Coinbase (COIN)

Is protection on Coinbase cheap or dear today, where has the money been placed, how did the past month play out, and how did the judgments we filed on Coinbase settle? Updated after every close, with right and wrong judgments alike left on the record.

Data date 10.07 · close 181.56 (—) · −54.85% from the 52-week high

Where it stands today

One-year IV percentile47 / 100

Where one-month protection (30-day implied volatility) sits within its past-year range, 0 the cheapest and 100 the dearest. Protection on Coinbase is now in the middle of the past year.

30-day / one-year implied vol (%)61.86 / 64.64

The one-year sits 2.78 points above the 30-day, the usual shape: a longer policy covers more.

Expected move this week±4.0% ±7.4

Centred on the previous close of 185.74, option prices imply 178.34 to 193.14 at this week's expiry. A close outside it at expiry means the option sellers lose.

Put ÷ call (volume / open interest)0.4 / 0.55

Calls outtraded puts. It counts contracts, not direction: a put buyer may be insuring shares they own.

Levels from high to low, with distance from the close:

Call wall	200	+10.16%	The strike with the most call open interest: an upside target someone has already made a down payment on.
Expected move, high	193.14	+6.38%	Centred on the previous close: the implied top at this week's expiry.
Close	181.56
Put wall	180	−0.86%	The strike with the most put open interest: protection someone already paid for.
Expected move, low	178.34	−1.78%	Centred on the previous close: the implied bottom at this week's expiry.
Flip level	176.69	−2.68%	Above it, dealer hedging damps moves; below it, hedging amplifies them.

Data date 10.07. Updated once after each trading day's close; spot is the official close.

The last 30 trading days

Close, flip level, put wall and call wall, day by day: which side of the walls price is on, and whether the walls moved.

One-year and 30-day implied vol, day by day. The short line jumping while the long line holds means only the near-term event is being repriced; the long line rising too means the whole story is.

Shown: the last 30 trading days. Earlier records are in Chapter V (walls) and Chapter VII (implied vol) of the options page.

III

Today's big prints

Today Coinbase calls traded $2.2M in premium and puts $870K. Traded, not bought: we cannot see who bought and who sold.

No Coinbase contract made today's leaderboard.

Data date only. The board for every name is in Chapter IV of the options page.

Valuation and profitability

Forward P/E

64.7

P/S

8.0

P/B

3.7

ROE

-7.8%

Gross margin

85.8%

Net margin

-16.3%

The latest P/E (2026.03.31) is 63.5, the 93rd percentile of 14 readings since 2021 (0 is the cheapest in that history, 100 the dearest; past readings are taken at quarter-ends). Coinbase is compared only with its own past.

At the latest quarter-end: ROE -6.9% (2026.06.30).

As of 2026.10.03, updated weekly. Full profit, return, valuation and dividend charts are in the Financials stock view.

Every case we filed on it

Each judgment is written down with its test before the fact, settled by that test, and left standing when wrong. These are all the cases that name Coinbase, none removed. Open one for the original filing.

2cases since 08.19

2settled

0open

09.18The three crypto stocks rose a tenth and their insurance got dearer at the same timeAlso: MSTR, HOODundetermined

Settlement
undetermined

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

09.18 Filed (confidence: 并列)
加密三只涨一成保险也涨＝追的人在买保护，不是空头回补：MSTR +16.38 / COIN +11.65 / HOOD +9.11，cm30 +3.72 / +3.72 / +3.24（42 只里最高三只）；MSTR 10.16 155C 5.2x 对 105P/90P/80P 成串，COIN 10.16 50P 61x；09.25 MSTR 看涨六档约 $107M
Test: 09-21 结算 MSTR 09.25 六档看涨留存 <50% 且 cm30 回落到 09-17 的 63.98 以下 ⇒ 三巫日过路钱＋空头回补，收回

09.23 Settled

Result: 无法判定（核心输入错过取数日）

08.1908-19 was not a risk-off day: the four hardest-hit names all traded lighter than usual , so the decline came from absent buyers rather than selling pr…Also: SPY, QQQ, MSTR, AVGO, INTC, AMD, NVDARight — neither falsifying condition triggered

Settlement
Right — neither falsifying condition triggered. First: "if 08-20 brings a comparable decline on 1.5x or more volume, the no-sellers half fails." On 08-20 the four hardest-hit names printed AVGO +0.43%, RDDT -0.92%, INTC -0.72% and AMD +0.65% — none came close to the 3.71% to 4.61% declines of 08-19, so the premise never appeared and that half stands. Second: "if the high-beta group gives it all back, the long-end-and-weak-dollar half fails." MSTR rose 7.81%, COIN 7.58%, CVNA 1.53% and MARA 15.54%, while HOOD slipped 0.70% — four of five kept rising, which is not a full give-back, so that half stands as well.

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

08.19 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
08-19 不是避险日：跌得最狠的四只全部缩量（0.68~0.94倍），下跌来自买盘缺席而非卖压；当天真正的定价事件是财政部扩大长债回购，不是 FOMC 纪要
Test: 次日两条各自可推翻：①若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能，则「没人卖」这半不成立；②若高贝塔（MSTR/COIN/CVNA/MARA/HOOD）次日全数回吐，则「长端下行与美元走弱驱动」这半不成立。只引每日跳空.csv 的 chg_pct 与本线量能倍数（当日量÷前20日均量）

08.26 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
08-19 不是避险日：跌得最狠的四只全部缩量（0.68~0.94倍），下跌来自买盘缺席而非卖压；当天真正的定价事件是财政部扩大长债回购，不是 FOMC 纪要——终审
Test: 次日两条各自可推翻：①若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能，则「没人卖」这半不成立；②若高贝塔（MSTR/COIN/CVNA/MARA/HOOD）次日全数回吐，则「长端下行与美元走弱驱动」这半不成立。只引每日跳空.csv 的 chg_pct 与本线量能倍数（当日量÷前20日均量）
Result: 对(两条推翻条件均未触发)。①「若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能则『没人卖』半不成立」——08-19 跌最狠四只在 08-20 的表现为 AVGO +0.43%、RDDT -0.92%、INTC -0.72%、AMD +0.65%，无一只出现同等跌幅(08-19 为 -3.71~-4.61%)，前提未出现 ⇒ 该半未被推翻。②「若高贝塔全数回吐则『长端下行与美元走弱驱动』半不成立」——MSTR +7.81%、COIN +7.58%、CVNA +1.53%、MARA +15.54%、HOOD -0.70%，五只中四只继续上涨、仅 HOOD 微跌 ⇒ 非「全数回吐」，该半亦未被推翻。

Cases for every name are in Chapter III of the options page. The ledger is append-only; a revision is a new row.