Tesla (TSLA)

Is protection on Tesla cheap or dear today, where has the money been placed, how did the past month play out, and how did the judgments we filed on Tesla settle? Updated after every close, with right and wrong judgments alike left on the record.

Data date 10.07 · close 377.2 (—) · −24.38% from the 52-week high

Where it stands today

One-year IV percentile29 / 100

Where one-month protection (30-day implied volatility) sits within its past-year range, 0 the cheapest and 100 the dearest. Protection on Tesla is now in the cheaper part of the past year.

30-day / one-year implied vol (%)43.84 / 44.64

The two are about level: nothing near-term is being priced on its own.

Expected move this week±2.3% ±8.62

Centred on the previous close of 380.68, option prices imply 372.06 to 389.3 at this week's expiry. A close outside it at expiry means the option sellers lose.

Put ÷ call (volume / open interest)0.56 / 1.16

Calls outtraded puts. It counts contracts, not direction: a put buyer may be insuring shares they own.

Levels from high to low, with distance from the close:

Call wall	400	+6.04%	The strike with the most call open interest: an upside target someone has already made a down payment on.
Expected move, high	389.3	+3.21%	Centred on the previous close: the implied top at this week's expiry.
Put wall	380	+0.74%	The strike with the most put open interest: protection someone already paid for.
Close	377.2
Expected move, low	372.06	−1.36%	Centred on the previous close: the implied bottom at this week's expiry.
Flip level	364.62	−3.34%	Above it, dealer hedging damps moves; below it, hedging amplifies them.

Data date 10.07. Updated once after each trading day's close; spot is the official close.

The last 30 trading days

Close, flip level, put wall and call wall, day by day: which side of the walls price is on, and whether the walls moved.

One-year and 30-day implied vol, day by day. The short line jumping while the long line holds means only the near-term event is being repriced; the long line rising too means the whole story is.

Shown: the last 30 trading days. Earlier records are in Chapter V (walls) and Chapter VII (implied vol) of the options page.

III

Today's big prints

No Tesla contract made today's leaderboard.

Data date only. The board for every name is in Chapter IV of the options page.

Valuation and profitability

P/E (TTM)

346.3

Forward P/E

171.4

P/S

14.1

P/B

16.8

ROE

4.7%

Gross margin

18.9%

Net margin

3.7%

The latest P/E (2026.10.02) is 343.1, the 73rd percentile of 26 readings since 2020 (0 is the cheapest in that history, 100 the dearest; past readings are taken at quarter-ends). Tesla is compared only with its own past.

At the latest quarter-end: ROE 4.6% (2026.06.30), ROIC 4.4% (2026.06.30).

As of 2026.10.03, updated weekly. Full profit, return, valuation and dividend charts are in the Tech stock view.

Every case we filed on it

Each judgment is written down with its test before the fact, settled by that test, and left standing when wrong. These are all the cases that name Tesla, none removed. Open one for the original filing.

9cases since 07.22

9settled

0open

09.18Witching-day bets on a fall lostAlso: SPY, SPCX, MSTR, SNDKundetermined

Settlement
undetermined