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Alphabet-A (GOOGL)

Is protection on Alphabet-A cheap or dear today, where has the money been placed, how did the past month play out, and how did the judgments we filed on Alphabet-A settle? Updated after every close, with right and wrong judgments alike left on the record.

Data date 10.07 · close 348.12 (—) · −14.75% from the 52-week high

Where it stands today

One-year IV percentile69 / 100

Where one-month protection (30-day implied volatility) sits within its past-year range, 0 the cheapest and 100 the dearest. Protection on Alphabet-A is now in the pricier part of the past year.

30-day / one-year implied vol (%)37.95 / 35.24

The 30-day sits 2.71 points above the one-year: something near-term is being priced on its own.

Expected move this week±1.9% ±6.58

Centred on the previous close of 347.68, option prices imply 341.1 to 354.26 at this week's expiry. A close outside it at expiry means the option sellers lose.

Put ÷ call (volume / open interest)0.28 / 0.44

Calls outtraded puts. It counts contracts, not direction: a put buyer may be insuring shares they own.

Levels from high to low, with distance from the close:

Expected move, high	354.26	+1.76%	Centred on the previous close: the implied top at this week's expiry.
Call wall	350	+0.54%	The strike with the most call open interest: an upside target someone has already made a down payment on.
Close	348.12
Expected move, low	341.1	−2.02%	Centred on the previous close: the implied bottom at this week's expiry.
Put wall	340	−2.33%	The strike with the most put open interest: protection someone already paid for.
Flip level	337.4	−3.08%	Above it, dealer hedging damps moves; below it, hedging amplifies them.

Data date 10.07. Updated once after each trading day's close; spot is the official close.

The last 30 trading days

Close, flip level, put wall and call wall, day by day: which side of the walls price is on, and whether the walls moved.

One-year and 30-day implied vol, day by day. The short line jumping while the long line holds means only the near-term event is being repriced; the long line rising too means the whole story is.

Shown: the last 30 trading days. Earlier records are in Chapter V (walls) and Chapter VII (implied vol) of the options page.

III

Today's big prints

No Alphabet-A contract made today's leaderboard.

Data date only. The board for every name is in Chapter IV of the options page.

Valuation and profitability

P/E (TTM)

17.2

Forward P/E

22.8

P/S

9.4

P/B

6.7

ROE

48.7%

Gross margin

60.9%

Net margin

54.8%

Dividend yield

0.26%

The latest P/E (2026.10.02) is 17.2, the 2nd percentile of 84 readings since 2005 (0 is the cheapest in that history, 100 the dearest; past readings are taken at quarter-ends). Alphabet-A is compared only with its own past.

At the latest quarter-end: ROE 50.8% (2026.06.30), ROIC 23.8% (2026.06.30).

As of 2026.10.03, updated weekly. Full profit, return, valuation and dividend charts are in the Tech stock view.

Every case we filed on it

Each judgment is written down with its test before the fact, settled by that test, and left standing when wrong. These are all the cases that name Alphabet-A, none removed. Open one for the original filing.

5cases since 07.22

3settled

2open

09.18After the second and third hikes, what gets repriced is the farthest cash flow in the expensive group , not the cheap group .Also: SNDK, MSTR, INTC, NVDA, GSOpen · est. 11.30

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

09.18 Filed (confidence: 中)
第二三次加息之后被重新定价的是贵的那组里现金流最远的，不是便宜的那组。贵组＝SNDK PB 16.67（一年 84% 时间便宜）/ MSTR PB 1.72（一年 89%）/ INTC PB 6.20（五年 99.8%）；便宜组＝NVDA PE 27.77（五年 99% 时间贵）/ GOOGL PE 17.51（五年 95%）/ GS PE 13.73（三年九成），均 09-18 收盘
Test: 10-28 之后一个月（到 11-30）贵组三只等权涨幅跑赢便宜组三只等权 ⇒ 收回；跑输或持平 ⇒ 成立。基准＝09-18 收盘

09.09Alphabet November 20 370 and 440 calls are one bull call spread, not two independent betsOpen · est. 11.20

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

09.09 Filed (confidence: More likely)
谷歌 11-20 的 370C 与 440C 是一个买 370 卖 440 的看涨价差，不是两笔独立看涨：两腿净留仓 27,509 对 27,507 只差 2 张，而成交量差了 588 张。卖掉 440 那条腿，等于自己承认不认为它能涨三成
Test: 到 11.20 之前，若两腿持仓同步下降相近数量＝组合被平掉、本读法不再适用；若只有 440C 单边下降＝卖出腿被买回，读法改成上限被解除。只引每日UOA近月异常.csv 与行情尺期权接口的 OI，🚫 不与盘中成交量混判

07.23Single-expiry implied volatility in earnings week — around 100% before the open — will crush hard once the session beginsAlso: GOOG, TSLARight

Settlement
Right.

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

07.23 Filed (confidence: More likely)
财报周单到期 IV(盘前~100%)开盘后必大幅 crush
Test: EOD 复读 0724 单到期 IV vs 盘前 100.1/97.3/100.4

07.23 Settled
财报周单到期IV开盘后必大幅crush
Result: 对

07.22Earnings-night expected-move rankingAlso: TSLAWrong

Settlement
Wrong.

Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese

07.22 Filed (confidence: More likely)
财报夜 EM 座次:GOOGL(±5.2%)会比 TSLA(±5.0%)动得大
Test: 次日实际波动幅度比较

07.23 Settled
EM 座次押反
Result: 错

07.22Neither of the two earnings names breaks its own 07-24 expected-move bandAlso: TSLAWrong

Settlement
Wrong.