SK hynix (SKHY)

Is protection on SK hynix cheap or dear today, where has the money been placed, how did the past month play out, and how did the judgments we filed on SK hynix settle? Updated after every close, with right and wrong judgments alike left on the record.

Data date 10.07 · close 181.1 (—) · −9.39% from the 52-week high

Where it stands today

One-year IV percentile0 / 100

Where one-month protection (30-day implied volatility) sits within its past-year range, 0 the cheapest and 100 the dearest. Protection on SK hynix is now in the cheapest stretch of the past year.

30-day / one-year implied vol (%)56.14 / 55.29

The two are about level: nothing near-term is being priced on its own.

Expected move this week±3.5% ±6.44

Centred on the previous close of 182.56, option prices imply 176.12 to 189 at this week's expiry. A close outside it at expiry means the option sellers lose.

Put ÷ call (volume / open interest)0.86 / 1

Calls outtraded puts. It counts contracts, not direction: a put buyer may be insuring shares they own.

Levels from high to low, with distance from the close:

Call wall	210	+15.96%	The strike with the most call open interest: an upside target someone has already made a down payment on.
Expected move, high	189	+4.36%	Centred on the previous close: the implied top at this week's expiry.
Flip level	183.09	+1.10%	Above it, dealer hedging damps moves; below it, hedging amplifies them.
Close	181.1
Expected move, low	176.12	−2.75%	Centred on the previous close: the implied bottom at this week's expiry.
Put wall	175	−3.37%	The strike with the most put open interest: protection someone already paid for.

Data date 10.07. Updated once after each trading day's close; spot is the official close.

The last 30 trading days

Close, flip level, put wall and call wall, day by day: which side of the walls price is on, and whether the walls moved.

One-year and 30-day implied vol, day by day. The short line jumping while the long line holds means only the near-term event is being repriced; the long line rising too means the whole story is.

Shown: the last 30 trading days. Earlier records are in Chapter V (walls) and Chapter VII (implied vol) of the options page.

III

Today's big prints

Today SK hynix calls traded $5.7M in premium and puts $1.4M. Traded, not bought: we cannot see who bought and who sold.

No SK hynix contract made today's leaderboard.

Data date only. The board for every name is in Chapter IV of the options page.

Every case we filed on it

Each judgment is written down with its test before the fact, settled by that test, and left standing when wrong. These are all the cases that name SK hynix, none removed. Open one for the original filing.

4cases since 09.09

3settled

0open

10.06The SK Hynix Dec 18 2026 210C and 140C trades were a full position closeWithdrawn

Settlement
Withdrawn

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

10.06 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
SK 海力士 2026-12-18 210C／140C 是整批平仓：10-06 两档成交 36498／12081 张，原持仓 37014／12487 张，股价收 182.56、跌 6.39%
Test: 10-07 10:30 ET 后晨结算持仓中，210C <18765（较 37014 减少至少 10-06 成交 36498 的一半）⇒ 成立；否则收回

10.07 Settled
收回：判据为 10-07 晨读 210C 结算持仓 <18765（较 37014 减少至少 10-06 成交 36498 的一半）才成立；10-07 晨读（即 10-06 结算）210C 持仓 36635，只少 379 张，是成交的 1.0%；140C 成交 12081 张，持仓 12487→12488 几乎不动。照实记：两档成交都接近原持仓的全部，持仓却没减，说明这批仓位换了手，有人平仓也有人等量接盘，整批平仓的读法站不住。错在把成交接近原持仓直接读成离场，没考虑同等数量的接盘
Result: 收回

09.23Memory fell on thin volume with cheaper insuranceAlso: SNDK, MURight, it stands on its terms

Settlement
Right, it stands on its terms: the call would be withdrawn if SanDisk or Micron kept falling on heavy volume (more than 1.3 times the prior day) before Micron earnings on Sep 30. Over the five sessions from Sep 24 to Sep 30, the down days were SanDisk −3.47% on Sep 24 (1.05x) and −3.65% on Sep 28 (0.90x), and Micron −2.61% on Sep 28 (1.05x), none on heavy volume; the one heavy day was Micron at 1.48x on Sep 30, when it closed flat (0.00%), not a further fall. SanDisk lost another 4.2% over the stretch, but always on light volume: buyers kept waiting and nobody dumped

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

09.23 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
存储缩量跌、保险在退，是买家在等，不是有人在卖：闪迪量 0.59 倍、海力士 0.74、美光 0.73，一个月保险折钱分别便宜约 9%、8%、5%
Test: 09-30 美光财报前，闪迪或美光放量（>1.3 倍）续跌 ⇒ 收回

10.01 Settled
对，按判据成立：收回条件是 09-30 美光财报前，闪迪或美光放量（成交超过前一天 1.3 倍）继续下跌。09-24 到 09-30 五个交易日里，下跌的日子是闪迪 09-24 −3.47%（量比 1.05）、09-28 −3.65%（0.90），美光 09-28 −2.61%（1.05），都没放量；唯一放量的一天是美光 09-30 量比 1.48，那天收平（0.00%），不算续跌。这一周闪迪又跌了 4.2%，跌是跌了，但一直缩量：买家一直在等，没有人放量砸
Result: 对

09.22The memory rally is buyers attaching their own protection, not a squeeze.Also: SNDK, MUWithdrawn by its test

Settlement
Withdrawn by its test: the call was to be withdrawn if, within one trading day after the Micron report on September 30, SanDisk and Micron both kept rising and their one-month insurance both fell below the September 21 levels of 70.86 and 60.80. On October 1 Micron closed at 1097.39 (up 3.03%) and SanDisk at 1787.69 (up 2.75%), and at the 15:45 read one-month insurance fell from 59.11 to 52.61 for Micron and from 75.18 to 69.60 for SanDisk, meeting every condition. Note that this drop in insurance mostly reflects the Micron earnings risk rolling off for the whole memory group, and short interest was only about a day of volume (FINRA September 15 settlement: Micron 1.1 days, SanDisk 1.0), so the withdrawal exposes the test itself: around earnings, protection prices cannot tell who is buying

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

09.22 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
存储今天的涨是买进去的人自己在配保护，不是空头回补：闪迪涨 6.82% 而 cm30 70.86→75.29 是全表第一，美光涨 5.00% 而 cm30 60.80→63.63；折成钱给 100 股买一个月保护分别贵约 13.5% 与 9.9%
Test: 09-30 美光财报后一个交易日内，闪迪与美光股价续涨而 cm30 双双回落到 09-21 的 70.86 与 60.80 以下 ⇒ 是空头回补，收回。cm30 只引 15:45 主枪

10.01 Settled
收回，按判据收回：判据是美光 09-30 财报后一个交易日内，闪迪与美光股价续涨、且一个月保护价双双回落到 09-21 的 70.86 与 60.80 以下，就收回。10-01 美光收 1097.39（涨 3.03%）、闪迪收 1787.69（涨 2.75%），15:45 那一轮美光一个月保护价 59.11→52.61、闪迪 75.18→69.60，条件全部满足。需要说明：保护价这一降，主要是美光财报风险出了窗口、整个存储板块一起降，做空存量也只够一天成交（FINRA 09-15 结算：美光 1.1 天、闪迪 1.0 天），这次收回暴露的是判据本身，财报前后的保护价分辨不了是谁在买
Result: 收回

09.09SK Hynix had two prices today: the Korean line closed +3.51% while the US ADR closed +7.05%.Withdrawn

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

09.09 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
海力士今天有两个价格：本体在韩国收 +3.51%，美国存托凭证 SKHY 收 +7.05%。美股时段又给存储链加了约 3.5 个点，而韩国那边还没定价
Test: 若 000660.KS 在 09.10 韩国开盘涨幅不足 1.5%（不到差额的一半），则「美股领先本体」不成立、本读法收回。唯一来源＝夜间采样器数据_夜间亚洲盘_0909.csv 与次日行情尺官方收盘，🚫 不与 SK.US 杠杆 ETF 混判

09.09 Withdrawn
撤回 09-09 的立案：海力士 ADR 与本体的价差不作为跟踪项
Result: 撤案（Klay 09-09 定：不用盯这个）

Cases for every name are in Chapter III of the options page. The ledger is append-only; a revision is a new row.