Fear-Price

Options / Tickers / META

TICKER PAGE · META

Meta Platforms (META)

Is protection on Meta Platforms cheap or dear today, where has the money been placed, how did the past month play out, and how did the judgments we filed on Meta Platforms settle? Updated after every close, with right and wrong judgments alike left on the record.

Data date 10.07 · close 739.99 (—) · −5.11% from the 52-week high

I

Where it stands today

One-year IV percentile79 / 100

Where one-month protection (30-day implied volatility) sits within its past-year range, 0 the cheapest and 100 the dearest. Protection on Meta Platforms is now in the pricier part of the past year.

30-day / one-year implied vol (%)43.68 / 40.82

The 30-day sits 2.86 points above the one-year: something near-term is being priced on its own.

Expected move this week±2.1% ±15.77

Centred on the previous close of 738.88, option prices imply 723.11 to 754.65 at this week's expiry. A close outside it at expiry means the option sellers lose.

Put ÷ call (volume / open interest)0.49 / 0.62

Calls outtraded puts. It counts contracts, not direction: a put buyer may be insuring shares they own.

Levels from high to low, with distance from the close:

Expected move, high754.65+1.98%Centred on the previous close: the implied top at this week's expiry.
Call wall750+1.35%The strike with the most call open interest: an upside target someone has already made a down payment on.
Close739.99
Expected move, low723.11−2.28%Centred on the previous close: the implied bottom at this week's expiry.
Put wall700−5.40%The strike with the most put open interest: protection someone already paid for.
Flip level612.83−17.18%Above it, dealer hedging damps moves; below it, hedging amplifies them.

Data date 10.07. Updated once after each trading day's close; spot is the official close.

II

The last 30 trading days

Close, flip level, put wall and call wall, day by day: which side of the walls price is on, and whether the walls moved.

One-year and 30-day implied vol, day by day. The short line jumping while the long line holds means only the near-term event is being repriced; the long line rising too means the whole story is.

Shown: the last 30 trading days. Earlier records are in Chapter V (walls) and Chapter VII (implied vol) of the options page.

III

Today's big prints

No Meta Platforms contract made today's leaderboard.

Data date only. The board for every name is in Chapter IV of the options page.

IV

Valuation and profitability

P/E (TTM)
27.3
Forward P/E
20.9
P/S
8.1
P/B
7.1
ROE
29.8%
Gross margin
81.7%
Net margin
29.8%
Dividend yield
0.29%

The latest P/E (2026.10.02) is 27.4, the 45th percentile of 58 readings since 2012 (0 is the cheapest in that history, 100 the dearest; past readings are taken at quarter-ends). Meta Platforms is compared only with its own past.

At the latest quarter-end: ROE 29.7% (2026.06.30), ROIC 25.5% (2026.06.30).

As of 2026.10.03, updated weekly. Full profit, return, valuation and dividend charts are in the Tech stock view.

V

Every case we filed on it

Each judgment is written down with its test before the fact, settled by that test, and left standing when wrong. These are all the cases that name Meta Platforms, none removed. Open one for the original filing.

5cases since 08.17
5settled
0open
09.21A stock rising with its insurance is the chasers attaching protection, not a short squeeze.Also: INTC, QCOM, MSTR, AMDconfirmed
Settlement
confirmed
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.21 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
股价涨保险跟着涨，是追的人自己在买保护，不是空头回补。INTC cm30 +9.49 / META +7.05 / QCOM +6.36 / MSTR +6.25 / AMD +5.63，同日 SPY cm30 12.22 不动
Test: 09.25 前这五只里三只以上股价续涨而 cm30 回落到 09-18 水平以下（62.69/37.64/46.38/67.70/48.82）⇒ 是空头回补，收回。cm30 只引 15:45 主枪
09.25 Settled
成立结清：收回要三只以上「股价续涨且 cm30 回落到 09-18 以下」，一只都没有。股价对 09-21 收盘：INTC 121.78→123.00、META 741.25→751.66、QCOM 194.23→201.97、AMD 615.52→630.63 续涨，MSTR 168.50→158.61 回落；cm30（15:45 主枪）09-25 对 09-18 基准：INTC 72.88/62.69、META 41.30/37.64、QCOM 49.67/46.38、AMD 50.56/48.82，全部仍在基准之上（MSTR 64.17/67.70 回落但股价没涨）。追的人买的保护一周后退了一部分（四只都比 09-21 峰值低），没有退回原位
Result: 成立
09.21The 130 million in calls before Connect is a bet on the event, not on the trend.Stands, one of two conditions met
Settlement
Stands, one of two conditions met
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.21 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
Meta 周三 Connect 前的 1.3 亿看涨是押事件不是押趋势：10.02 720C 4733 张 14x / 740C 5858 张 10x / 745C 25.8x，09.30 750C 6973 张对持仓 50
Test: 09-25 收盘 Meta 仍在 741.25 上方且 10.02 三档 OI 留存 >50% ⇒ 是趋势，收回
09.25 Settled
站住，两条收回条件只碰到一条：Meta 09-25 收 751.66，在 741.25 上方（这一条满足）；10.02 三档 720C/740C/745C 结算持仓 09-24 为 2181/3759/1922 合计 7862，对立案前 1061、当日成交 14536，留存 (7862−1061)/14536＝46.8%，未过 50%。本周读数 43%→44%→43%→46.8%，一路贴在线下。按判据是押事件；但股价和留存都贴近收回线，写成擦边站住，不写成赢
Result: 成立（擦边）
09.15Decision-day money split direction on two namesAlso: TSLA, MUsellers won
Settlement
sellers won
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.15 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
决议日的钱在两只票上分了方向：特斯拉押跌（$171.8M 看跌 74%）、Meta 押涨（$112.1M 看涨 66%）、美光押动（930 两边各万余张）；隐含一日波动 TSLA 2.2% / MU 2.5% / META 1.9%
Test: 09.16 收盘 TSLA >350 ⇒ 看跌大半归零，方向读对结果没读对，记账不改判；TSLA 单日 |chg| >2.2% ⇒ 卖保护的输
09.16 Settled
卖保护的赢，押跌方向对、规模读大了：TSLA 收 358.08（+0.42%，振幅 2.86% 对隐含 2.2%）、MU 926.55（−0.11%，振幅 2.54% 对 2.5%）、META 673.31（+0.46%，振幅 2.00% 对 1.9%），三只收盘全在预期波动内；TSLA 六档看跌四档归零，360P 剩 1.92（昨收 5.74）、362.5P 剩 4.42（昨收 7.47）。追加：六档 09-16 结算 OI 只增 13144（3.9%），$171.8M 是日内进出
Result: 卖保护的赢
09.03The at-the-money puts expiring tomorrow are insurance on the payrolls print rather than a view on the companyunattributable
Settlement
unattributable
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.03 Filed (confidence: More likely)
META 明天到期那批贴现价看跌是为就业数据买的保险，不是对公司的看法：股价当天涨 3.01%、无坏消息，而倍数最高的四档全是看跌且行权价压在收盘价上下
Test: 09.04 收盘：若 META 当日波动幅度明显大于其近月常态而方向不定，则「买的是事件不是方向」成立；若它平静收在 610 附近而那批看跌归零，则本判断降为无法归因。🚫 只引收盘价与短打表 EOD 轮，不引任何盘中读数
09.04 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
按判据落在第二支：META 09-04 平静收在 616.77，真振幅 2.00% 低于近月常态中位 2.92%（38 个交易日里 32 天比它大，约 16 分位）
Test: 09.04 收盘：若 META 当日波动幅度明显大于其近月常态而方向不定，则「买的是事件不是方向」成立；若它平静收在 610 附近而那批看跌归零，则本判断降为无法归因。🚫 只引收盘价与短打表 EOD 轮，不引任何盘中读数
Result: 无法归因
09.08 Settled
无法归因（按立案条件降级）：09.04 收 616.77 涨 1.00%，区间 605.27 到 617.46、振幅 1.99%，不到盘前给的 3.3% 一半；610P 终值 0.06、612.5P 0.24、615P 0.91 三档贴近归零；当日新钱换到看涨侧（612.5C 42964 张、23.31 倍、1374 万）
Result: 无法归因
08.17In the same-day-expiry layer, the overwhelming majority of volume has nothing to do with directionAlso: SPY, QQQ, MU, NVDA (13 names in all)Not determinable
Settlement
Not determinable. The filing hard-coded its test as "only rows in the daily contract observation log whose source is the quote-screen OCR feed," and that source recorded nothing from 2026-08-18 through the settlement date — a direct check of 08-18 to 08-26 returns zero rows. The input the test required was never produced, so this case physically cannot be settled.
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
08.17 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
当日到期这一层，绝大部分成交量与方向无关：13 只里 11 只最热档是看跌，12 只行权价贴在收盘价 ±1% 内
Test: 后续三个到期日统计：最热档若系统性偏离现价（|行权价−收盘|/收盘 > 1% 的票占多数），则本判断不成立，08-17 记为单日形状；仍贴现价则加强。只引 每日合约观察日志.csv 里 source=行情尺截图OCR 的行
08.26 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
当日到期这一层，绝大部分成交量与方向无关：13 只里 11 只最热档是看跌，12 只行权价贴在收盘价 ±1% 内——终审
Test: 后续三个到期日统计：最热档若系统性偏离现价（|行权价−收盘|/收盘 > 1% 的票占多数），则本判断不成立，08-17 记为单日形状；仍贴现价则加强。只引 每日合约观察日志.csv 里 source=行情尺截图OCR 的行
Result: 无法判定。立案时把判据写死为「只引 每日合约观察日志.csv 里 source=行情尺截图OCR 的行」，而该来源自 2026-08-18 起至开奖日一行未入库(实查 08-18~08-26 共 0 行)⇒ 判据所需的输入从未产生，本判断在物理上无法执行开奖。

Cases for every name are in Chapter III of the options page. The ledger is append-only; a revision is a new row.

VI

Other names

Decades of Meta Platforms price history and drawdowns are in The Archive · Tech.

Index · ETFSPYQQQIWMTLTSMHXLFXLKXLV
Mag 8AAPLAMZNGOOGGOOGLMETAMSFTNVDATSLASPCX
Semis · MemoryAVGOTSMAMDINTCMUSNDKMRVLQCOMSKHYSMCIDELL
Software · AI CloudORCLPLTRCRWVNBIS
Crypto · BrokersCOINHOODMSTRSOFI
BanksJPMBACCWFCGSKRE
Payments · Brokers · Asset managersVMAAXPMSSCHWBLKBRK.BCRCL
Consumer · LuxuryWMTCOSTHDTJXMCDKORACEMC.PARMS.PA
How to read this page
· The one-year percentile and the 30-day and one-year implied vols come from two different sources; each is compared only with its own past, and the two are never spliced together.
· The 30-day and one-year vols are constant-maturity: interpolated between the two nearest expiries to exactly 30 and 365 days, read once before each close.
· A big-print row is one contract's full-day total, not a single trade. Without per-trade timestamps or aggressor side we state premium traded only.
· Every reading is cross-checked against two independent sources and updated once after the close. Raw data is not provided on this site.
· Valuation ratios, margins and returns are computed from the company's filed quarterly and annual reports, on the same basis as the sector stock view, and updated weekly.
· The P/E percentile compares the company only with its own quarter-end record, never with other companies, and is not spliced with the current readings above.
· Data and information only; not investment advice; no buy or sell recommendations.

Today's read on this name is in the subscriber email; past issues go public the next day.