档、卖更低档，赔付被封在两个行权价之间
Test: 次日看两条腿的持仓量：若两档持仓同步上升相近数量则价差成立；若只有贴价档持仓上升、更低档未动，则两档只是成交量碰巧接近，本判断不成立并当期回来认。只引 每日UOA近月异常.csv 的 oi 列
08.26 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
9月11日到期的两组指数看跌不是赌崩盘，是垂直价差的两条腿：买贴价档、卖更低档，赔付被封在两个行权价之间——终审
Test: 次日看两条腿的持仓量：若两档持仓同步上升相近数量则价差成立；若只有贴价档持仓上升、更低档未动，则两档只是成交量碰巧接近，本判断不成立并当期回来认。只引 每日UOA近月异常.csv 的 oi 列
Result: 无法判定(核心腿数据永久缺失)。判据要求「次日看两条腿的持仓量」：贴价档 QQQ 2026-09-11 705P 次日(08-20)OI 由 1,372 升至 33,721(+32,349，约等于 08-19 当日成交量 33,448)⇒ 贴价档确为新建仓而非换手，这半可证；但更低档 QQQ 680P 在 08-20 未被 UOA 扫中、当日无行(08-20 该到期仅 16 行，无 680P)，SPY 两条腿(760P/740P)同样无 08-20 行 ⇒ 「两档持仓是否同步上升相近数量」这个**核心问题**无数据可答。
9月11日到期的两组指数看跌不是赌崩盘，是垂直价差的两条腿：买贴价档、卖更低档，赔付被封在两个行权价之间——终审
Test: 次日看两条腿的持仓量：若两档持仓同步上升相近数量则价差成立；若只有贴价档持仓上升、更低档未动，则两档只是成交量碰巧接近，本判断不成立并当期回来认。只引 每日UOA近月异常.csv 的 oi 列
Result: 无法判定(核心腿数据永久缺失)。判据要求「次日看两条腿的持仓量」：贴价档 QQQ 2026-09-11 705P 次日(08-20)OI 由 1,372 升至 33,721(+32,349，约等于 08-19 当日成交量 33,448)⇒ 贴价档确为新建仓而非换手，这半可证；但更低档 QQQ 680P 在 08-20 未被 UOA 扫中、当日无行(08-20 该到期仅 16 行，无 680P)，SPY 两条腿(760P/740P)同样无 08-20 行 ⇒ 「两档持仓是否同步上升相近数量」这个**核心问题**无数据可答。
08.17What the fence actually prices is not whether something happens but which side it happens onAlso: QQQRight
Settlement
Right. Across the next three sessions (08-18, 08-19, 08-20), computing (high minus anchor)/EM and (anchor minus low)/EM exactly as the filing specified: SPY upside -0.58, +0.93, -0.22 against downside +1.05, -0.12, +1.71, averaging +0.042 up versus +0.880 down; QQQ upside -0.92, +0.49, -0.17 against downside +1.66, +0.60, +1.16, averaging -0.203 up versus +1.137 down. Both names consumed more of the downside half on average, so the test — downside consumption persistently exceeding upside — holds.
Right. Across the next three sessions (08-18, 08-19, 08-20), computing (high minus anchor)/EM and (anchor minus low)/EM exactly as the filing specified: SPY upside -0.58, +0.93, -0.22 against downside +1.05, -0.12, +1.71, averaging +0.042 up versus +0.880 down; QQQ upside -0.92, +0.49, -0.17 against downside +1.66, +0.60, +1.16, averaging -0.203 up versus +1.137 down. Both names consumed more of the downside half on average, so the test — downside consumption persistently exceeding upside — holds.
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
08.17 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
围栏真正被定价的不是会不会有事，而是往哪边有事：无宏观题目的日子，钱仍偏在下沿一侧
Test: 后续三场围栏统计高低两半的使用比例：向下那半平均用量持续高于向上则成立；反转则不成立。口径＝(高−锚)/EM 与 (锚−低)/EM
围栏真正被定价的不是会不会有事，而是往哪边有事：无宏观题目的日子，钱仍偏在下沿一侧
Test: 后续三场围栏统计高低两半的使用比例：向下那半平均用量持续高于向上则成立；反转则不成立。口径＝(高−锚)/EM 与 (锚−低)/EM
08.26 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
围栏真正被定价的不是会不会有事，而是往哪边有事：无宏观题目的日子，钱仍偏在下沿一侧——终审
Test: 后续三场围栏统计高低两半的使用比例：向下那半平均用量持续高于向上则成立；反转则不成立。口径＝(高−锚)/EM 与 (锚−低)/EM
Result: 对。后续三场(08-18/19/20)按立案口径逐场算 (高−锚)/EM 与 (锚−低)/EM：SPY 上 -0.58/+0.93/-0.22、下 +1.05/-0.12/+1.71 ⇒ 三场均值 上+0.042 vs 下+0.880；QQQ 上 -0.92/+0.49/-0.17、下 +1.66/+0.60/+1.16 ⇒ 均值 上-0.203 vs 下+1.137。两只票的下半平均用量均高于上半，判据「向下那半平均用量持续高于向上」成立。
围栏真正被定价的不是会不会有事，而是往哪边有事：无宏观题目的日子，钱仍偏在下沿一侧——终审
Test: 后续三场围栏统计高低两半的使用比例：向下那半平均用量持续高于向上则成立；反转则不成立。口径＝(高−锚)/EM 与 (锚−低)/EM
Result: 对。后续三场(08-18/19/20)按立案口径逐场算 (高−锚)/EM 与 (锚−低)/EM：SPY 上 -0.58/+0.93/-0.22、下 +1.05/-0.12/+1.71 ⇒ 三场均值 上+0.042 vs 下+0.880；QQQ 上 -0.92/+0.49/-0.17、下 +1.66/+0.60/+1.16 ⇒ 均值 上-0.203 vs 下+1.137。两只票的下半平均用量均高于上半，判据「向下那半平均用量持续高于向上」成立。
08.17In the same-day-expiry layer, the overwhelming majority of volume has nothing to do with directionAlso: QQQ, MU, META, NVDA (13 names in all)Not determinable
Settlement
Not determinable. The filing hard-coded its test as "only rows in the daily contract observation log whose source is the quote-screen OCR feed," and that source recorded nothing from 2026-08-18 through the settlement date — a direct check of 08-18 to 08-26 returns zero rows. The input the test required was never produced, so this case physically cannot be settled.
Not determinable. The filing hard-coded its test as "only rows in the daily contract observation log whose source is the quote-screen OCR feed," and that source recorded nothing from 2026-08-18 through the settlement date — a direct check of 08-18 to 08-26 returns zero rows. The input the test required was never produced, so this case physically cannot be settled.
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
08.17 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
当日到期这一层，绝大部分成交量与方向无关：13 只里 11 只最热档是看跌，12 只行权价贴在收盘价 ±1% 内
Test: 后续三个到期日统计：最热档若系统性偏离现价（|行权价−收盘|/收盘 > 1% 的票占多数），则本判断不成立，08-17 记为单日形状；仍贴现价则加强。只引 每日合约观察日志.csv 里 source=行情尺截图OCR 的行
当日到期这一层，绝大部分成交量与方向无关：13 只里 11 只最热档是看跌，12 只行权价贴在收盘价 ±1% 内
Test: 后续三个到期日统计：最热档若系统性偏离现价（|行权价−收盘|/收盘 > 1% 的票占多数），则本判断不成立，08-17 记为单日形状；仍贴现价则加强。只引 每日合约观察日志.csv 里 source=行情尺截图OCR 的行
08.26 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
当日到期这一层，绝大部分成交量与方向无关：13 只里 11 只最热档是看跌，12 只行权价贴在收盘价 ±1% 内——终审
Test: 后续三个到期日统计：最热档若系统性偏离现价（|行权价−收盘|/收盘 > 1% 的票占多数），则本判断不成立，08-17 记为单日形状；仍贴现价则加强。只引 每日合约观察日志.csv 里 source=行情尺截图OCR 的行
Result: 无法判定。立案时把判据写死为「只引 每日合约观察日志.csv 里 source=行情尺截图OCR 的行」，而该来源自 2026-08-18 起至开奖日一行未入库(实查 08-18~08-26 共 0 行)⇒ 判据所需的输入从未产生，本判断在物理上无法执行开奖。
当日到期这一层，绝大部分成交量与方向无关：13 只里 11 只最热档是看跌，12 只行权价贴在收盘价 ±1% 内——终审
Test: 后续三个到期日统计：最热档若系统性偏离现价（|行权价−收盘|/收盘 > 1% 的票占多数），则本判断不成立，08-17 记为单日形状；仍贴现价则加强。只引 每日合约观察日志.csv 里 source=行情尺截图OCR 的行
Result: 无法判定。立案时把判据写死为「只引 每日合约观察日志.csv 里 source=行情尺截图OCR 的行」，而该来源自 2026-08-18 起至开奖日一行未入库(实查 08-18~08-26 共 0 行)⇒ 判据所需的输入从未产生，本判断在物理上无法执行开奖。
Cases for every name are in Chapter III of the options page. The ledger is append-only; a revision is a new row.
V
Other names
Decades of SPY price history and drawdowns are in The Archive · S&P 500.
QQQ
IWM
TLT
SMH
XLF
XLK
XLV
AAPL
AMZN
GOOG
GOOGL
META
MSFT
NVDA
TSLA
SPCX
AVGO
TSM
AMD
INTC
MU
SNDK
MRVL
QCOM
SKHY
SMCI
DELL
ORCL
PLTR
CRWV
NBIS
COIN
HOOD
MSTR
SOFI
JPM
BAC
C
WFC
GS
KRE
V
MA
AXP
MS
SCHW
BLK
BRK.B
CRCL
WMT
COST
HD
TJX
MCD
KO
RACE
MC.PA
RMS.PA
How to read this page
· The one-year percentile and the 30-day and one-year implied vols come from two different sources; each is compared only with its own past, and the two are never spliced together.
· The 30-day and one-year vols are constant-maturity: interpolated between the two nearest expiries to exactly 30 and 365 days, read once before each close.
· A big-print row is one contract's full-day total, not a single trade. Without per-trade timestamps or aggressor side we state premium traded only.
· Every reading is cross-checked against two independent sources and updated once after the close. Raw data is not provided on this site.
· Data and information only; not investment advice; no buy or sell recommendations.
· The one-year percentile and the 30-day and one-year implied vols come from two different sources; each is compared only with its own past, and the two are never spliced together.
· The 30-day and one-year vols are constant-maturity: interpolated between the two nearest expiries to exactly 30 and 365 days, read once before each close.
· A big-print row is one contract's full-day total, not a single trade. Without per-trade timestamps or aggressor side we state premium traded only.
· Every reading is cross-checked against two independent sources and updated once after the close. Raw data is not provided on this site.
· Data and information only; not investment advice; no buy or sell recommendations.
Today's read on this name is in the subscriber email; past issues go public the next day.