Super Micro Computer (SMCI)

Is protection on Super Micro Computer cheap or dear today, where has the money been placed, how did the past month play out, and how did the judgments we filed on Super Micro Computer settle? Updated after every close, with right and wrong judgments alike left on the record.

Data date 10.07 · close 42.9 (—) · −27.02% from the 52-week high

Where it stands today

One-year IV percentile51 / 100

Where one-month protection (30-day implied volatility) sits within its past-year range, 0 the cheapest and 100 the dearest. Protection on Super Micro Computer is now in the middle of the past year.

30-day / one-year implied vol (%)80.14 / 74.01

The 30-day sits 6.13 points above the one-year: something near-term is being priced on its own.

Expected move this week±4.4% ±1.93

Centred on the previous close of 43.46, option prices imply 41.53 to 45.39 at this week's expiry. A close outside it at expiry means the option sellers lose.

Put ÷ call (volume / open interest)0.4 / 0.29

Calls outtraded puts. It counts contracts, not direction: a put buyer may be insuring shares they own.

Levels from high to low, with distance from the close:

Expected move, high	45.39	+5.80%	Centred on the previous close: the implied top at this week's expiry.
Call wall	45	+4.90%	The strike with the most call open interest: an upside target someone has already made a down payment on.
Close	42.9
Expected move, low	41.53	−3.19%	Centred on the previous close: the implied bottom at this week's expiry.
Put wall	40	−6.76%	The strike with the most put open interest: protection someone already paid for.
Flip level	37.95	−11.54%	Above it, dealer hedging damps moves; below it, hedging amplifies them.

Data date 10.07. Updated once after each trading day's close; spot is the official close.

The last 30 trading days

Close, flip level, put wall and call wall, day by day: which side of the walls price is on, and whether the walls moved.

One-year and 30-day implied vol, day by day. The short line jumping while the long line holds means only the near-term event is being repriced; the long line rising too means the whole story is.

Shown: the last 30 trading days. Earlier records are in Chapter V (walls) and Chapter VII (implied vol) of the options page.

III

Today's big prints

Today Super Micro Computer calls traded $4.7M in premium and puts $854K. Traded, not bought: we cannot see who bought and who sold.

No Super Micro Computer contract made today's leaderboard.

Data date only. The board for every name is in Chapter IV of the options page.

Every case we filed on it

Each judgment is written down with its test before the fact, settled by that test, and left standing when wrong. These are all the cases that name Super Micro Computer, none removed. Open one for the original filing.

2cases since 09.11

2settled

0open

09.17The money that left came back to chips, and the buyers are insuring a year outAlso: SMH, INTC, AMD, SNDK, MUconfirmed

Settlement
confirmed

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

09.17 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
退出去的钱回到了芯片，回来的人在配一年期保险：SMH +2.75 板块第一；盘中（开盘到收盘）INTC +3.92 / SMCI +6.09 / SNDK +3.19 / MU +2.40 / AMD +2.15，量比 1.1–2.0x；cm365 INTC +3.58 / SMCI +2.74 / AMD +1.38 / SNDK +1.18 / MU +0.82；同日 SPY 开盘到收盘 −0.07%、量 0.84x，指数的涨是跳出来的
Test: 09.24 前 SMH 收回 09.16 的 545.56 以下且芯片 cm365 回落到 09.16 水平 ⇒ 一天反弹，收回。cm365 只引 15:45 主枪，两段只引跳空表 EOD

09.24 Settled
成立结清：收回要两条同时满足，第一条就没满足。SMH 09-17 起收盘 560.61 / 573.00 / 596.03 / 607.46 / 601.41 / 600.52，从没回到 09-16 的 545.56 以下；芯片 cm365 09-24 全在 09-16 之上：INTC 60.80→66.71、AMD 54.63→56.45、MU 57.59→60.34、SMCI 75.06→77.77、SNDK 70.48→71.96、SMH 37.44→38.71。回来的钱没走，一年期保险也没退
Result: 成立

09.11One supply chain: memory buyers up ten percent, memory sellers down threeAlso: DELL, HPE, SNDK, STX, WDC, ORCLhalf

Settlement
half

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

09.11 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
同一条供应链买内存的涨一成、卖内存的跌三个点，短缺的价没落在卖方头上（DELL +11.98 / 2.43x、HPE +12.44、SMCI +7.28 / 1.73x 对 SNDK −3.50、STX −3.73、WDC −2.98）；回本时间表拿得出来的分两种：能借到钱的涨（戴尔发债超额认购），借钱比收钱快的被交货（ORCL 开 +7.51 高 165.99 收 150.28 −1.74 / 1.41x / 区间位 3%）
Test: 下周 SNDK/MU 反弹而 DELL 回吐一半 ⇒ 今日两头为戴尔三条消息（RBC 首评/发债超额/进标普 100），收回；ORCL 收复 159.59 ⇒ 消息日换手非交货，收回。只引官方日线收盘与跳空表量比

09.18 Settled
一半：SNDK 09-16 1519.97→09-18 1791.82、MU 926.55→1015.80 反弹成立，DELL 563.29→568.06 未回吐 ⇒ 收回条件只成立一半；闪迪 140 亿回购日打断了「卖内存的跌」那句
Result: 一半

Cases for every name are in Chapter III of the options page. The ledger is append-only; a revision is a new row.