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TICKER PAGE · MU
Micron Technology (MU)
Is protection on Micron Technology cheap or dear today, where has the money been placed, how did the past month play out, and how did the judgments we filed on Micron Technology settle? Updated after every close, with right and wrong judgments alike left on the record.
Data date 10.07 · close 1022.3 (—) · −18.54% from the 52-week high
I
Where it stands today
One-year IV percentile0 / 100
Where one-month protection (30-day implied volatility) sits within its past-year range, 0 the cheapest and 100 the dearest. Protection on Micron Technology is now in the cheapest stretch of the past year.
30-day / one-year implied vol (%)47.07 / 50.5
The one-year sits 3.43 points above the 30-day, the usual shape: a longer policy covers more.
Expected move this week±2.9% ±30.03
Centred on the previous close of 1045.56, option prices imply 1015.53 to 1075.59 at this week's expiry. A close outside it at expiry means the option sellers lose.
Put ÷ call (volume / open interest)0.51 / 1.52
Calls outtraded puts. It counts contracts, not direction: a put buyer may be insuring shares they own.
Levels from high to low, with distance from the close:
| Call wall | 1100 | +7.60% | The strike with the most call open interest: an upside target someone has already made a down payment on. |
| Expected move, high | 1075.59 | +5.21% | Centred on the previous close: the implied top at this week's expiry. |
| Flip level | 1033.29 | +1.08% | Above it, dealer hedging damps moves; below it, hedging amplifies them. |
| Close | 1022.3 | ||
| Expected move, low | 1015.53 | −0.66% | Centred on the previous close: the implied bottom at this week's expiry. |
| Put wall | 1000 | −2.18% | The strike with the most put open interest: protection someone already paid for. |
Data date 10.07. Updated once after each trading day's close; spot is the official close.
II
The last 30 trading days
Close, flip level, put wall and call wall, day by day: which side of the walls price is on, and whether the walls moved.
One-year and 30-day implied vol, day by day. The short line jumping while the long line holds means only the near-term event is being repriced; the long line rising too means the whole story is.
Shown: the last 30 trading days. Earlier records are in Chapter V (walls) and Chapter VII (implied vol) of the options page.
III
Today's big prints
Today Micron Technology calls traded $125.2M in premium and puts $1.7M. Traded, not bought: we cannot see who bought and who sold.
| Expiry | Strike | Type | Volume | OI | Premium traded | Attribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.16 | 1100 | Call | 13815 | 9765 | $36.8M | Leans new: volume exceeds existing OI |
| 10.16 | 1050 | Call | 3494 | 4208 | $18.6M | Inconclusive: volume below OI, may be churn |
| 10.16 | 1070 | Call | 3244 | 1559 | $13.5M | Likely new: volume at least 2x existing OI |
| 10.16 | 1080 | Call | 2110 | 2434 | $7.5M | Inconclusive: volume below OI, may be churn |
| 10.16 | 1150 | Call | 6261 | 10189 | $7.2M | Inconclusive: volume below OI, may be churn |
| 10.16 | 1000 | Call | 765 | 10221 | $7.1M | Inconclusive: volume below OI, may be churn |
| 10.16 | 1060 | Call | 1362 | 1226 | $6.4M | Leans new: volume exceeds existing OI |
A-grade rows only, each rechecked. Attribution is arithmetic: volume at least twice OI reads likely new; above OI, leans new; below OI, inconclusive.
Data date only. The board for every name is in Chapter IV of the options page.
IV
Valuation and profitability
P/E (TTM)
14.5
Forward P/E
5.2
P/S
9.1
P/B
12.0
ROE
88.3%
Gross margin
80.7%
Net margin
63.8%
Dividend yield
0.06%
The latest P/E (2026.10.02) is 24.3, the 76th percentile of 59 readings since 2005 (0 is the cheapest in that history, 100 the dearest; past readings are taken at quarter-ends). Micron Technology is compared only with its own past.
At the latest quarter-end: ROE 70.5% (2026.05.31), ROIC 75.6% (2026.05.31).
As of 2026.10.03, updated weekly. Full profit, return, valuation and dividend charts are in the Tech stock view.
V
Every case we filed on it
Each judgment is written down with its test before the fact, settled by that test, and left standing when wrong. These are all the cases that name Micron Technology, none removed. Open one for the original filing.
11cases since 07.23
11settled
0open
09.23Memory fell on thin volume with cheaper insuranceAlso: SNDK, SKHYRight, it stands on its terms
Settlement
Right, it stands on its terms: the call would be withdrawn if SanDisk or Micron kept falling on heavy volume (more than 1.3 times the prior day) before Micron earnings on Sep 30. Over the five sessions from Sep 24 to Sep 30, the down days were SanDisk −3.47% on Sep 24 (1.05x) and −3.65% on Sep 28 (0.90x), and Micron −2.61% on Sep 28 (1.05x), none on heavy volume; the one heavy day was Micron at 1.48x on Sep 30, when it closed flat (0.00%), not a further fall. SanDisk lost another 4.2% over the stretch, but always on light volume: buyers kept waiting and nobody dumped
Right, it stands on its terms: the call would be withdrawn if SanDisk or Micron kept falling on heavy volume (more than 1.3 times the prior day) before Micron earnings on Sep 30. Over the five sessions from Sep 24 to Sep 30, the down days were SanDisk −3.47% on Sep 24 (1.05x) and −3.65% on Sep 28 (0.90x), and Micron −2.61% on Sep 28 (1.05x), none on heavy volume; the one heavy day was Micron at 1.48x on Sep 30, when it closed flat (0.00%), not a further fall. SanDisk lost another 4.2% over the stretch, but always on light volume: buyers kept waiting and nobody dumped
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.23 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
存储缩量跌、保险在退，是买家在等，不是有人在卖：闪迪量 0.59 倍、海力士 0.74、美光 0.73，一个月保险折钱分别便宜约 9%、8%、5%
Test: 09-30 美光财报前，闪迪或美光放量（>1.3 倍）续跌 ⇒ 收回
存储缩量跌、保险在退，是买家在等，不是有人在卖：闪迪量 0.59 倍、海力士 0.74、美光 0.73，一个月保险折钱分别便宜约 9%、8%、5%
Test: 09-30 美光财报前，闪迪或美光放量（>1.3 倍）续跌 ⇒ 收回
10.01 Settled
对，按判据成立：收回条件是 09-30 美光财报前，闪迪或美光放量（成交超过前一天 1.3 倍）继续下跌。09-24 到 09-30 五个交易日里，下跌的日子是闪迪 09-24 −3.47%（量比 1.05）、09-28 −3.65%（0.90），美光 09-28 −2.61%（1.05），都没放量；唯一放量的一天是美光 09-30 量比 1.48，那天收平（0.00%），不算续跌。这一周闪迪又跌了 4.2%，跌是跌了，但一直缩量：买家一直在等，没有人放量砸
Result: 对
对，按判据成立：收回条件是 09-30 美光财报前，闪迪或美光放量（成交超过前一天 1.3 倍）继续下跌。09-24 到 09-30 五个交易日里，下跌的日子是闪迪 09-24 −3.47%（量比 1.05）、09-28 −3.65%（0.90），美光 09-28 −2.61%（1.05），都没放量；唯一放量的一天是美光 09-30 量比 1.48，那天收平（0.00%），不算续跌。这一周闪迪又跌了 4.2%，跌是跌了，但一直缩量：买家一直在等，没有人放量砸
Result: 对
09.22The memory rally is buyers attaching their own protection, not a squeeze.Also: SNDK, SKHYWithdrawn by its test
Settlement
Withdrawn by its test: the call was to be withdrawn if, within one trading day after the Micron report on September 30, SanDisk and Micron both kept rising and their one-month insurance both fell below the September 21 levels of 70.86 and 60.80. On October 1 Micron closed at 1097.39 (up 3.03%) and SanDisk at 1787.69 (up 2.75%), and at the 15:45 read one-month insurance fell from 59.11 to 52.61 for Micron and from 75.18 to 69.60 for SanDisk, meeting every condition. Note that this drop in insurance mostly reflects the Micron earnings risk rolling off for the whole memory group, and short interest was only about a day of volume (FINRA September 15 settlement: Micron 1.1 days, SanDisk 1.0), so the withdrawal exposes the test itself: around earnings, protection prices cannot tell who is buying
Withdrawn by its test: the call was to be withdrawn if, within one trading day after the Micron report on September 30, SanDisk and Micron both kept rising and their one-month insurance both fell below the September 21 levels of 70.86 and 60.80. On October 1 Micron closed at 1097.39 (up 3.03%) and SanDisk at 1787.69 (up 2.75%), and at the 15:45 read one-month insurance fell from 59.11 to 52.61 for Micron and from 75.18 to 69.60 for SanDisk, meeting every condition. Note that this drop in insurance mostly reflects the Micron earnings risk rolling off for the whole memory group, and short interest was only about a day of volume (FINRA September 15 settlement: Micron 1.1 days, SanDisk 1.0), so the withdrawal exposes the test itself: around earnings, protection prices cannot tell who is buying
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.22 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
存储今天的涨是买进去的人自己在配保护，不是空头回补：闪迪涨 6.82% 而 cm30 70.86→75.29 是全表第一，美光涨 5.00% 而 cm30 60.80→63.63；折成钱给 100 股买一个月保护分别贵约 13.5% 与 9.9%
Test: 09-30 美光财报后一个交易日内，闪迪与美光股价续涨而 cm30 双双回落到 09-21 的 70.86 与 60.80 以下 ⇒ 是空头回补，收回。cm30 只引 15:45 主枪
存储今天的涨是买进去的人自己在配保护，不是空头回补：闪迪涨 6.82% 而 cm30 70.86→75.29 是全表第一，美光涨 5.00% 而 cm30 60.80→63.63；折成钱给 100 股买一个月保护分别贵约 13.5% 与 9.9%
Test: 09-30 美光财报后一个交易日内，闪迪与美光股价续涨而 cm30 双双回落到 09-21 的 70.86 与 60.80 以下 ⇒ 是空头回补，收回。cm30 只引 15:45 主枪
10.01 Settled
收回，按判据收回：判据是美光 09-30 财报后一个交易日内，闪迪与美光股价续涨、且一个月保护价双双回落到 09-21 的 70.86 与 60.80 以下，就收回。10-01 美光收 1097.39（涨 3.03%）、闪迪收 1787.69（涨 2.75%），15:45 那一轮美光一个月保护价 59.11→52.61、闪迪 75.18→69.60，条件全部满足。需要说明：保护价这一降，主要是美光财报风险出了窗口、整个存储板块一起降，做空存量也只够一天成交（FINRA 09-15 结算：美光 1.1 天、闪迪 1.0 天），这次收回暴露的是判据本身，财报前后的保护价分辨不了是谁在买
Result: 收回
收回，按判据收回：判据是美光 09-30 财报后一个交易日内，闪迪与美光股价续涨、且一个月保护价双双回落到 09-21 的 70.86 与 60.80 以下，就收回。10-01 美光收 1097.39（涨 3.03%）、闪迪收 1787.69（涨 2.75%），15:45 那一轮美光一个月保护价 59.11→52.61、闪迪 75.18→69.60，条件全部满足。需要说明：保护价这一降，主要是美光财报风险出了窗口、整个存储板块一起降，做空存量也只够一天成交（FINRA 09-15 结算：美光 1.1 天、闪迪 1.0 天），这次收回暴露的是判据本身，财报前后的保护价分辨不了是谁在买
Result: 收回
09.17Withdrawn: the money that left came back.Also: SMH, TLT, INTC, AMD, SNDKwithdrawn
Settlement
withdrawn
withdrawn
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.17 Settled
收回：退出去的钱回来了。收回条件「决议后 SMH 与 TLT 同日领涨」成立：SMH +2.75（板块 ETF 第一）、TLT +1.11（债券 ETF 第一）；回来第一天买的是 INTC intra +3.92 / SMCI +6.09 / SNDK +3.19 / MU +2.40 / AMD +2.15（跳空表 EOD 17:15）
Result: 收回
收回：退出去的钱回来了。收回条件「决议后 SMH 与 TLT 同日领涨」成立：SMH +2.75（板块 ETF 第一）、TLT +1.11（债券 ETF 第一）；回来第一天买的是 INTC intra +3.92 / SMCI +6.09 / SNDK +3.19 / MU +2.40 / AMD +2.15（跳空表 EOD 17:15）
Result: 收回
09.17The money that left came back to chips, and the buyers are insuring a year outAlso: SMH, INTC, SMCI, AMD, SNDKconfirmed
Settlement
confirmed
confirmed
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.17 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
退出去的钱回到了芯片，回来的人在配一年期保险：SMH +2.75 板块第一；盘中（开盘到收盘）INTC +3.92 / SMCI +6.09 / SNDK +3.19 / MU +2.40 / AMD +2.15，量比 1.1–2.0x；cm365 INTC +3.58 / SMCI +2.74 / AMD +1.38 / SNDK +1.18 / MU +0.82；同日 SPY 开盘到收盘 −0.07%、量 0.84x，指数的涨是跳出来的
Test: 09.24 前 SMH 收回 09.16 的 545.56 以下且芯片 cm365 回落到 09.16 水平 ⇒ 一天反弹，收回。cm365 只引 15:45 主枪，两段只引跳空表 EOD
退出去的钱回到了芯片，回来的人在配一年期保险：SMH +2.75 板块第一；盘中（开盘到收盘）INTC +3.92 / SMCI +6.09 / SNDK +3.19 / MU +2.40 / AMD +2.15，量比 1.1–2.0x；cm365 INTC +3.58 / SMCI +2.74 / AMD +1.38 / SNDK +1.18 / MU +0.82；同日 SPY 开盘到收盘 −0.07%、量 0.84x，指数的涨是跳出来的
Test: 09.24 前 SMH 收回 09.16 的 545.56 以下且芯片 cm365 回落到 09.16 水平 ⇒ 一天反弹，收回。cm365 只引 15:45 主枪，两段只引跳空表 EOD
09.24 Settled
成立结清：收回要两条同时满足，第一条就没满足。SMH 09-17 起收盘 560.61 / 573.00 / 596.03 / 607.46 / 601.41 / 600.52，从没回到 09-16 的 545.56 以下；芯片 cm365 09-24 全在 09-16 之上：INTC 60.80→66.71、AMD 54.63→56.45、MU 57.59→60.34、SMCI 75.06→77.77、SNDK 70.48→71.96、SMH 37.44→38.71。回来的钱没走，一年期保险也没退
Result: 成立
成立结清：收回要两条同时满足，第一条就没满足。SMH 09-17 起收盘 560.61 / 573.00 / 596.03 / 607.46 / 601.41 / 600.52，从没回到 09-16 的 545.56 以下；芯片 cm365 09-24 全在 09-16 之上：INTC 60.80→66.71、AMD 54.63→56.45、MU 57.59→60.34、SMCI 75.06→77.77、SNDK 70.48→71.96、SMH 37.44→38.71。回来的钱没走，一年期保险也没退
Result: 成立
09.15Decision-day money split direction on two namesAlso: TSLA, METAsellers won
Settlement
sellers won
sellers won
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.15 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
决议日的钱在两只票上分了方向：特斯拉押跌（$171.8M 看跌 74%）、Meta 押涨（$112.1M 看涨 66%）、美光押动（930 两边各万余张）；隐含一日波动 TSLA 2.2% / MU 2.5% / META 1.9%
Test: 09.16 收盘 TSLA >350 ⇒ 看跌大半归零，方向读对结果没读对，记账不改判；TSLA 单日 |chg| >2.2% ⇒ 卖保护的输
决议日的钱在两只票上分了方向：特斯拉押跌（$171.8M 看跌 74%）、Meta 押涨（$112.1M 看涨 66%）、美光押动（930 两边各万余张）；隐含一日波动 TSLA 2.2% / MU 2.5% / META 1.9%
Test: 09.16 收盘 TSLA >350 ⇒ 看跌大半归零，方向读对结果没读对，记账不改判；TSLA 单日 |chg| >2.2% ⇒ 卖保护的输
09.16 Settled
卖保护的赢，押跌方向对、规模读大了：TSLA 收 358.08（+0.42%，振幅 2.86% 对隐含 2.2%）、MU 926.55（−0.11%，振幅 2.54% 对 2.5%）、META 673.31（+0.46%，振幅 2.00% 对 1.9%），三只收盘全在预期波动内；TSLA 六档看跌四档归零，360P 剩 1.92（昨收 5.74）、362.5P 剩 4.42（昨收 7.47）。追加：六档 09-16 结算 OI 只增 13144（3.9%），$171.8M 是日内进出
Result: 卖保护的赢
卖保护的赢，押跌方向对、规模读大了：TSLA 收 358.08（+0.42%，振幅 2.86% 对隐含 2.2%）、MU 926.55（−0.11%，振幅 2.54% 对 2.5%）、META 673.31（+0.46%，振幅 2.00% 对 1.9%），三只收盘全在预期波动内；TSLA 六档看跌四档归零，360P 剩 1.92（昨收 5.74）、362.5P 剩 4.42（昨收 7.47）。追加：六档 09-16 结算 OI 只增 13144（3.9%），$171.8M 是日内进出
Result: 卖保护的赢
09.14The letter changed the overnight price and did not change the session's positionsAlso: SMH, SNDK, AMD, INTC, QCOM, NVDA, AVGO, ARMholds
Settlement
holds
holds
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.14 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
AI 放缓那封信改变的是夜里的价，没有改变白天的仓位：SMH 跳空 −5.02 白天 +0.28（2.01x）；MU −7.10/+1.99、SNDK −6.85/+2.00、AMD −5.78/+1.47、INTC −6.92/+1.43、QCOM −6.15/+5.49 白天全被买回；NVDA −3.23/−0.13、AVGO −3.41/−1.40、ARM −8.46/−1.39 没人接。白天被买回的名单与 FT 09-11 报道 Situational Awareness 用深度价外看涨重建仓位的名单（AMD/INTC/SKHY/SNDK/CRWV）重合
Test: 09.15 SMH 开盘跳空超过 −2% 且白天不再买回 ⇒ 今日的买回是空头回补，收回。只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15
AI 放缓那封信改变的是夜里的价，没有改变白天的仓位：SMH 跳空 −5.02 白天 +0.28（2.01x）；MU −7.10/+1.99、SNDK −6.85/+2.00、AMD −5.78/+1.47、INTC −6.92/+1.43、QCOM −6.15/+5.49 白天全被买回；NVDA −3.23/−0.13、AVGO −3.41/−1.40、ARM −8.46/−1.39 没人接。白天被买回的名单与 FT 09-11 报道 Situational Awareness 用深度价外看涨重建仓位的名单（AMD/INTC/SKHY/SNDK/CRWV）重合
Test: 09.15 SMH 开盘跳空超过 −2% 且白天不再买回 ⇒ 今日的买回是空头回补，收回。只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15
09.15 Settled
保留：SMH 09-15 跳空 +0.94 白天 −0.82 收 +0.11，成交量 0.57x，缩量回落＝无人问津不是交货；MU +1.46/−1.06、SNDK +1.14/−2.47、INTC +1.69/−1.71、NVDA +1.14/−0.56、AVGO +0.38/−1.96；QCOM +0.21/+4.02 例外
Test: 收回条件（gap ≤−2% 且白天不买回）未触发
Result: 保留
保留：SMH 09-15 跳空 +0.94 白天 −0.82 收 +0.11，成交量 0.57x，缩量回落＝无人问津不是交货；MU +1.46/−1.06、SNDK +1.14/−2.47、INTC +1.69/−1.71、NVDA +1.14/−0.56、AVGO +0.38/−1.96；QCOM +0.21/+4.02 例外
Test: 收回条件（gap ≤−2% 且白天不买回）未触发
Result: 保留
09.14Protection sellers treated the bank guidance as new information and did not treat the letter as new informationAlso: GS, WFC, JPM, BAC, C, SNDK, INTC, AMD, AVGO, NVDA, TSMconfirmed
Settlement
confirmed
confirmed
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.14 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
卖保护的人把银行的指引当成了新信息，没把那封信当成新信息：cm30 单日变化 GS +3.51 / WFC +2.99 / JPM +2.74 / BAC +2.39 / C +2.19 对 MU −0.04 / AMD +0.58 / AVGO +1.02 / NVDA +1.87 / TSM +2.01；cm365 MU 61.81→59.71（−2.10）、SNDK −1.61、INTC −1.01。起因＝美国银行 CEO 巴克莱会议：三季度交易收入持平、投行费用降一成
Test: 09.16 决议后 MU cm30 抬过 62 而股价不反弹 ⇒ 保护市场补定价了那封信，收回。只引 每日恒定期限IV.csv 15:45 主枪
卖保护的人把银行的指引当成了新信息，没把那封信当成新信息：cm30 单日变化 GS +3.51 / WFC +2.99 / JPM +2.74 / BAC +2.39 / C +2.19 对 MU −0.04 / AMD +0.58 / AVGO +1.02 / NVDA +1.87 / TSM +2.01；cm365 MU 61.81→59.71（−2.10）、SNDK −1.61、INTC −1.01。起因＝美国银行 CEO 巴克莱会议：三季度交易收入持平、投行费用降一成
Test: 09.16 决议后 MU cm30 抬过 62 而股价不反弹 ⇒ 保护市场补定价了那封信，收回。只引 每日恒定期限IV.csv 15:45 主枪
09.17 Settled
成立结清：MU cm30 09-17 57.86 <62（09-16 58.43）；银行三天涨的保费 09-17 一天退光，改价方向对了、持久性没有
Result: 成立
成立结清：MU cm30 09-17 57.86 <62（09-16 58.43）；银行三天涨的保费 09-17 一天退光，改价方向对了、持久性没有
Result: 成立
09.10The sellers acted in the index and in long bonds on heavy volume and took no view on single namesAlso: SMH, TLT, IWM, SPY, INTC, SNDK, AMDStands
Settlement
Stands
Stands
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.10 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
卖的人在指数与长债上放量动手，没在个股上表态：SMH 1.91x / TLT 1.49x / IWM 1.41x / SPY 1.29x 对 INTC 0.99x / MU 1.08x / SNDK 0.90x / AMD 0.72x；同日指数 cm30 +1.24/+1.10 而单票 cm30 全退
Test: 09.11 若存储链放量（成交量 >1.3 倍昨日）续跌，则个股层面开始交货，收回。量比只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15 的 volume/prev_volume；IV 只引 15:45 主枪
卖的人在指数与长债上放量动手，没在个股上表态：SMH 1.91x / TLT 1.49x / IWM 1.41x / SPY 1.29x 对 INTC 0.99x / MU 1.08x / SNDK 0.90x / AMD 0.72x；同日指数 cm30 +1.24/+1.10 而单票 cm30 全退
Test: 09.11 若存储链放量（成交量 >1.3 倍昨日）续跌，则个股层面开始交货，收回。量比只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15 的 volume/prev_volume；IV 只引 15:45 主枪
09.11 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
卖的人在指数与长债上放量动手，没在个股上表态——终审
Test: 09.11 若存储链放量（成交量 >1.3 倍昨日）续跌，则个股层面开始交货，收回。量比只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15
Result: 保留。SNDK −3.50 / 1.07x、MU −0.22 / 0.83x、INTC +2.61 / 0.90x，无一放量 >1.3x；缩量续跌＝无人问津，不是有人交货
卖的人在指数与长债上放量动手，没在个股上表态——终审
Test: 09.11 若存储链放量（成交量 >1.3 倍昨日）续跌，则个股层面开始交货，收回。量比只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15
Result: 保留。SNDK −3.50 / 1.07x、MU −0.22 / 0.83x、INTC +2.61 / 0.90x，无一放量 >1.3x；缩量续跌＝无人问津，不是有人交货
08.17Today's gains in the two memory names were set before the openAlso: SNDKThe strengthened condition hit
Settlement
The strengthened condition hit: both legs carried the same sign on two consecutive days. On 08-17, SNDK ran +3.63 overnight and +5.06 in session, MU +2.87 and +1.22; on 08-18, SNDK -6.12 and -3.09, MU -5.40 and -1.71. All four pairs agree in sign, and none showed the reversal of a positive overnight against a negative session. Right.
The strengthened condition hit: both legs carried the same sign on two consecutive days. On 08-17, SNDK ran +3.63 overnight and +5.06 in session, MU +2.87 and +1.22; on 08-18, SNDK -6.12 and -3.09, MU -5.40 and -1.71. All four pairs agree in sign, and none showed the reversal of a positive overnight against a negative session. Right.
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
08.17 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
存储两只今天的涨幅主要在开盘前定死，白天只是没有反悔（延续型），而非盘中新增买盘推动
Test: 次日两段拆解：若白天段转为反向（夜里正白天负）则本判断被削弱；连续两日两段同号则加强。只引 每日跳空.csv 的 gap_pct/intraday_pct
存储两只今天的涨幅主要在开盘前定死，白天只是没有反悔（延续型），而非盘中新增买盘推动
Test: 次日两段拆解：若白天段转为反向（夜里正白天负）则本判断被削弱；连续两日两段同号则加强。只引 每日跳空.csv 的 gap_pct/intraday_pct
08.20 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
存储两只 08-17 涨幅在盘前定死、白天只是没有反悔（延续型）——终审
Test: 次日两段拆解：夜里正白天负则削弱；连续两日两段同号则加强。只引每日跳空.csv 的 gap_pct/intraday_pct
Result: 加强条件命中＝连续两日两段同号：08-17 SNDK 夜+3.63/白+5.06、MU 夜+2.87/白+1.22；08-18 SNDK 夜-6.12/白-3.09、MU 夜-5.40/白-1.71。四组两段全部同号，无一组出现「夜里正白天负」的反向 ⇒ 对
存储两只 08-17 涨幅在盘前定死、白天只是没有反悔（延续型）——终审
Test: 次日两段拆解：夜里正白天负则削弱；连续两日两段同号则加强。只引每日跳空.csv 的 gap_pct/intraday_pct
Result: 加强条件命中＝连续两日两段同号：08-17 SNDK 夜+3.63/白+5.06、MU 夜+2.87/白+1.22；08-18 SNDK 夜-6.12/白-3.09、MU 夜-5.40/白-1.71。四组两段全部同号，无一组出现「夜里正白天负」的反向 ⇒ 对
08.17In the same-day-expiry layer, the overwhelming majority of volume has nothing to do with directionAlso: SPY, QQQ, META, NVDA (13 names in all)Not determinable
Settlement
Not determinable. The filing hard-coded its test as "only rows in the daily contract observation log whose source is the quote-screen OCR feed," and that source recorded nothing from 2026-08-18 through the settlement date — a direct check of 08-18 to 08-26 returns zero rows. The input the test required was never produced, so this case physically cannot be settled.
Not determinable. The filing hard-coded its test as "only rows in the daily contract observation log whose source is the quote-screen OCR feed," and that source recorded nothing from 2026-08-18 through the settlement date — a direct check of 08-18 to 08-26 returns zero rows. The input the test required was never produced, so this case physically cannot be settled.
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
08.17 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
当日到期这一层，绝大部分成交量与方向无关：13 只里 11 只最热档是看跌，12 只行权价贴在收盘价 ±1% 内
Test: 后续三个到期日统计：最热档若系统性偏离现价（|行权价−收盘|/收盘 > 1% 的票占多数），则本判断不成立，08-17 记为单日形状；仍贴现价则加强。只引 每日合约观察日志.csv 里 source=行情尺截图OCR 的行
当日到期这一层，绝大部分成交量与方向无关：13 只里 11 只最热档是看跌，12 只行权价贴在收盘价 ±1% 内
Test: 后续三个到期日统计：最热档若系统性偏离现价（|行权价−收盘|/收盘 > 1% 的票占多数），则本判断不成立，08-17 记为单日形状；仍贴现价则加强。只引 每日合约观察日志.csv 里 source=行情尺截图OCR 的行
08.26 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
当日到期这一层，绝大部分成交量与方向无关：13 只里 11 只最热档是看跌，12 只行权价贴在收盘价 ±1% 内——终审
Test: 后续三个到期日统计：最热档若系统性偏离现价（|行权价−收盘|/收盘 > 1% 的票占多数），则本判断不成立，08-17 记为单日形状；仍贴现价则加强。只引 每日合约观察日志.csv 里 source=行情尺截图OCR 的行
Result: 无法判定。立案时把判据写死为「只引 每日合约观察日志.csv 里 source=行情尺截图OCR 的行」，而该来源自 2026-08-18 起至开奖日一行未入库(实查 08-18~08-26 共 0 行)⇒ 判据所需的输入从未产生，本判断在物理上无法执行开奖。
当日到期这一层，绝大部分成交量与方向无关：13 只里 11 只最热档是看跌，12 只行权价贴在收盘价 ±1% 内——终审
Test: 后续三个到期日统计：最热档若系统性偏离现价（|行权价−收盘|/收盘 > 1% 的票占多数），则本判断不成立，08-17 记为单日形状；仍贴现价则加强。只引 每日合约观察日志.csv 里 source=行情尺截图OCR 的行
Result: 无法判定。立案时把判据写死为「只引 每日合约观察日志.csv 里 source=行情尺截图OCR 的行」，而该来源自 2026-08-18 起至开奖日一行未入库(实查 08-18~08-26 共 0 行)⇒ 判据所需的输入从未产生，本判断在物理上无法执行开奖。
07.23The $104M 07-31 800C block is a leveraged stock substitute, i.e.The buyer took a large loss at expiry
Settlement
The buyer took a large loss at expiry: the 07-31 official close of 823.03 was far below the 996 breakeven, short by 17.4%. Intrinsic value at expiry came to just $23.03 per share against roughly $196 per share paid in premium.
The buyer took a large loss at expiry: the 07-31 official close of 823.03 was far below the 996 breakeven, short by 17.4%. Intrinsic value at expiry came to just $23.03 per share against roughly $196 per share paid in premium.
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
07.23 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
0731 800C $1.04亿块=高杠杆正股替代/方向性下注(非彩票/非sell call/非换仓)
Test: 逐日对账至 0731 到期:收盘价 vs 保本线996;若现旧腿平仓证据则改判换仓
0731 800C $1.04亿块=高杠杆正股替代/方向性下注(非彩票/非sell call/非换仓)
Test: 逐日对账至 0731 到期:收盘价 vs 保本线996;若现旧腿平仓证据则改判换仓
08.13 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
0731 800C 大宗=高杠杆正股替代/方向性下注（终审）
Test: 逐日对账至0731到期:收盘价vs保本线996
Result: 买方到期大额亏损：0731官方收盘823.03<<保本线996（差17.4%）·800C到期内在仅$23.03/股vs权利金成本约$196/股
0731 800C 大宗=高杠杆正股替代/方向性下注（终审）
Test: 逐日对账至0731到期:收盘价vs保本线996
Result: 买方到期大额亏损：0731官方收盘823.03<<保本线996（差17.4%）·800C到期内在仅$23.03/股vs权利金成本约$196/股
Cases for every name are in Chapter III of the options page. The ledger is append-only; a revision is a new row.
VI
Other names
Decades of Micron Technology price history and drawdowns are in The Archive · Tech.
SPY
QQQ
IWM
TLT
SMH
XLF
XLK
XLV
AAPL
AMZN
GOOG
GOOGL
META
MSFT
NVDA
TSLA
SPCX
AVGO
TSM
AMD
INTC
SNDK
MRVL
QCOM
SKHY
SMCI
DELL
ORCL
PLTR
CRWV
NBIS
COIN
HOOD
MSTR
SOFI
JPM
BAC
C
WFC
GS
KRE
V
MA
AXP
MS
SCHW
BLK
BRK.B
CRCL
WMT
COST
HD
TJX
MCD
KO
RACE
MC.PA
RMS.PA
How to read this page
· The one-year percentile and the 30-day and one-year implied vols come from two different sources; each is compared only with its own past, and the two are never spliced together.
· The 30-day and one-year vols are constant-maturity: interpolated between the two nearest expiries to exactly 30 and 365 days, read once before each close.
· A big-print row is one contract's full-day total, not a single trade. Without per-trade timestamps or aggressor side we state premium traded only.
· Every reading is cross-checked against two independent sources and updated once after the close. Raw data is not provided on this site.
· Valuation ratios, margins and returns are computed from the company's filed quarterly and annual reports, on the same basis as the sector stock view, and updated weekly.
· The P/E percentile compares the company only with its own quarter-end record, never with other companies, and is not spliced with the current readings above.
· Data and information only; not investment advice; no buy or sell recommendations.
· The one-year percentile and the 30-day and one-year implied vols come from two different sources; each is compared only with its own past, and the two are never spliced together.
· The 30-day and one-year vols are constant-maturity: interpolated between the two nearest expiries to exactly 30 and 365 days, read once before each close.
· A big-print row is one contract's full-day total, not a single trade. Without per-trade timestamps or aggressor side we state premium traded only.
· Every reading is cross-checked against two independent sources and updated once after the close. Raw data is not provided on this site.
· Valuation ratios, margins and returns are computed from the company's filed quarterly and annual reports, on the same basis as the sector stock view, and updated weekly.
· The P/E percentile compares the company only with its own quarter-end record, never with other companies, and is not spliced with the current readings above.
· Data and information only; not investment advice; no buy or sell recommendations.
Today's read on this name is in the subscriber email; past issues go public the next day.