Options / Tickers / QCOM
Qualcomm (QCOM)
Is protection on Qualcomm cheap or dear today, where has the money been placed, how did the past month play out, and how did the judgments we filed on Qualcomm settle? Updated after every close, with right and wrong judgments alike left on the record.
Data date 10.07 · close 179.66 (—) · −30.62% from the 52-week high
Where it stands today
Where one-month protection (30-day implied volatility) sits within its past-year range, 0 the cheapest and 100 the dearest. Protection on Qualcomm is now in the pricier part of the past year.
The 30-day sits 2.37 points above the one-year: something near-term is being priced on its own.
Centred on the previous close of 181.03, option prices imply 175.72 to 186.34 at this week's expiry. A close outside it at expiry means the option sellers lose.
Calls outtraded puts. It counts contracts, not direction: a put buyer may be insuring shares they own.
Levels from high to low, with distance from the close:
| Call wall | 200 | +11.32% | The strike with the most call open interest: an upside target someone has already made a down payment on. |
| Expected move, high | 186.34 | +3.72% | Centred on the previous close: the implied top at this week's expiry. |
| Put wall | 180 | +0.19% | The strike with the most put open interest: protection someone already paid for. |
| Close | 179.66 | ||
| Flip level | 178.49 | −0.65% | Above it, dealer hedging damps moves; below it, hedging amplifies them. |
| Expected move, low | 175.72 | −2.19% | Centred on the previous close: the implied bottom at this week's expiry. |
Data date 10.07. Updated once after each trading day's close; spot is the official close.
The last 30 trading days
Close, flip level, put wall and call wall, day by day: which side of the walls price is on, and whether the walls moved.
One-year and 30-day implied vol, day by day. The short line jumping while the long line holds means only the near-term event is being repriced; the long line rising too means the whole story is.
Shown: the last 30 trading days. Earlier records are in Chapter V (walls) and Chapter VII (implied vol) of the options page.
Today's big prints
No Qualcomm contract made today's leaderboard.
Data date only. The board for every name is in Chapter IV of the options page.
Every case we filed on it
Each judgment is written down with its test before the fact, settled by that test, and left standing when wrong. These are all the cases that name Qualcomm, none removed. Open one for the original filing.
09.22The CPU story was accepted on day twoAlso: AMD, INTCconfirmed
confirmed
昨天那条 Agent 把 CPU 重新定价的故事，第二天被接受了：追的人不再为它多买保护。AMD 涨 1.34% 而 cm30 −2.15，高通涨 2.08% 而 −1.42；英特尔是例外，cm30 +0.68 到 72.86 仍是全表最贵
Test: 09-25 前 AMD 与高通股价续涨而 cm30 双双回到 09-21 的 54.45 与 52.74 之上 ⇒ 追的人又开始买保护，收回
成立结清：收回要 AMD 与高通股价续涨且 cm30 双双回到 09-21 的 54.45 / 52.74 之上。股价续涨了（AMD 623.77→630.63、高通 198.27→201.97），cm30 却一直在线下：AMD 52.30 / 51.56 / 50.56，高通 51.32 / 50.76 / 49.33 / 49.67（09-22 / 09-23 / 09-24 / 09-25；AMD 09-23 为 50.95）。故事被接受后，追的人没再回头买保护
Result: 成立
09.21A stock rising with its insurance is the chasers attaching protection, not a short squeeze.Also: INTC, META, MSTR, AMDconfirmed
confirmed
股价涨保险跟着涨，是追的人自己在买保护，不是空头回补。INTC cm30 +9.49 / META +7.05 / QCOM +6.36 / MSTR +6.25 / AMD +5.63，同日 SPY cm30 12.22 不动
Test: 09.25 前这五只里三只以上股价续涨而 cm30 回落到 09-18 水平以下（62.69/37.64/46.38/67.70/48.82）⇒ 是空头回补，收回。cm30 只引 15:45 主枪
成立结清：收回要三只以上「股价续涨且 cm30 回落到 09-18 以下」，一只都没有。股价对 09-21 收盘：INTC 121.78→123.00、META 741.25→751.66、QCOM 194.23→201.97、AMD 615.52→630.63 续涨，MSTR 168.50→158.61 回落；cm30（15:45 主枪）09-25 对 09-18 基准：INTC 72.88/62.69、META 41.30/37.64、QCOM 49.67/46.38、AMD 50.56/48.82，全部仍在基准之上（MSTR 64.17/67.70 回落但股价没涨）。追的人买的保护一周后退了一部分（四只都比 09-21 峰值低），没有退回原位
Result: 成立
09.14The letter changed the overnight price and did not change the session's positionsAlso: SMH, MU, SNDK, AMD, INTC, NVDA, AVGO, ARMholds
holds
AI 放缓那封信改变的是夜里的价，没有改变白天的仓位：SMH 跳空 −5.02 白天 +0.28（2.01x）；MU −7.10/+1.99、SNDK −6.85/+2.00、AMD −5.78/+1.47、INTC −6.92/+1.43、QCOM −6.15/+5.49 白天全被买回；NVDA −3.23/−0.13、AVGO −3.41/−1.40、ARM −8.46/−1.39 没人接。白天被买回的名单与 FT 09-11 报道 Situational Awareness 用深度价外看涨重建仓位的名单（AMD/INTC/SKHY/SNDK/CRWV）重合
Test: 09.15 SMH 开盘跳空超过 −2% 且白天不再买回 ⇒ 今日的买回是空头回补，收回。只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15
保留：SMH 09-15 跳空 +0.94 白天 −0.82 收 +0.11，成交量 0.57x，缩量回落＝无人问津不是交货；MU +1.46/−1.06、SNDK +1.14/−2.47、INTC +1.69/−1.71、NVDA +1.14/−0.56、AVGO +0.38/−1.96；QCOM +0.21/+4.02 例外
Test: 收回条件（gap ≤−2% 且白天不买回）未触发
Result: 保留
Cases for every name are in Chapter III of the options page. The ledger is append-only; a revision is a new row.
Other names
SPY
QQQ
IWM
TLT
SMH
XLF
XLK
XLV
AAPL
AMZN
GOOG
GOOGL
META
MSFT
NVDA
TSLA
SPCX
AVGO
TSM
AMD
INTC
MU
SNDK
MRVL
SKHY
SMCI
DELL
ORCL
PLTR
CRWV
NBIS
COIN
HOOD
MSTR
SOFI
JPM
BAC
C
WFC
GS
KRE
V
MA
AXP
MS
SCHW
BLK
BRK.B
CRCL
WMT
COST
HD
TJX
MCD
KO
RACE
MC.PA
RMS.PA· The one-year percentile and the 30-day and one-year implied vols come from two different sources; each is compared only with its own past, and the two are never spliced together.
· The 30-day and one-year vols are constant-maturity: interpolated between the two nearest expiries to exactly 30 and 365 days, read once before each close.
· A big-print row is one contract's full-day total, not a single trade. Without per-trade timestamps or aggressor side we state premium traded only.
· Every reading is cross-checked against two independent sources and updated once after the close. Raw data is not provided on this site.
· Data and information only; not investment advice; no buy or sell recommendations.
Today's read on this name is in the subscriber email; past issues go public the next day.