Options / Tickers / JPM
JPMorgan (JPM)
Is protection on JPMorgan cheap or dear today, how did the past month play out, and how did the judgments we filed on JPMorgan settle? Updated after every close, with right and wrong judgments alike left on the record.
Data date 10.07
Where it stands today
The 30-day sits 1.06 points above the one-year: something near-term is being priced on its own.
Data date 10.07. Implied vols are read once before each close.
The last 30 trading days
One-year and 30-day implied vol, day by day. The short line jumping while the long line holds means only the near-term event is being repriced; the long line rising too means the whole story is.
Shown: the last 30 trading days. Earlier records are in Chapter VII of the options page.
Valuation and profitability
The latest P/E (2026.10.02) is 14.2, the 64th percentile of 118 readings since 1995 (0 is the cheapest in that history, 100 the dearest; past readings are taken at quarter-ends). JPMorgan is compared only with its own past.
At the latest quarter-end: ROE 17.8% (2026.06.30).
As of 2026.10.03, updated weekly. Full profit, return, valuation and dividend charts are in the Financials stock view.
Every case we filed on it
Each judgment is written down with its test before the fact, settled by that test, and left standing when wrong. These are all the cases that name JPMorgan, none removed. Open one for the original filing.
09.23This is a real-rate shock that has not reached credit.Also: TLT, HYG, LQD, GSRight, it stands on its terms, but the bank half missed by 0
Right, it stands on its terms, but the bank half missed by 0.03: the call would be withdrawn if, before the Sep 30 close, the median AI-issuer bond spread widened 15 basis points or more from 58.6 on Sep 23 (to 73.6), or the six-bank average one-month protection price rose 2 points or more from 29.98 (to 31.98). The spread median ran 55.7, 59.3, 64.2, 60.35 and 65.25, peaking on Sep 30 only 6.65 basis points wider; the bank average ran 30.56, 30.83, 31.55, 31.95 and 30.57, peaking on Sep 29 just 0.03 below the line before easing on Sep 30. Both moved toward the line without reaching it: Oracle spread 160.3 to 175.8, Intel 70.3 to 87.4, Nvidia 23.2 to 45.1. The shock is seeping into credit, but on its terms it has not reached it
这次是真实利率冲击，还没传到信用：十年期涨约 15bp 里真实利率约 12.5bp、通胀预期约 2bp（外部拆解）；Meta、甲骨文、亚马逊、谷歌公司债对国债利差基本没动（CoreWeave +31bp 例外），银行六家 cm30 均值 +0.04
Test: 09-30 收盘前，AI 发行人信用替代表利差中位数较 09-23 扩大 ≥15bp，或银行六家 cm30 均值较 09-23（29.98）升 ≥2 点 ⇒ 收回
对，按判据成立，但银行那半只差 0.03：收回条件是 09-30 收盘前，AI 发行人公司债利差中位数比 09-23 的 58.6 个基点扩大 15 个基点以上（到 73.6），或银行六家一个月保护价均值比 09-23 的 29.98 升 2 点以上（到 31.98），任一条触发就收回。利差中位数逐日是 55.7、59.3、64.2、60.35、65.25，最高在 09-30，比立案日只扩大 6.65 个基点；银行六家均值逐日是 30.56、30.83、31.55、31.95、30.57，最高在 09-29，离收回线 31.98 只差 0.03，09-30 回落。两条都在往收回线走，只是没走到：甲骨文利差 160.3→175.8、英特尔 70.3→87.4、英伟达 23.2→45.1，冲击在往信用渗，按判据还算没传到
Result: 对
09.18Stocks price the hike as an event and bonds as three or four moreAlso: GS, XLF, BAC, C, WFCWithdrawn
Withdrawn: Goldman one-year implied vol fell from 36.15 to 33.52, through the 34.14 line; the other layers got dearer while bank insurance stayed flat.
股票把加息定价成一次事件，债市按三四次算，中间那道缝落在银行：2y 4.7433% 一周 +11.79bp、掉期 10 月 15bp / 12 月累计 35bp / 明年中峰值约 4.7%；GS cm365 一周 +4.51 全表第一、收 942 跌破 200 日线 948.67、一周 −8.47%；XLF 三档两年期看跌 72222 张留 99%；09-18 又有人买 XLF 12.18 57–59C 35766 张
Test: 09.30 前 GS cm365 回落到 09-11 的 34.14 以下，或 XLF 收回 57 ⇒ 银行只是决议日的一次性重定价，收回。cm365 只引 15:45 主枪
Result: 收回
09.17Short bank insurance was gone while long insurance was boughtAlso: XLF, GS, BAC, C, WFC, KREconfirmed
confirmed
银行短的保险退了，长的有人买：五家 cm30 全退回 09.15 以下（GS −3.58 / KRE −3.28 / C −3.01 / JPM −2.03 / BAC −1.66 / WFC −1.40）；XLF 近月 P 66120 / C 9481（6.97x）；长天期 2027-01 50P 25214（OI 65721）/ 2027-12 50P 25008（OI 7972）/ 2028-12 45P 22000（OI 13603），行权价低 10.5%–19.5%，三档各两万多张像一个买家铺梯子；股价 XLF −0.09 / KRE 0.00 在全市场 +1.13% 的日子没跟
Test: 09-18 晨 行情尺 核三档 OI 未增 ⇒ 当天进出，收回；09.24 前 XLF 收回 57 上方 ⇒ 股价半句收回。🔴 OI 最晚取数日 09-18
成立结清：股价半句未触发收回，XLF 09-17 起收盘 55.88 / 55.86 / 55.90 / 54.80 / 54.54 / 54.53，最高 55.93（09-16）以下，从没回到 57；长的半句 09-18 晨已成立（三档 OI 65721→90528 / 7972→32972 / 13603→35103，留 99%）。全案成立：银行短的保险退了、长的有人买，金融板块股价也没跟上
Result: 成立
09.16On hike day the repricing hit banks, and the reason is the curveAlso: GS, WFC, BAC, C, KREconfirmed
confirmed
加息日被重新定价的是银行，理由在曲线：GS −3.96 / WFC −2.98 / BAC −2.72 / C −2.36 / KRE −1.77 / JPM −1.01；两年期 4.738% 高点（2024-07 以来最高）、十年期 4.994、三十年 5.338、2s10s 27.5bp 6/30 以来最平；Δcm30 GS +2.56 / KRE +1.89 / BAC +1.56 / C +1.16 / JPM +1.03 / WFC +0.98 第三天全涨。银行股价跌、保费涨＝有人在卖；半导体股价涨、保费也涨＝边买边保
Test: 09.18 前银行五只 cm30 回落到 09-15 水平以下（GS <36.33 / BAC <26.35 / C <32.76 / JPM <26.13 / WFC <29.75）⇒ 只是决议日一天行情，收回。只引 15:45 主枪
保费半句收回：15:45 主枪 cm30 GS 35.31 / BAC 26.25 / C 30.91 / JPM 25.13 / WFC 29.33，五只全回落到 09-15 以下，三天的加价是决议日对冲。股价半句保留：全市场 +1.13% 而 XLF −0.09 / KRE 0.00 / JPM +0.11 / C −0.18 / WFC −0.18（GS +1.43）
Test: 股价半句 09-18 再看一天
Result: 半收回
股价半句成立结清：五家一周 GS −8.47 / BAC −7.91 / C −5.08 / WFC −4.62 / JPM −1.84，GS 09-18 收 942.00 跌破 200 日线 948.67（前复权）；保费半句 09-17 已收回
Result: 成立
09.14Protection sellers treated the bank guidance as new information and did not treat the letter as new informationAlso: GS, WFC, BAC, C, MU, SNDK, INTC, AMD, AVGO, NVDA, TSMconfirmed
confirmed
卖保护的人把银行的指引当成了新信息，没把那封信当成新信息：cm30 单日变化 GS +3.51 / WFC +2.99 / JPM +2.74 / BAC +2.39 / C +2.19 对 MU −0.04 / AMD +0.58 / AVGO +1.02 / NVDA +1.87 / TSM +2.01；cm365 MU 61.81→59.71（−2.10）、SNDK −1.61、INTC −1.01。起因＝美国银行 CEO 巴克莱会议：三季度交易收入持平、投行费用降一成
Test: 09.16 决议后 MU cm30 抬过 62 而股价不反弹 ⇒ 保护市场补定价了那封信，收回。只引 每日恒定期限IV.csv 15:45 主枪
成立结清：MU cm30 09-17 57.86 <62（09-16 58.43）；银行三天涨的保费 09-17 一天退光，改价方向对了、持久性没有
Result: 成立
Cases for every name are in Chapter III of the options page. The ledger is append-only; a revision is a new row.
Other names
Decades of JPMorgan price history and drawdowns are in The Archive · Financials.
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AMD
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MU
SNDK
MRVL
QCOM
SKHY
SMCI
DELL
ORCL
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CRWV
NBIS
COIN
HOOD
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SOFI
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MC.PA
RMS.PA· The one-year percentile and the 30-day and one-year implied vols come from two different sources; each is compared only with its own past, and the two are never spliced together.
· The 30-day and one-year vols are constant-maturity: interpolated between the two nearest expiries to exactly 30 and 365 days, read once before each close.
· A big-print row is one contract's full-day total, not a single trade. Without per-trade timestamps or aggressor side we state premium traded only.
· Every reading is cross-checked against two independent sources and updated once after the close. Raw data is not provided on this site.
· Valuation ratios, margins and returns are computed from the company's filed quarterly and annual reports, on the same basis as the sector stock view, and updated weekly.
· The P/E percentile compares the company only with its own quarter-end record, never with other companies, and is not spliced with the current readings above.
· Data and information only; not investment advice; no buy or sell recommendations.
Today's read on this name is in the subscriber email; past issues go public the next day.