Wells Fargo & Co (WFC)

Is protection on Wells Fargo & Co cheap or dear today, how did the past month play out, and how did the judgments we filed on Wells Fargo & Co settle? Updated after every close, with right and wrong judgments alike left on the record.

Data date 10.07

Where it stands today

30-day / one-year implied vol (%)32.17 / 28.96

The 30-day sits 3.21 points above the one-year: something near-term is being priced on its own.

Data date 10.07. Implied vols are read once before each close.

The last 30 trading days

One-year and 30-day implied vol, day by day. The short line jumping while the long line holds means only the near-term event is being repriced; the long line rising too means the whole story is.

Shown: the last 30 trading days. Earlier records are in Chapter VII of the options page.

III

Every case we filed on it

Each judgment is written down with its test before the fact, settled by that test, and left standing when wrong. These are all the cases that name Wells Fargo & Co, none removed. Open one for the original filing.

4cases since 09.14

4settled

0open

09.18Stocks price the hike as an event and bonds as three or four moreAlso: GS, XLF, JPM, BAC, CWithdrawn

Settlement
Withdrawn: Goldman one-year implied vol fell from 36.15 to 33.52, through the 34.14 line; the other layers got dearer while bank insurance stayed flat.

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

09.18 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
股票把加息定价成一次事件，债市按三四次算，中间那道缝落在银行：2y 4.7433% 一周 +11.79bp、掉期 10 月 15bp / 12 月累计 35bp / 明年中峰值约 4.7%；GS cm365 一周 +4.51 全表第一、收 942 跌破 200 日线 948.67、一周 −8.47%；XLF 三档两年期看跌 72222 张留 99%；09-18 又有人买 XLF 12.18 57–59C 35766 张
Test: 09.30 前 GS cm365 回落到 09-11 的 34.14 以下，或 XLF 收回 57 ⇒ 银行只是决议日的一次性重定价，收回。cm365 只引 15:45 主枪

09.23 Settled

Result: 收回

09.17Short bank insurance was gone while long insurance was boughtAlso: XLF, GS, JPM, BAC, C, KREconfirmed

Settlement
confirmed

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

09.17 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
银行短的保险退了，长的有人买：五家 cm30 全退回 09.15 以下（GS −3.58 / KRE −3.28 / C −3.01 / JPM −2.03 / BAC −1.66 / WFC −1.40）；XLF 近月 P 66120 / C 9481（6.97x）；长天期 2027-01 50P 25214（OI 65721）/ 2027-12 50P 25008（OI 7972）/ 2028-12 45P 22000（OI 13603），行权价低 10.5%–19.5%，三档各两万多张像一个买家铺梯子；股价 XLF −0.09 / KRE 0.00 在全市场 +1.13% 的日子没跟
Test: 09-18 晨行情尺核三档 OI 未增 ⇒ 当天进出，收回；09.24 前 XLF 收回 57 上方 ⇒ 股价半句收回。🔴 OI 最晚取数日 09-18

09.24 Settled
成立结清：股价半句未触发收回，XLF 09-17 起收盘 55.88 / 55.86 / 55.90 / 54.80 / 54.54 / 54.53，最高 55.93（09-16）以下，从没回到 57；长的半句 09-18 晨已成立（三档 OI 65721→90528 / 7972→32972 / 13603→35103，留 99%）。全案成立：银行短的保险退了、长的有人买，金融板块股价也没跟上
Result: 成立

09.16On hike day the repricing hit banks, and the reason is the curveAlso: GS, BAC, C, JPM, KREconfirmed

Settlement
confirmed

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

09.16 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
加息日被重新定价的是银行，理由在曲线：GS −3.96 / WFC −2.98 / BAC −2.72 / C −2.36 / KRE −1.77 / JPM −1.01；两年期 4.738% 高点（2024-07 以来最高）、十年期 4.994、三十年 5.338、2s10s 27.5bp 6/30 以来最平；Δcm30 GS +2.56 / KRE +1.89 / BAC +1.56 / C +1.16 / JPM +1.03 / WFC +0.98 第三天全涨。银行股价跌、保费涨＝有人在卖；半导体股价涨、保费也涨＝边买边保
Test: 09.18 前银行五只 cm30 回落到 09-15 水平以下（GS <36.33 / BAC <26.35 / C <32.76 / JPM <26.13 / WFC <29.75）⇒ 只是决议日一天行情，收回。只引 15:45 主枪

09.17 Settled
保费半句收回：15:45 主枪 cm30 GS 35.31 / BAC 26.25 / C 30.91 / JPM 25.13 / WFC 29.33，五只全回落到 09-15 以下，三天的加价是决议日对冲。股价半句保留：全市场 +1.13% 而 XLF −0.09 / KRE 0.00 / JPM +0.11 / C −0.18 / WFC −0.18（GS +1.43）
Test: 股价半句 09-18 再看一天
Result: 半收回

09.18 Settled
股价半句成立结清：五家一周 GS −8.47 / BAC −7.91 / C −5.08 / WFC −4.62 / JPM −1.84，GS 09-18 收 942.00 跌破 200 日线 948.67（前复权）；保费半句 09-17 已收回
Result: 成立

09.14Protection sellers treated the bank guidance as new information and did not treat the letter as new informationAlso: GS, JPM, BAC, C, MU, SNDK, INTC, AMD, AVGO, NVDA, TSMconfirmed

Settlement
confirmed

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

09.14 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
卖保护的人把银行的指引当成了新信息，没把那封信当成新信息：cm30 单日变化 GS +3.51 / WFC +2.99 / JPM +2.74 / BAC +2.39 / C +2.19 对 MU −0.04 / AMD +0.58 / AVGO +1.02 / NVDA +1.87 / TSM +2.01；cm365 MU 61.81→59.71（−2.10）、SNDK −1.61、INTC −1.01。起因＝美国银行 CEO 巴克莱会议：三季度交易收入持平、投行费用降一成
Test: 09.16 决议后 MU cm30 抬过 62 而股价不反弹 ⇒ 保护市场补定价了那封信，收回。只引每日恒定期限IV.csv 15:45 主枪

09.17 Settled
成立结清：MU cm30 09-17 57.86 <62（09-16 58.43）；银行三天涨的保费 09-17 一天退光，改价方向对了、持久性没有
Result: 成立

Cases for every name are in Chapter III of the options page. The ledger is append-only; a revision is a new row.