Options / Tickers / TLT
TICKER PAGE · TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
Is protection on TLT cheap or dear today, where has the money been placed, how did the past month play out, and how did the judgments we filed on TLT settle? Updated after every close, with right and wrong judgments alike left on the record.
Data date 10.07 · close 76.73 (—) · −13.29% from the 52-week high
I
Where it stands today
One-year IV percentile96 / 100
Where one-month protection (30-day implied volatility) sits within its past-year range, 0 the cheapest and 100 the dearest. Protection on TLT is now in the most expensive stretch of the past year.
30-day / one-year implied vol (%)15.24 / 14.6
The two are about level: nothing near-term is being priced on its own.
Expected move this week±0.9% ±0.69
Centred on the previous close of 77.28, option prices imply 76.59 to 77.97 at this week's expiry. A close outside it at expiry means the option sellers lose.
Put ÷ call (volume / open interest)0.56 / 0.48
Calls outtraded puts. It counts contracts, not direction: a put buyer may be insuring shares they own.
Levels from high to low, with distance from the close:
| Call wall | 80 | +4.26% | The strike with the most call open interest: an upside target someone has already made a down payment on. |
| Expected move, high | 77.97 | +1.61% | Centred on the previous close: the implied top at this week's expiry. |
| Flip level | 77.59 | +1.12% | Above it, dealer hedging damps moves; below it, hedging amplifies them. |
| Put wall | 77 | +0.35% | The strike with the most put open interest: protection someone already paid for. |
| Close | 76.73 | ||
| Expected move, low | 76.59 | −0.18% | Centred on the previous close: the implied bottom at this week's expiry. |
Data date 10.07. Updated once after each trading day's close; spot is the official close.
II
The last 30 trading days
Close, flip level, put wall and call wall, day by day: which side of the walls price is on, and whether the walls moved.
One-year and 30-day implied vol, day by day. The short line jumping while the long line holds means only the near-term event is being repriced; the long line rising too means the whole story is.
Shown: the last 30 trading days. Earlier records are in Chapter V (walls) and Chapter VII (implied vol) of the options page.
III
Today's big prints
No TLT contract made today's leaderboard.
Data date only. The board for every name is in Chapter IV of the options page.
IV
Every case we filed on it
Each judgment is written down with its test before the fact, settled by that test, and left standing when wrong. These are all the cases that name TLT, none removed. Open one for the original filing.
15cases since 08.31
13settled
2open
10.02The bad news is priced: September payrolls rose only 29000, yet the official 2-year rose from 4.78% to 4.83%, after falling 10 basis points on Thursda…Open · est. 10.09
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
10.02 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
坏消息已经进了价：9 月非农只增 2.9 万，财政部官方两年期反而从 4.78% 升到 4.83%，周四已因两位美联储官员说不急一天降了 10 个基点；10 月 9 日（周五）前两年期收不回 4.92%
Test: 10-09 前财政部官方两年期任一收盘 ≥4.92% ⇒ 收回；全程 <4.92% ⇒ 成立
坏消息已经进了价：9 月非农只增 2.9 万，财政部官方两年期反而从 4.78% 升到 4.83%，周四已因两位美联储官员说不急一天降了 10 个基点；10 月 9 日（周五）前两年期收不回 4.92%
Test: 10-09 前财政部官方两年期任一收盘 ≥4.92% ⇒ 收回；全程 <4.92% ⇒ 成立
10.01Long-end compensation has not retreatedOpen · est. 10.30
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
10.01 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
长端的补偿没退：加息从 10 月挪到 12 月对十年平均利率影响很小，十年期本来就该比两年期降得少；补偿高看水平，十年期 5.24% 仍在 2002 年以来高位、三十年期 5.61%，ISM 原料价格分项 71.1→77.9、油价涨 3%；10 月 30 日十年期仍收在 5% 以上
Test: 10-30 财政部官方十年期收 <5.00% ⇒ 收回；≥5.00% ⇒ 成立
长端的补偿没退：加息从 10 月挪到 12 月对十年平均利率影响很小，十年期本来就该比两年期降得少；补偿高看水平，十年期 5.24% 仍在 2002 年以来高位、三十年期 5.61%，ISM 原料价格分项 71.1→77.9、油价涨 3%；10 月 30 日十年期仍收在 5% 以上
Test: 10-30 财政部官方十年期收 <5.00% ⇒ 收回；≥5.00% ⇒ 成立
10.01The retreat in hike bets is more than a one-day moveHolds by its test
Settlement
Holds by its test: it would be withdrawn if the official 2-year closed at or above 4.92% after payrolls on October 2; it closed at 4.83% (4.78% on October 1). To be plain: the 2-year rose 5 basis points on payrolls day and is only 9 short of the line, so J-1002-01 runs to October 9.
Holds by its test: it would be withdrawn if the official 2-year closed at or above 4.92% after payrolls on October 2; it closed at 4.83% (4.78% on October 1). To be plain: the 2-year rose 5 basis points on payrolls day and is only 9 short of the line, so J-1002-01 runs to October 9.
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
10.01 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
加息押注退潮不是一天的事：两位美联储官员说不急，CME 10 月加息概率一周从 68.6% 跌到 24.9%，财政部官方两年期 4.88→4.78（降 10 个基点，9 月加息以来单日最大降幅），十年期只降 5 个基点；10 月 2 日非农之后两年期回不到威廉姆斯讲话前的周一水平 4.92%
Test: 10-02 非农后财政部官方两年期收 ≥4.92% ⇒ 收回；<4.92% ⇒ 成立
加息押注退潮不是一天的事：两位美联储官员说不急，CME 10 月加息概率一周从 68.6% 跌到 24.9%，财政部官方两年期 4.88→4.78（降 10 个基点，9 月加息以来单日最大降幅），十年期只降 5 个基点；10 月 2 日非农之后两年期回不到威廉姆斯讲话前的周一水平 4.92%
Test: 10-02 非农后财政部官方两年期收 ≥4.92% ⇒ 收回；<4.92% ⇒ 成立
10.02 Settled
成立，按判据成立：判据为 10-02 非农后财政部官方两年期收 ≥4.92% 即收回；10-02 官方两年期收 4.83%（10-01 4.78%），在 4.92% 以下。照实记：非农当天两年期反而升 5 个基点，离线只剩 9 个基点，故另立 J-1002-01 看到 10-09
Result: 成立
成立，按判据成立：判据为 10-02 非农后财政部官方两年期收 ≥4.92% 即收回；10-02 官方两年期收 4.83%（10-01 4.78%），在 4.92% 以下。照实记：非农当天两年期反而升 5 个基点，离线只剩 9 个基点，故另立 J-1002-01 看到 10-09
Result: 成立
09.29The rise in rates on Tuesday came from lenders of long money asking for more compensation, not from hike expectationsHolds by its test
Settlement
Holds by its test: it would be withdrawn if, before payrolls on October 2 (using the October 1 Treasury close), the 2-year rose back above 4.92% and rose more than the 10-year that day. On October 1 the official 2-year fell from 4.88% to 4.78% (down 10 basis points) and the 10-year from 5.29% to 5.24% (down 5), so the 2-year did not return to 4.92% and fell more than the 10-year; the withdrawal condition was not met. The same week hike bets faded (CME October hike odds from 68.6% to 24.9% in a week), the short end followed and the long end fell only half as much, so long-term compensation did not retreat, consistent with the original reading
Holds by its test: it would be withdrawn if, before payrolls on October 2 (using the October 1 Treasury close), the 2-year rose back above 4.92% and rose more than the 10-year that day. On October 1 the official 2-year fell from 4.88% to 4.78% (down 10 basis points) and the 10-year from 5.29% to 5.24% (down 5), so the 2-year did not return to 4.92% and fell more than the 10-year; the withdrawal condition was not met. The same week hike bets faded (CME October hike odds from 68.6% to 24.9% in a week), the short end followed and the long end fell only half as much, so long-term compensation did not retreat, consistent with the original reading
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.29 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
周二的利率上行来自长钱要求更多补偿，不来自加息预期：财政部官方两年期 4.92→4.89、六个月期 4.41→4.36，十年期 5.24→5.26、三十年期 5.56→5.59；同日原油基金跌 4.4%、9 月消费者信心 81.9 为 2014 年以来最低
Test: 10-02 非农公布前（取 10-01 收盘财政部官方表）两年期回到 4.92% 以上，且当日升幅大于十年期 ⇒ 收回
周二的利率上行来自长钱要求更多补偿，不来自加息预期：财政部官方两年期 4.92→4.89、六个月期 4.41→4.36，十年期 5.24→5.26、三十年期 5.56→5.59；同日原油基金跌 4.4%、9 月消费者信心 81.9 为 2014 年以来最低
Test: 10-02 非农公布前（取 10-01 收盘财政部官方表）两年期回到 4.92% 以上，且当日升幅大于十年期 ⇒ 收回
10.02 Settled
成立，按判据成立：收回条件是 10-02 非农公布前（取 10-01 收盘财政部官方表）两年期回到 4.92% 以上、且当日升幅大于十年期。10-01 官方两年期 4.88→4.78（降 10 个基点），十年期 5.29→5.24（降 5 个基点），两年期没有回到 4.92%，反而降得比十年期多，收回条件未触发。同一周加息押注退潮（CME 10 月加息概率一周从 68.6% 到 24.9%），短端跟着降、长端只降了一半，长期补偿没有跟着退，和立案时的读法一致
Result: 成立
成立，按判据成立：收回条件是 10-02 非农公布前（取 10-01 收盘财政部官方表）两年期回到 4.92% 以上、且当日升幅大于十年期。10-01 官方两年期 4.88→4.78（降 10 个基点），十年期 5.29→5.24（降 5 个基点），两年期没有回到 4.92%，反而降得比十年期多，收回条件未触发。同一周加息押注退潮（CME 10 月加息概率一周从 68.6% 到 24.9%），短端跟着降、长端只降了一半，长期补偿没有跟着退，和立案时的读法一致
Result: 成立
09.23Far-dated long-bond calls are a bet that rates peak and come back within one to two years.confirmed
Settlement
confirmed
confirmed
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.23 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
远端长债看涨是押利率一两年内见顶回落：2028-01 81C/82C、2028-06 87C/88C 一天成交约 7.9 万张，四档都超过原持仓，87C 是原持仓 60 倍；长债收 80.46
Test: 09-24 晨结算四档合计留存 <50% ⇒ 当天进出，收回
远端长债看涨是押利率一两年内见顶回落：2028-01 81C/82C、2028-06 87C/88C 一天成交约 7.9 万张，四档都超过原持仓，87C 是原持仓 60 倍；长债收 80.46
Test: 09-24 晨结算四档合计留存 <50% ⇒ 当天进出，收回
09.24 Settled
成立结清：09-24 晨结算四档合计留存 93.5%，远过 50%。2028-01 81C 3013→14528（ΔOI 11515 ÷ 当日成交 12081 ＝ 95.3%）；82C 12683→31746（19063 ÷ 22597 ＝ 84.4%）；2028-06 87C 356→21096（20740 ÷ 21295 ＝ 97.4%）；88C 1727→24585（22858 ÷ 23380 ＝ 97.8%）。四档合计 ΔOI 74176 ÷ 79353。押利率两年内回落的远端长债看涨过夜几乎全留，是建仓不是当天进出
Result: 成立
成立结清：09-24 晨结算四档合计留存 93.5%，远过 50%。2028-01 81C 3013→14528（ΔOI 11515 ÷ 当日成交 12081 ＝ 95.3%）；82C 12683→31746（19063 ÷ 22597 ＝ 84.4%）；2028-06 87C 356→21096（20740 ÷ 21295 ＝ 97.4%）；88C 1727→24585（22858 ÷ 23380 ＝ 97.8%）。四档合计 ΔOI 74176 ÷ 79353。押利率两年内回落的远端长债看涨过夜几乎全留，是建仓不是当天进出
Result: 成立
09.23This is a real-rate shock that has not reached credit.Also: HYG, LQD, GS, JPMRight, it stands on its terms, but the bank half missed by 0
Settlement
Right, it stands on its terms, but the bank half missed by 0.03: the call would be withdrawn if, before the Sep 30 close, the median AI-issuer bond spread widened 15 basis points or more from 58.6 on Sep 23 (to 73.6), or the six-bank average one-month protection price rose 2 points or more from 29.98 (to 31.98). The spread median ran 55.7, 59.3, 64.2, 60.35 and 65.25, peaking on Sep 30 only 6.65 basis points wider; the bank average ran 30.56, 30.83, 31.55, 31.95 and 30.57, peaking on Sep 29 just 0.03 below the line before easing on Sep 30. Both moved toward the line without reaching it: Oracle spread 160.3 to 175.8, Intel 70.3 to 87.4, Nvidia 23.2 to 45.1. The shock is seeping into credit, but on its terms it has not reached it
Right, it stands on its terms, but the bank half missed by 0.03: the call would be withdrawn if, before the Sep 30 close, the median AI-issuer bond spread widened 15 basis points or more from 58.6 on Sep 23 (to 73.6), or the six-bank average one-month protection price rose 2 points or more from 29.98 (to 31.98). The spread median ran 55.7, 59.3, 64.2, 60.35 and 65.25, peaking on Sep 30 only 6.65 basis points wider; the bank average ran 30.56, 30.83, 31.55, 31.95 and 30.57, peaking on Sep 29 just 0.03 below the line before easing on Sep 30. Both moved toward the line without reaching it: Oracle spread 160.3 to 175.8, Intel 70.3 to 87.4, Nvidia 23.2 to 45.1. The shock is seeping into credit, but on its terms it has not reached it
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.23 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
这次是真实利率冲击，还没传到信用：十年期涨约 15bp 里真实利率约 12.5bp、通胀预期约 2bp（外部拆解）；Meta、甲骨文、亚马逊、谷歌公司债对国债利差基本没动（CoreWeave +31bp 例外），银行六家 cm30 均值 +0.04
Test: 09-30 收盘前，AI 发行人信用替代表利差中位数较 09-23 扩大 ≥15bp，或银行六家 cm30 均值较 09-23（29.98）升 ≥2 点 ⇒ 收回
这次是真实利率冲击，还没传到信用：十年期涨约 15bp 里真实利率约 12.5bp、通胀预期约 2bp（外部拆解）；Meta、甲骨文、亚马逊、谷歌公司债对国债利差基本没动（CoreWeave +31bp 例外），银行六家 cm30 均值 +0.04
Test: 09-30 收盘前，AI 发行人信用替代表利差中位数较 09-23 扩大 ≥15bp，或银行六家 cm30 均值较 09-23（29.98）升 ≥2 点 ⇒ 收回
10.01 Settled
对，按判据成立，但银行那半只差 0.03：收回条件是 09-30 收盘前，AI 发行人公司债利差中位数比 09-23 的 58.6 个基点扩大 15 个基点以上（到 73.6），或银行六家一个月保护价均值比 09-23 的 29.98 升 2 点以上（到 31.98），任一条触发就收回。利差中位数逐日是 55.7、59.3、64.2、60.35、65.25，最高在 09-30，比立案日只扩大 6.65 个基点；银行六家均值逐日是 30.56、30.83、31.55、31.95、30.57，最高在 09-29，离收回线 31.98 只差 0.03，09-30 回落。两条都在往收回线走，只是没走到：甲骨文利差 160.3→175.8、英特尔 70.3→87.4、英伟达 23.2→45.1，冲击在往信用渗，按判据还算没传到
Result: 对
对，按判据成立，但银行那半只差 0.03：收回条件是 09-30 收盘前，AI 发行人公司债利差中位数比 09-23 的 58.6 个基点扩大 15 个基点以上（到 73.6），或银行六家一个月保护价均值比 09-23 的 29.98 升 2 点以上（到 31.98），任一条触发就收回。利差中位数逐日是 55.7、59.3、64.2、60.35、65.25，最高在 09-30，比立案日只扩大 6.65 个基点；银行六家均值逐日是 30.56、30.83、31.55、31.95、30.57，最高在 09-29，离收回线 31.98 只差 0.03，09-30 回落。两条都在往收回线走，只是没走到：甲骨文利差 160.3→175.8、英特尔 70.3→87.4、英伟达 23.2→45.1，冲击在往信用渗，按判据还算没传到
Result: 对
09.18Confirmed and closed: what was protected was rates, not companiesconfirmed
Settlement
confirmed
confirmed
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.18 Settled
成立结清：被保护的是利率不是公司，TLT iv_pctl 盘前 96.0（09-16）→84.5→51.4 三天退 45 分位；09-18 42 只里保护在涨的只有加密三只与 SNDK/C/JPM
Result: 成立
成立结清：被保护的是利率不是公司，TLT iv_pctl 盘前 96.0（09-16）→84.5→51.4 三天退 45 分位；09-18 42 只里保护在涨的只有加密三只与 SNDK/C/JPM
Result: 成立
09.17Withdrawn: the money that left came back.Also: SMH, INTC, AMD, SNDK, MUwithdrawn
Settlement
withdrawn
withdrawn
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.17 Settled
收回：退出去的钱回来了。收回条件「决议后 SMH 与 TLT 同日领涨」成立：SMH +2.75（板块 ETF 第一）、TLT +1.11（债券 ETF 第一）；回来第一天买的是 INTC intra +3.92 / SMCI +6.09 / SNDK +3.19 / MU +2.40 / AMD +2.15（跳空表 EOD 17:15）
Result: 收回
收回：退出去的钱回来了。收回条件「决议后 SMH 与 TLT 同日领涨」成立：SMH +2.75（板块 ETF 第一）、TLT +1.11（债券 ETF 第一）；回来第一天买的是 INTC intra +3.92 / SMCI +6.09 / SNDK +3.19 / MU +2.40 / AMD +2.15（跳空表 EOD 17:15）
Result: 收回
09.17Confirmed and closed: stocks changed their mind first while bonds did not .Also: SPYconfirmed
Settlement
confirmed
confirmed
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.17 Settled
成立结清：股市先改口（09-16 SPY cm30 14.46 >14），债市未改口（MOVE 80.73 >76）；09-17 股市改口又退回（12.30），债市 TLT 看涨第三天放大
Result: 成立
成立结清：股市先改口（09-16 SPY cm30 14.46 >14），债市未改口（MOVE 80.73 >76）；09-17 股市改口又退回（12.30），债市 TLT 看涨第三天放大
Result: 成立
09.16Bonds are betting the peak is in on a two-week to one-month horizon while stocks started buying October insuranceAlso: IWM, SPYRight, it stands on its terms
Settlement
Right, it stands on its terms: the bond half (betting rates had peaked) would be withdrawn only if, before Sep 30, the long-Treasury fund closed below 80 and open interest in the Oct 16 83 call stopped rising, both at once. The fund closed at 77.78 on Sep 30, meeting the first; the 83 call open interest rose from 151602 on Sep 17 to 206070 at the Sep 29 settlement, so the second was not met. The bet is still there and so far it is losing: the 83 call closed at 9 cents; open interest in the 80 call went from 69172 to 135120, and on Sep 30 another 96813 Nov 30 83 calls traded against open interest of 3495, so holders are moving strikes down and dates out, not giving up
Right, it stands on its terms: the bond half (betting rates had peaked) would be withdrawn only if, before Sep 30, the long-Treasury fund closed below 80 and open interest in the Oct 16 83 call stopped rising, both at once. The fund closed at 77.78 on Sep 30, meeting the first; the 83 call open interest rose from 151602 on Sep 17 to 206070 at the Sep 29 settlement, so the second was not met. The bet is still there and so far it is losing: the 83 call closed at 9 cents; open interest in the 80 call went from 69172 to 135120, and on Sep 30 another 96813 Nov 30 83 calls traded against open interest of 3495, so holders are moving strikes down and dates out, not giving up
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.16 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
债市押利率见顶（两周到一个月），股市开始为十月买保险：TLT vol≥1000 档看涨 227716 对看跌 41599（10.16 83C 44054 / 82C 22325 / 80C 13308；09.30 82/83/84C 各约 1.7 万），TLT 收 80.88（+0.21）、cm30 12.00（−0.87）；IWM 10.16 270–273P 216111（全天 P 416560 / C 107315）；SPY 10.16 P 198039 / C 91599、09.30 P 105223 / C 58232；SPY cm30 14.46（09-15 13.91）
Test: ①09.18 前 SPY cm30 <14 ⇒ 股票买保险那半句是三巫对冲，收回；②09.30 前 TLT 收 <80 且 10.16 83C OI 不增 ⇒ 债市押见顶那半句收回。近月表只引 EOD 轮 vol≥1000 档；OI 明早 行情尺 取（83C 823584368 / 82C 823584251 / 80C 823584050）
债市押利率见顶（两周到一个月），股市开始为十月买保险：TLT vol≥1000 档看涨 227716 对看跌 41599（10.16 83C 44054 / 82C 22325 / 80C 13308；09.30 82/83/84C 各约 1.7 万），TLT 收 80.88（+0.21）、cm30 12.00（−0.87）；IWM 10.16 270–273P 216111（全天 P 416560 / C 107315）；SPY 10.16 P 198039 / C 91599、09.30 P 105223 / C 58232；SPY cm30 14.46（09-15 13.91）
Test: ①09.18 前 SPY cm30 <14 ⇒ 股票买保险那半句是三巫对冲，收回；②09.30 前 TLT 收 <80 且 10.16 83C OI 不增 ⇒ 债市押见顶那半句收回。近月表只引 EOD 轮 vol≥1000 档；OI 明早 行情尺 取（83C 823584368 / 82C 823584251 / 80C 823584050）
09.17 Settled
股市半句收回：SPY cm30 12.30 <14（比 09-11 的 12.45 还低），昨天那批是三巫前对冲；但 IWM 10.16 270–273P 09-17 晨 OI +52164（留 24%）、09-17 又成交 299053（P/C 3.89）并记。债市半句成立第一天：TLT 收 81.78，10.16 83C OI 125772→151602（+25830，留 59%）/ 82C +8592 / 80C +6733（合计留 52%），09-17 TLT 看涨 279207 张第三天放大，10.23 83C 新开 27512
Test: 债市半句照原条件（09.30 前 TLT <80 且 83C OI 不增 ⇒ 收回）
Result: 半收回
股市半句收回：SPY cm30 12.30 <14（比 09-11 的 12.45 还低），昨天那批是三巫前对冲；但 IWM 10.16 270–273P 09-17 晨 OI +52164（留 24%）、09-17 又成交 299053（P/C 3.89）并记。债市半句成立第一天：TLT 收 81.78，10.16 83C OI 125772→151602（+25830，留 59%）/ 82C +8592 / 80C +6733（合计留 52%），09-17 TLT 看涨 279207 张第三天放大，10.23 83C 新开 27512
Test: 债市半句照原条件（09.30 前 TLT <80 且 83C OI 不增 ⇒ 收回）
Result: 半收回
09.30 Settled
对，按判据成立：债市押利率见顶那半句的推翻条件是 09.30 前长债基金收在 80 以下、并且 10.16 约定价 83 的看涨持仓不再增加，两条要同时满足。长债基金 09.30 收 77.78，第一条碰了；83C 持仓从 09-17 的 151602 张增加到 09-29 结算的 206070 张，第二条没碰。押注还在，但押的方向到今天是亏的：83C 收在 0.09 美元；同批 80C 持仓 69172→135120，09-30 又有 11-30 到期 83C 成交 96813 张对持仓 3495，押注的人在往下挪价、往后挪时间，没有认输
Result: 对
对，按判据成立：债市押利率见顶那半句的推翻条件是 09.30 前长债基金收在 80 以下、并且 10.16 约定价 83 的看涨持仓不再增加，两条要同时满足。长债基金 09.30 收 77.78，第一条碰了；83C 持仓从 09-17 的 151602 张增加到 09-29 结算的 206070 张，第二条没碰。押注还在，但押的方向到今天是亏的：83C 收在 0.09 美元；同批 80C 持仓 69172→135120，09-30 又有 11-30 到期 83C 成交 96813 张对持仓 3495，押注的人在往下挪价、往后挪时间，没有认输
Result: 对
09.15The worst auction day did not knock long bonds down because yields above 5% brought new buyers in, and the options crowd is betting long yields come d…confirmed
Settlement
confirmed
confirmed
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.15 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
拍卖最差的一天没有把长债砸下去，5% 以上有人接，期权里那批人赌决议后长端回落：20Y 得标 5.420%/尾差 2bp/间接 52.5%；TLT gap −0.37 intra +0.10 chg −0.27 1.03x 区间位 60%；近月 vol≥1000 档看涨 161025 对看跌 46517，10.16 80C 41062（7.39x）
Test: 决议后两天 TLT 收 <80 且 10.16 80C OI 09-17 结算 <20000 ⇒ 收回。最晚取数日 09-17
拍卖最差的一天没有把长债砸下去，5% 以上有人接，期权里那批人赌决议后长端回落：20Y 得标 5.420%/尾差 2bp/间接 52.5%；TLT gap −0.37 intra +0.10 chg −0.27 1.03x 区间位 60%；近月 vol≥1000 档看涨 161025 对看跌 46517，10.16 80C 41062（7.39x）
Test: 决议后两天 TLT 收 <80 且 10.16 80C OI 09-17 结算 <20000 ⇒ 收回。最晚取数日 09-17
09.18 Settled
成立结清：决议后第二天 TLT 收 81.25 >80；80C OI 09-18 晨 14813 <20000 ⇒「TLT <80 且 OI <20000」两半没同时成立，拍卖最差那天 5% 以上有人接
Result: 成立
成立结清：决议后第二天 TLT 收 81.25 >80；80C OI 09-18 晨 14813 <20000 ⇒「TLT <80 且 OI <20000」两半没同时成立，拍卖最差那天 5% 以上有人接
Result: 成立
09.11What got cheaper today is protection for the meeting day, not for the road after the hikeAlso: SPY, QQQ, IWM, MOVEconfirmed
Settlement
confirmed
confirmed
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.11 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
今天便宜下来的是议息那一天的保护，加息之后那段路的保护没便宜：29 个标的三十天保护价钱无一上涨（SPY cm30 14.35→12.45 本表最大单日降幅、QQQ 20.12→17.39、TLT 12.59→10.91）、VIX9D 17.70→14.47、VIX1Y 22.23→21.75，同日 MOVE 82.09→82.21 一分没便宜。给股票做保护的人退了，给利率做保护的人没退
Test: ①09.16 后 MOVE 若跌回 76 以下 ⇒ 给利率做保护的人也退了，收回；②09.15 前 SPY cm30 若重回 14 以上 ⇒ 今日之便宜为到期日对冲消失（09-11 到期 6.69 亿），收回。MOVE 只引 每日MOVE.csv，cm30 只引 15:45 主枪
今天便宜下来的是议息那一天的保护，加息之后那段路的保护没便宜：29 个标的三十天保护价钱无一上涨（SPY cm30 14.35→12.45 本表最大单日降幅、QQQ 20.12→17.39、TLT 12.59→10.91）、VIX9D 17.70→14.47、VIX1Y 22.23→21.75，同日 MOVE 82.09→82.21 一分没便宜。给股票做保护的人退了，给利率做保护的人没退
Test: ①09.16 后 MOVE 若跌回 76 以下 ⇒ 给利率做保护的人也退了，收回；②09.15 前 SPY cm30 若重回 14 以上 ⇒ 今日之便宜为到期日对冲消失（09-11 到期 6.69 亿），收回。MOVE 只引 每日MOVE.csv，cm30 只引 15:45 主枪
09.15 Settled
② 未触发：SPY cm30 09-15 15:45 主枪 13.91 <14 ⇒ 09-11 的便宜不是到期日对冲消失；① 待 09.16 后 MOVE（09-15 83.71 / 34.9）
Test: ① 09.16 后 MOVE <76 ⇒ 收回
Result: 保留
② 未触发：SPY cm30 09-15 15:45 主枪 13.91 <14 ⇒ 09-11 的便宜不是到期日对冲消失；① 待 09.16 后 MOVE（09-15 83.71 / 34.9）
Test: ① 09.16 后 MOVE <76 ⇒ 收回
Result: 保留
09.17 Settled
成立结清：MOVE 09-16 80.73 >76，给利率做保护的人没退；SPY cm30 09-15 前未过 14，到期日对冲说不成立；09-17 SPY cm30 12.30 又低于 09-11 的 12.45
Result: 成立
成立结清：MOVE 09-16 80.73 >76，给利率做保护的人没退；SPY cm30 09-15 前未过 14，到期日对冲说不成立；09-17 SPY cm30 12.30 又低于 09-11 的 12.45
Result: 成立
09.10Today's sort key was how soon the cash comes back, not the sectorAlso: XLP, XLU, SHY, IEF, LQD, SMHStands, one of two conditions met
Settlement
Stands, one of two conditions met
Stands, one of two conditions met
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.10 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
今天分家的标准是收钱的早晚不是行业：必需消费 +0.05% 对公用事业 −0.98%（昨天 −1.15 / −1.17 几乎同幅）；国债 SHY −0.25 < IEF −0.78 < LQD −0.90 < TLT −1.16 且每档深于昨日；半导体 −2.44 在股票里排最远端
Test: 09.11 CPI 后若 XLU 反超 XLP 且债券阶梯倒转（长端跌得比短端少），则今天的分家是一日噪音，收回。只引行情尺 kline 官方日线收盘
今天分家的标准是收钱的早晚不是行业：必需消费 +0.05% 对公用事业 −0.98%（昨天 −1.15 / −1.17 几乎同幅）；国债 SHY −0.25 < IEF −0.78 < LQD −0.90 < TLT −1.16 且每档深于昨日；半导体 −2.44 在股票里排最远端
Test: 09.11 CPI 后若 XLU 反超 XLP 且债券阶梯倒转（长端跌得比短端少），则今天的分家是一日噪音，收回。只引行情尺 kline 官方日线收盘
09.11 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
今天分家的标准是收钱的早晚不是行业——终审
Test: 09.11 CPI 后若 XLU 反超 XLP 且债券阶梯倒转（长端跌得比短端少），则今天的分家是一日噪音，收回。只引行情尺 kline 官方日线收盘
Result: 保留（两条件只成立一条）。XLP +0.35 / XLU −0.31 未反超；SHY −0.06 / IEF −0.19 / LQD −0.04 / TLT +0.11 阶梯倒转，长端为四档里唯一收正
今天分家的标准是收钱的早晚不是行业——终审
Test: 09.11 CPI 后若 XLU 反超 XLP 且债券阶梯倒转（长端跌得比短端少），则今天的分家是一日噪音，收回。只引行情尺 kline 官方日线收盘
Result: 保留（两条件只成立一条）。XLP +0.35 / XLU −0.31 未反超；SHY −0.06 / IEF −0.19 / LQD −0.04 / TLT +0.11 阶梯倒转，长端为四档里唯一收正
09.10The sellers acted in the index and in long bonds on heavy volume and took no view on single namesAlso: SMH, IWM, SPY, INTC, MU, SNDK, AMDStands
Settlement
Stands
Stands
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.10 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
卖的人在指数与长债上放量动手，没在个股上表态：SMH 1.91x / TLT 1.49x / IWM 1.41x / SPY 1.29x 对 INTC 0.99x / MU 1.08x / SNDK 0.90x / AMD 0.72x；同日指数 cm30 +1.24/+1.10 而单票 cm30 全退
Test: 09.11 若存储链放量（成交量 >1.3 倍昨日）续跌，则个股层面开始交货，收回。量比只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15 的 volume/prev_volume；IV 只引 15:45 主枪
卖的人在指数与长债上放量动手，没在个股上表态：SMH 1.91x / TLT 1.49x / IWM 1.41x / SPY 1.29x 对 INTC 0.99x / MU 1.08x / SNDK 0.90x / AMD 0.72x；同日指数 cm30 +1.24/+1.10 而单票 cm30 全退
Test: 09.11 若存储链放量（成交量 >1.3 倍昨日）续跌，则个股层面开始交货，收回。量比只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15 的 volume/prev_volume；IV 只引 15:45 主枪
09.11 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
卖的人在指数与长债上放量动手，没在个股上表态——终审
Test: 09.11 若存储链放量（成交量 >1.3 倍昨日）续跌，则个股层面开始交货，收回。量比只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15
Result: 保留。SNDK −3.50 / 1.07x、MU −0.22 / 0.83x、INTC +2.61 / 0.90x，无一放量 >1.3x；缩量续跌＝无人问津，不是有人交货
卖的人在指数与长债上放量动手，没在个股上表态——终审
Test: 09.11 若存储链放量（成交量 >1.3 倍昨日）续跌，则个股层面开始交货，收回。量比只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15
Result: 保留。SNDK −3.50 / 1.07x、MU −0.22 / 0.83x、INTC +2.61 / 0.90x，无一放量 >1.3x；缩量续跌＝无人问津，不是有人交货
08.31August issue, bonds: the market paid for one hike, not for a seriesAlso: MOVERight
Settlement
Right.
Right.
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
08.31 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
八月刊〔债市〕：市场为一次加息付了钱，没有为一串加息付钱。立案读数 08.31 MOVE 一天跳 4.35 收 75.32（分位 14.8→22.1），同日一年期落到 21.87、恐惧的标价读数 45.5，两个都是全月最低；TLT 期权 pc_vol 0.66、iv_pctl 32.8
Test: 九月议息后三个交易日内一年期读数抬过 55，或 MOVE 冲上近三年 90 百分位 ⇒ 收回认错。唯一来源＝恒定期限表 15:45 与 每日MOVE.csv
八月刊〔债市〕：市场为一次加息付了钱，没有为一串加息付钱。立案读数 08.31 MOVE 一天跳 4.35 收 75.32（分位 14.8→22.1），同日一年期落到 21.87、恐惧的标价读数 45.5，两个都是全月最低；TLT 期权 pc_vol 0.66、iv_pctl 32.8
Test: 九月议息后三个交易日内一年期读数抬过 55，或 MOVE 冲上近三年 90 百分位 ⇒ 收回认错。唯一来源＝恒定期限表 15:45 与 每日MOVE.csv
09.25 Settled
对，结清：两条推翻条件都没碰到。议息（09-16）后三个交易日一年期读数 42.0 / 41.8 / 43.0，没过 55；MOVE 三年分位 09-21 至 09-25 为 31.9 / 28.4 / 55.2 / 71.7 / 56.6，最高 71.7 未到 90。本周利率冲到 2007 年以来最高，利率保险两天涨三成多后周五回落 8%
Result: 对
对，结清：两条推翻条件都没碰到。议息（09-16）后三个交易日一年期读数 42.0 / 41.8 / 43.0，没过 55；MOVE 三年分位 09-21 至 09-25 为 31.9 / 28.4 / 55.2 / 71.7 / 56.6，最高 71.7 未到 90。本周利率冲到 2007 年以来最高，利率保险两天涨三成多后周五回落 8%
Result: 对
Cases for every name are in Chapter III of the options page. The ledger is append-only; a revision is a new row.
V
Other names
SPY
QQQ
IWM
SMH
XLF
XLK
XLV
AAPL
AMZN
GOOG
GOOGL
META
MSFT
NVDA
TSLA
SPCX
AVGO
TSM
AMD
INTC
MU
SNDK
MRVL
QCOM
SKHY
SMCI
DELL
ORCL
PLTR
CRWV
NBIS
COIN
HOOD
MSTR
SOFI
JPM
BAC
C
WFC
GS
KRE
V
MA
AXP
MS
SCHW
BLK
BRK.B
CRCL
WMT
COST
HD
TJX
MCD
KO
RACE
MC.PA
RMS.PA
How to read this page
· The one-year percentile and the 30-day and one-year implied vols come from two different sources; each is compared only with its own past, and the two are never spliced together.
· The 30-day and one-year vols are constant-maturity: interpolated between the two nearest expiries to exactly 30 and 365 days, read once before each close.
· A big-print row is one contract's full-day total, not a single trade. Without per-trade timestamps or aggressor side we state premium traded only.
· Every reading is cross-checked against two independent sources and updated once after the close. Raw data is not provided on this site.
· Data and information only; not investment advice; no buy or sell recommendations.
· The one-year percentile and the 30-day and one-year implied vols come from two different sources; each is compared only with its own past, and the two are never spliced together.
· The 30-day and one-year vols are constant-maturity: interpolated between the two nearest expiries to exactly 30 and 365 days, read once before each close.
· A big-print row is one contract's full-day total, not a single trade. Without per-trade timestamps or aggressor side we state premium traded only.
· Every reading is cross-checked against two independent sources and updated once after the close. Raw data is not provided on this site.
· Data and information only; not investment advice; no buy or sell recommendations.
Today's read on this name is in the subscriber email; past issues go public the next day.