Options / Tickers / INTC
TICKER PAGE · INTC
Intel (INTC)
Is protection on Intel cheap or dear today, where has the money been placed, how did the past month play out, and how did the judgments we filed on Intel settle? Updated after every close, with right and wrong judgments alike left on the record.
Data date 10.07 · close 113.9 (—) · −19.99% from the 52-week high
I
Where it stands today
One-year IV percentile50 / 100
Where one-month protection (30-day implied volatility) sits within its past-year range, 0 the cheapest and 100 the dearest. Protection on Intel is now in the middle of the past year.
30-day / one-year implied vol (%)66.87 / 59.62
The 30-day sits 7.25 points above the one-year: something near-term is being priced on its own.
Expected move this week±3.8% ±4.25
Centred on the previous close of 112.5, option prices imply 108.25 to 116.75 at this week's expiry. A close outside it at expiry means the option sellers lose.
Put ÷ call (volume / open interest)0.4 / 0.89
Calls outtraded puts. It counts contracts, not direction: a put buyer may be insuring shares they own.
Levels from high to low, with distance from the close:
| Call wall | 130 | +14.14% | The strike with the most call open interest: an upside target someone has already made a down payment on. |
| Expected move, high | 116.75 | +2.50% | Centred on the previous close: the implied top at this week's expiry. |
| Close | 113.9 | ||
| Put wall | 110 | −3.42% | The strike with the most put open interest: protection someone already paid for. |
| Flip level | 108.89 | −4.40% | Above it, dealer hedging damps moves; below it, hedging amplifies them. |
| Expected move, low | 108.25 | −4.96% | Centred on the previous close: the implied bottom at this week's expiry. |
Data date 10.07. Updated once after each trading day's close; spot is the official close.
II
The last 30 trading days
Close, flip level, put wall and call wall, day by day: which side of the walls price is on, and whether the walls moved.
One-year and 30-day implied vol, day by day. The short line jumping while the long line holds means only the near-term event is being repriced; the long line rising too means the whole story is.
Shown: the last 30 trading days. Earlier records are in Chapter V (walls) and Chapter VII (implied vol) of the options page.
III
Today's big prints
Today Intel calls traded $17.8M in premium and puts $1.7M. Traded, not bought: we cannot see who bought and who sold.
No Intel contract made today's leaderboard.
Data date only. The board for every name is in Chapter IV of the options page.
IV
Every case we filed on it
Each judgment is written down with its test before the fact, settled by that test, and left standing when wrong. These are all the cases that name Intel, none removed. Open one for the original filing.
10cases since 08.19
9settled
1open
09.18After the second and third hikes, what gets repriced is the farthest cash flow in the expensive group , not the cheap group .Also: SNDK, MSTR, NVDA, GOOGL, GSOpen · est. 11.30
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.18 Filed (confidence: 中)
第二三次加息之后被重新定价的是贵的那组里现金流最远的，不是便宜的那组。贵组＝SNDK PB 16.67（一年 84% 时间便宜）/ MSTR PB 1.72（一年 89%）/ INTC PB 6.20（五年 99.8%）；便宜组＝NVDA PE 27.77（五年 99% 时间贵）/ GOOGL PE 17.51（五年 95%）/ GS PE 13.73（三年九成），均 09-18 收盘
Test: 10-28 之后一个月（到 11-30）贵组三只等权涨幅跑赢便宜组三只等权 ⇒ 收回；跑输或持平 ⇒ 成立。基准＝09-18 收盘
第二三次加息之后被重新定价的是贵的那组里现金流最远的，不是便宜的那组。贵组＝SNDK PB 16.67（一年 84% 时间便宜）/ MSTR PB 1.72（一年 89%）/ INTC PB 6.20（五年 99.8%）；便宜组＝NVDA PE 27.77（五年 99% 时间贵）/ GOOGL PE 17.51（五年 95%）/ GS PE 13.73（三年九成），均 09-18 收盘
Test: 10-28 之后一个月（到 11-30）贵组三只等权涨幅跑赢便宜组三只等权 ⇒ 收回；跑输或持平 ⇒ 成立。基准＝09-18 收盘
09.22The CPU story was accepted on day twoAlso: AMD, QCOMconfirmed
Settlement
confirmed
confirmed
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.22 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
昨天那条 Agent 把 CPU 重新定价的故事，第二天被接受了：追的人不再为它多买保护。AMD 涨 1.34% 而 cm30 −2.15，高通涨 2.08% 而 −1.42；英特尔是例外，cm30 +0.68 到 72.86 仍是全表最贵
Test: 09-25 前 AMD 与高通股价续涨而 cm30 双双回到 09-21 的 54.45 与 52.74 之上 ⇒ 追的人又开始买保护，收回
昨天那条 Agent 把 CPU 重新定价的故事，第二天被接受了：追的人不再为它多买保护。AMD 涨 1.34% 而 cm30 −2.15，高通涨 2.08% 而 −1.42；英特尔是例外，cm30 +0.68 到 72.86 仍是全表最贵
Test: 09-25 前 AMD 与高通股价续涨而 cm30 双双回到 09-21 的 54.45 与 52.74 之上 ⇒ 追的人又开始买保护，收回
09.25 Settled
成立结清：收回要 AMD 与高通股价续涨且 cm30 双双回到 09-21 的 54.45 / 52.74 之上。股价续涨了（AMD 623.77→630.63、高通 198.27→201.97），cm30 却一直在线下：AMD 52.30 / 51.56 / 50.56，高通 51.32 / 50.76 / 49.33 / 49.67（09-22 / 09-23 / 09-24 / 09-25；AMD 09-23 为 50.95）。故事被接受后，追的人没再回头买保护
Result: 成立
成立结清：收回要 AMD 与高通股价续涨且 cm30 双双回到 09-21 的 54.45 / 52.74 之上。股价续涨了（AMD 623.77→630.63、高通 198.27→201.97），cm30 却一直在线下：AMD 52.30 / 51.56 / 50.56，高通 51.32 / 50.76 / 49.33 / 49.67（09-22 / 09-23 / 09-24 / 09-25；AMD 09-23 为 50.95）。故事被接受后，追的人没再回头买保护
Result: 成立
09.21A stock rising with its insurance is the chasers attaching protection, not a short squeeze.Also: META, QCOM, MSTR, AMDconfirmed
Settlement
confirmed
confirmed
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.21 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
股价涨保险跟着涨，是追的人自己在买保护，不是空头回补。INTC cm30 +9.49 / META +7.05 / QCOM +6.36 / MSTR +6.25 / AMD +5.63，同日 SPY cm30 12.22 不动
Test: 09.25 前这五只里三只以上股价续涨而 cm30 回落到 09-18 水平以下（62.69/37.64/46.38/67.70/48.82）⇒ 是空头回补，收回。cm30 只引 15:45 主枪
股价涨保险跟着涨，是追的人自己在买保护，不是空头回补。INTC cm30 +9.49 / META +7.05 / QCOM +6.36 / MSTR +6.25 / AMD +5.63，同日 SPY cm30 12.22 不动
Test: 09.25 前这五只里三只以上股价续涨而 cm30 回落到 09-18 水平以下（62.69/37.64/46.38/67.70/48.82）⇒ 是空头回补，收回。cm30 只引 15:45 主枪
09.25 Settled
成立结清：收回要三只以上「股价续涨且 cm30 回落到 09-18 以下」，一只都没有。股价对 09-21 收盘：INTC 121.78→123.00、META 741.25→751.66、QCOM 194.23→201.97、AMD 615.52→630.63 续涨，MSTR 168.50→158.61 回落；cm30（15:45 主枪）09-25 对 09-18 基准：INTC 72.88/62.69、META 41.30/37.64、QCOM 49.67/46.38、AMD 50.56/48.82，全部仍在基准之上（MSTR 64.17/67.70 回落但股价没涨）。追的人买的保护一周后退了一部分（四只都比 09-21 峰值低），没有退回原位
Result: 成立
成立结清：收回要三只以上「股价续涨且 cm30 回落到 09-18 以下」，一只都没有。股价对 09-21 收盘：INTC 121.78→123.00、META 741.25→751.66、QCOM 194.23→201.97、AMD 615.52→630.63 续涨，MSTR 168.50→158.61 回落；cm30（15:45 主枪）09-25 对 09-18 基准：INTC 72.88/62.69、META 41.30/37.64、QCOM 49.67/46.38、AMD 50.56/48.82，全部仍在基准之上（MSTR 64.17/67.70 回落但股价没涨）。追的人买的保护一周后退了一部分（四只都比 09-21 峰值低），没有退回原位
Result: 成立
09.17Withdrawn: the money that left came back.Also: SMH, TLT, AMD, SNDK, MUwithdrawn
Settlement
withdrawn
withdrawn
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.17 Settled
收回：退出去的钱回来了。收回条件「决议后 SMH 与 TLT 同日领涨」成立：SMH +2.75（板块 ETF 第一）、TLT +1.11（债券 ETF 第一）；回来第一天买的是 INTC intra +3.92 / SMCI +6.09 / SNDK +3.19 / MU +2.40 / AMD +2.15（跳空表 EOD 17:15）
Result: 收回
收回：退出去的钱回来了。收回条件「决议后 SMH 与 TLT 同日领涨」成立：SMH +2.75（板块 ETF 第一）、TLT +1.11（债券 ETF 第一）；回来第一天买的是 INTC intra +3.92 / SMCI +6.09 / SNDK +3.19 / MU +2.40 / AMD +2.15（跳空表 EOD 17:15）
Result: 收回
09.17The money that left came back to chips, and the buyers are insuring a year outAlso: SMH, SMCI, AMD, SNDK, MUconfirmed
Settlement
confirmed
confirmed
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.17 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
退出去的钱回到了芯片，回来的人在配一年期保险：SMH +2.75 板块第一；盘中（开盘到收盘）INTC +3.92 / SMCI +6.09 / SNDK +3.19 / MU +2.40 / AMD +2.15，量比 1.1–2.0x；cm365 INTC +3.58 / SMCI +2.74 / AMD +1.38 / SNDK +1.18 / MU +0.82；同日 SPY 开盘到收盘 −0.07%、量 0.84x，指数的涨是跳出来的
Test: 09.24 前 SMH 收回 09.16 的 545.56 以下且芯片 cm365 回落到 09.16 水平 ⇒ 一天反弹，收回。cm365 只引 15:45 主枪，两段只引跳空表 EOD
退出去的钱回到了芯片，回来的人在配一年期保险：SMH +2.75 板块第一；盘中（开盘到收盘）INTC +3.92 / SMCI +6.09 / SNDK +3.19 / MU +2.40 / AMD +2.15，量比 1.1–2.0x；cm365 INTC +3.58 / SMCI +2.74 / AMD +1.38 / SNDK +1.18 / MU +0.82；同日 SPY 开盘到收盘 −0.07%、量 0.84x，指数的涨是跳出来的
Test: 09.24 前 SMH 收回 09.16 的 545.56 以下且芯片 cm365 回落到 09.16 水平 ⇒ 一天反弹，收回。cm365 只引 15:45 主枪，两段只引跳空表 EOD
09.24 Settled
成立结清：收回要两条同时满足，第一条就没满足。SMH 09-17 起收盘 560.61 / 573.00 / 596.03 / 607.46 / 601.41 / 600.52，从没回到 09-16 的 545.56 以下；芯片 cm365 09-24 全在 09-16 之上：INTC 60.80→66.71、AMD 54.63→56.45、MU 57.59→60.34、SMCI 75.06→77.77、SNDK 70.48→71.96、SMH 37.44→38.71。回来的钱没走，一年期保险也没退
Result: 成立
成立结清：收回要两条同时满足，第一条就没满足。SMH 09-17 起收盘 560.61 / 573.00 / 596.03 / 607.46 / 601.41 / 600.52，从没回到 09-16 的 545.56 以下；芯片 cm365 09-24 全在 09-16 之上：INTC 60.80→66.71、AMD 54.63→56.45、MU 57.59→60.34、SMCI 75.06→77.77、SNDK 70.48→71.96、SMH 37.44→38.71。回来的钱没走，一年期保险也没退
Result: 成立
09.14The letter changed the overnight price and did not change the session's positionsAlso: SMH, MU, SNDK, AMD, QCOM, NVDA, AVGO, ARMholds
Settlement
holds
holds
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.14 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
AI 放缓那封信改变的是夜里的价，没有改变白天的仓位：SMH 跳空 −5.02 白天 +0.28（2.01x）；MU −7.10/+1.99、SNDK −6.85/+2.00、AMD −5.78/+1.47、INTC −6.92/+1.43、QCOM −6.15/+5.49 白天全被买回；NVDA −3.23/−0.13、AVGO −3.41/−1.40、ARM −8.46/−1.39 没人接。白天被买回的名单与 FT 09-11 报道 Situational Awareness 用深度价外看涨重建仓位的名单（AMD/INTC/SKHY/SNDK/CRWV）重合
Test: 09.15 SMH 开盘跳空超过 −2% 且白天不再买回 ⇒ 今日的买回是空头回补，收回。只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15
AI 放缓那封信改变的是夜里的价，没有改变白天的仓位：SMH 跳空 −5.02 白天 +0.28（2.01x）；MU −7.10/+1.99、SNDK −6.85/+2.00、AMD −5.78/+1.47、INTC −6.92/+1.43、QCOM −6.15/+5.49 白天全被买回；NVDA −3.23/−0.13、AVGO −3.41/−1.40、ARM −8.46/−1.39 没人接。白天被买回的名单与 FT 09-11 报道 Situational Awareness 用深度价外看涨重建仓位的名单（AMD/INTC/SKHY/SNDK/CRWV）重合
Test: 09.15 SMH 开盘跳空超过 −2% 且白天不再买回 ⇒ 今日的买回是空头回补，收回。只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15
09.15 Settled
保留：SMH 09-15 跳空 +0.94 白天 −0.82 收 +0.11，成交量 0.57x，缩量回落＝无人问津不是交货；MU +1.46/−1.06、SNDK +1.14/−2.47、INTC +1.69/−1.71、NVDA +1.14/−0.56、AVGO +0.38/−1.96；QCOM +0.21/+4.02 例外
Test: 收回条件（gap ≤−2% 且白天不买回）未触发
Result: 保留
保留：SMH 09-15 跳空 +0.94 白天 −0.82 收 +0.11，成交量 0.57x，缩量回落＝无人问津不是交货；MU +1.46/−1.06、SNDK +1.14/−2.47、INTC +1.69/−1.71、NVDA +1.14/−0.56、AVGO +0.38/−1.96；QCOM +0.21/+4.02 例外
Test: 收回条件（gap ≤−2% 且白天不买回）未触发
Result: 保留
09.14Protection sellers treated the bank guidance as new information and did not treat the letter as new informationAlso: GS, WFC, JPM, BAC, C, MU, SNDK, AMD, AVGO, NVDA, TSMconfirmed
Settlement
confirmed
confirmed
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.14 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
卖保护的人把银行的指引当成了新信息，没把那封信当成新信息：cm30 单日变化 GS +3.51 / WFC +2.99 / JPM +2.74 / BAC +2.39 / C +2.19 对 MU −0.04 / AMD +0.58 / AVGO +1.02 / NVDA +1.87 / TSM +2.01；cm365 MU 61.81→59.71（−2.10）、SNDK −1.61、INTC −1.01。起因＝美国银行 CEO 巴克莱会议：三季度交易收入持平、投行费用降一成
Test: 09.16 决议后 MU cm30 抬过 62 而股价不反弹 ⇒ 保护市场补定价了那封信，收回。只引 每日恒定期限IV.csv 15:45 主枪
卖保护的人把银行的指引当成了新信息，没把那封信当成新信息：cm30 单日变化 GS +3.51 / WFC +2.99 / JPM +2.74 / BAC +2.39 / C +2.19 对 MU −0.04 / AMD +0.58 / AVGO +1.02 / NVDA +1.87 / TSM +2.01；cm365 MU 61.81→59.71（−2.10）、SNDK −1.61、INTC −1.01。起因＝美国银行 CEO 巴克莱会议：三季度交易收入持平、投行费用降一成
Test: 09.16 决议后 MU cm30 抬过 62 而股价不反弹 ⇒ 保护市场补定价了那封信，收回。只引 每日恒定期限IV.csv 15:45 主枪
09.17 Settled
成立结清：MU cm30 09-17 57.86 <62（09-16 58.43）；银行三天涨的保费 09-17 一天退光，改价方向对了、持久性没有
Result: 成立
成立结清：MU cm30 09-17 57.86 <62（09-16 58.43）；银行三天涨的保费 09-17 一天退光，改价方向对了、持久性没有
Result: 成立
09.10The sellers acted in the index and in long bonds on heavy volume and took no view on single namesAlso: SMH, TLT, IWM, SPY, MU, SNDK, AMDStands
Settlement
Stands
Stands
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.10 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
卖的人在指数与长债上放量动手，没在个股上表态：SMH 1.91x / TLT 1.49x / IWM 1.41x / SPY 1.29x 对 INTC 0.99x / MU 1.08x / SNDK 0.90x / AMD 0.72x；同日指数 cm30 +1.24/+1.10 而单票 cm30 全退
Test: 09.11 若存储链放量（成交量 >1.3 倍昨日）续跌，则个股层面开始交货，收回。量比只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15 的 volume/prev_volume；IV 只引 15:45 主枪
卖的人在指数与长债上放量动手，没在个股上表态：SMH 1.91x / TLT 1.49x / IWM 1.41x / SPY 1.29x 对 INTC 0.99x / MU 1.08x / SNDK 0.90x / AMD 0.72x；同日指数 cm30 +1.24/+1.10 而单票 cm30 全退
Test: 09.11 若存储链放量（成交量 >1.3 倍昨日）续跌，则个股层面开始交货，收回。量比只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15 的 volume/prev_volume；IV 只引 15:45 主枪
09.11 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
卖的人在指数与长债上放量动手，没在个股上表态——终审
Test: 09.11 若存储链放量（成交量 >1.3 倍昨日）续跌，则个股层面开始交货，收回。量比只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15
Result: 保留。SNDK −3.50 / 1.07x、MU −0.22 / 0.83x、INTC +2.61 / 0.90x，无一放量 >1.3x；缩量续跌＝无人问津，不是有人交货
卖的人在指数与长债上放量动手，没在个股上表态——终审
Test: 09.11 若存储链放量（成交量 >1.3 倍昨日）续跌，则个股层面开始交货，收回。量比只引 每日跳空.csv EOD 17:15
Result: 保留。SNDK −3.50 / 1.07x、MU −0.22 / 0.83x、INTC +2.61 / 0.90x，无一放量 >1.3x；缩量续跌＝无人问津，不是有人交货
09.08On Intel’s 9.05% day the new money bought both ends Right on both halves
Settlement
Right on both halves. Intel closed at 100.32 (low 99.34). Open interest in the 09.18 100 calls fell from 52,210 to 40,622, so the old position is being cashed out; the 115 calls bought on 09.08 kept 62% of their open interest and are marked down 72%.
Right on both halves. Intel closed at 100.32 (low 99.34). Open interest in the 09.18 100 calls fell from 52,210 to 40,622, so the old position is being cashed out; the 115 calls bought on 09.08 kept 62% of their open interest and are marked down 72%.
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.08 Filed (confidence: More likely)
英特尔涨 9.05% 那天新钱两头都买（115C 1.85 倍、09.25 95P 5.54 倍、2027 140C/160C 与 2028 95P/135P/145P 全在两倍以上），买的是幅度不是方向；旧仓（100C/110C 倍数 0.35/0.51）在兑现
Test: 若 09.09 收盘仍在 100 上方且 09.18 100C 持仓较今日减少，则旧仓兑现、墙上挪；若收回 100 下方，115C 31038 张为追高。只引短打表 EOD 轮与结构日报盘前轮
英特尔涨 9.05% 那天新钱两头都买（115C 1.85 倍、09.25 95P 5.54 倍、2027 140C/160C 与 2028 95P/135P/145P 全在两倍以上），买的是幅度不是方向；旧仓（100C/110C 倍数 0.35/0.51）在兑现
Test: 若 09.09 收盘仍在 100 上方且 09.18 100C 持仓较今日减少，则旧仓兑现、墙上挪；若收回 100 下方，115C 31038 张为追高。只引短打表 EOD 轮与结构日报盘前轮
09.09 Settled (confidence: More likely)
英特尔涨 9.05% 那天新钱两头都买，买的是幅度不是方向；旧仓在兑现——终审
Test: 若 09.09 收盘仍在 100 上方且 09.18 100C 持仓较今日减少，则旧仓兑现、墙上挪；若收回 100 下方，115C 31038 张为追高
Result: 部分（只开出一半）。收 106.24，站住 100 那一半成立。第二半未测到：向 行情尺 取 09.18 100C 持仓得 52,210，与 09-08 表内 bc_oi 逐字相同
英特尔涨 9.05% 那天新钱两头都买，买的是幅度不是方向；旧仓在兑现——终审
Test: 若 09.09 收盘仍在 100 上方且 09.18 100C 持仓较今日减少，则旧仓兑现、墙上挪；若收回 100 下方，115C 31038 张为追高
Result: 部分（只开出一半）。收 106.24，站住 100 那一半成立。第二半未测到：向 行情尺 取 09.18 100C 持仓得 52,210，与 09-08 表内 bc_oi 逐字相同
09.10 Settled (confidence: More likely)
英特尔那条判断两半都对：站住 100，且 09.18 100C 旧仓在兑现——终审
Test: 若 09.09 收盘仍在 100 上方且 09.18 100C 持仓较 09.08 减少，则旧仓兑现、墙上挪；若收回 100 下方，115C 31038 张为追高
Result: 对（两半）。09.10 收 100.32 站住（低 99.34，差 32 美分）。09.18 100C 结算 OI 52,210（09-08）→ 41,499（09-09 EOD 轮）→ 40,622（09-10），−10,711 张两成多，旧仓兑现成立。同表 115C OI 16,816 → 35,948，09-08 新买 31,038 张留 62%，今报 0.47 对买入 1.70（−72%）：判断对了，追高的人没对
英特尔那条判断两半都对：站住 100，且 09.18 100C 旧仓在兑现——终审
Test: 若 09.09 收盘仍在 100 上方且 09.18 100C 持仓较 09.08 减少，则旧仓兑现、墙上挪；若收回 100 下方，115C 31038 张为追高
Result: 对（两半）。09.10 收 100.32 站住（低 99.34，差 32 美分）。09.18 100C 结算 OI 52,210（09-08）→ 41,499（09-09 EOD 轮）→ 40,622（09-10），−10,711 张两成多，旧仓兑现成立。同表 115C OI 16,816 → 35,948，09-08 新买 31,038 张留 62%，今报 0.47 对买入 1.70（−72%）：判断对了，追高的人没对
08.1908-19 was not a risk-off day: the four hardest-hit names all traded lighter than usual , so the decline came from absent buyers rather than selling pr…Also: SPY, QQQ, MSTR, COIN, AVGO, AMD, NVDARight — neither falsifying condition triggered
Settlement
Right — neither falsifying condition triggered. First: "if 08-20 brings a comparable decline on 1.5x or more volume, the no-sellers half fails." On 08-20 the four hardest-hit names printed AVGO +0.43%, RDDT -0.92%, INTC -0.72% and AMD +0.65% — none came close to the 3.71% to 4.61% declines of 08-19, so the premise never appeared and that half stands. Second: "if the high-beta group gives it all back, the long-end-and-weak-dollar half fails." MSTR rose 7.81%, COIN 7.58%, CVNA 1.53% and MARA 15.54%, while HOOD slipped 0.70% — four of five kept rising, which is not a full give-back, so that half stands as well.
Right — neither falsifying condition triggered. First: "if 08-20 brings a comparable decline on 1.5x or more volume, the no-sellers half fails." On 08-20 the four hardest-hit names printed AVGO +0.43%, RDDT -0.92%, INTC -0.72% and AMD +0.65% — none came close to the 3.71% to 4.61% declines of 08-19, so the premise never appeared and that half stands. Second: "if the high-beta group gives it all back, the long-end-and-weak-dollar half fails." MSTR rose 7.81%, COIN 7.58%, CVNA 1.53% and MARA 15.54%, while HOOD slipped 0.70% — four of five kept rising, which is not a full give-back, so that half stands as well.
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
08.19 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
08-19 不是避险日：跌得最狠的四只全部缩量（0.68~0.94倍），下跌来自买盘缺席而非卖压；当天真正的定价事件是财政部扩大长债回购，不是 FOMC 纪要
Test: 次日两条各自可推翻：①若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能，则「没人卖」这半不成立；②若高贝塔（MSTR/COIN/CVNA/MARA/HOOD）次日全数回吐，则「长端下行与美元走弱驱动」这半不成立。只引 每日跳空.csv 的 chg_pct 与本线量能倍数（当日量÷前20日均量）
08-19 不是避险日：跌得最狠的四只全部缩量（0.68~0.94倍），下跌来自买盘缺席而非卖压；当天真正的定价事件是财政部扩大长债回购，不是 FOMC 纪要
Test: 次日两条各自可推翻：①若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能，则「没人卖」这半不成立；②若高贝塔（MSTR/COIN/CVNA/MARA/HOOD）次日全数回吐，则「长端下行与美元走弱驱动」这半不成立。只引 每日跳空.csv 的 chg_pct 与本线量能倍数（当日量÷前20日均量）
08.26 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
08-19 不是避险日：跌得最狠的四只全部缩量（0.68~0.94倍），下跌来自买盘缺席而非卖压；当天真正的定价事件是财政部扩大长债回购，不是 FOMC 纪要——终审
Test: 次日两条各自可推翻：①若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能，则「没人卖」这半不成立；②若高贝塔（MSTR/COIN/CVNA/MARA/HOOD）次日全数回吐，则「长端下行与美元走弱驱动」这半不成立。只引 每日跳空.csv 的 chg_pct 与本线量能倍数（当日量÷前20日均量）
Result: 对(两条推翻条件均未触发)。①「若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能则『没人卖』半不成立」——08-19 跌最狠四只在 08-20 的表现为 AVGO +0.43%、RDDT -0.92%、INTC -0.72%、AMD +0.65%，无一只出现同等跌幅(08-19 为 -3.71~-4.61%)，前提未出现 ⇒ 该半未被推翻。②「若高贝塔全数回吐则『长端下行与美元走弱驱动』半不成立」——MSTR +7.81%、COIN +7.58%、CVNA +1.53%、MARA +15.54%、HOOD -0.70%，五只中四只继续上涨、仅 HOOD 微跌 ⇒ 非「全数回吐」，该半亦未被推翻。
08-19 不是避险日：跌得最狠的四只全部缩量（0.68~0.94倍），下跌来自买盘缺席而非卖压；当天真正的定价事件是财政部扩大长债回购，不是 FOMC 纪要——终审
Test: 次日两条各自可推翻：①若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能，则「没人卖」这半不成立；②若高贝塔（MSTR/COIN/CVNA/MARA/HOOD）次日全数回吐，则「长端下行与美元走弱驱动」这半不成立。只引 每日跳空.csv 的 chg_pct 与本线量能倍数（当日量÷前20日均量）
Result: 对(两条推翻条件均未触发)。①「若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能则『没人卖』半不成立」——08-19 跌最狠四只在 08-20 的表现为 AVGO +0.43%、RDDT -0.92%、INTC -0.72%、AMD +0.65%，无一只出现同等跌幅(08-19 为 -3.71~-4.61%)，前提未出现 ⇒ 该半未被推翻。②「若高贝塔全数回吐则『长端下行与美元走弱驱动』半不成立」——MSTR +7.81%、COIN +7.58%、CVNA +1.53%、MARA +15.54%、HOOD -0.70%，五只中四只继续上涨、仅 HOOD 微跌 ⇒ 非「全数回吐」，该半亦未被推翻。
Cases for every name are in Chapter III of the options page. The ledger is append-only; a revision is a new row.
V
Other names
SPY
QQQ
IWM
TLT
SMH
XLF
XLK
XLV
AAPL
AMZN
GOOG
GOOGL
META
MSFT
NVDA
TSLA
SPCX
AVGO
TSM
AMD
MU
SNDK
MRVL
QCOM
SKHY
SMCI
DELL
ORCL
PLTR
CRWV
NBIS
COIN
HOOD
MSTR
SOFI
JPM
BAC
C
WFC
GS
KRE
V
MA
AXP
MS
SCHW
BLK
BRK.B
CRCL
WMT
COST
HD
TJX
MCD
KO
RACE
MC.PA
RMS.PA
How to read this page
· The one-year percentile and the 30-day and one-year implied vols come from two different sources; each is compared only with its own past, and the two are never spliced together.
· The 30-day and one-year vols are constant-maturity: interpolated between the two nearest expiries to exactly 30 and 365 days, read once before each close.
· A big-print row is one contract's full-day total, not a single trade. Without per-trade timestamps or aggressor side we state premium traded only.
· Every reading is cross-checked against two independent sources and updated once after the close. Raw data is not provided on this site.
· Data and information only; not investment advice; no buy or sell recommendations.
· The one-year percentile and the 30-day and one-year implied vols come from two different sources; each is compared only with its own past, and the two are never spliced together.
· The 30-day and one-year vols are constant-maturity: interpolated between the two nearest expiries to exactly 30 and 365 days, read once before each close.
· A big-print row is one contract's full-day total, not a single trade. Without per-trade timestamps or aggressor side we state premium traded only.
· Every reading is cross-checked against two independent sources and updated once after the close. Raw data is not provided on this site.
· Data and information only; not investment advice; no buy or sell recommendations.
Today's read on this name is in the subscriber email; past issues go public the next day.