Options / Tickers / MSTR
Strategy (MSTR)
Is protection on Strategy cheap or dear today, where has the money been placed, how did the past month play out, and how did the judgments we filed on Strategy settle? Updated after every close, with right and wrong judgments alike left on the record.
Data date 10.07 · close 159.57 (—) · −52.56% from the 52-week high
Where it stands today
Where one-month protection (30-day implied volatility) sits within its past-year range, 0 the cheapest and 100 the dearest. Protection on Strategy is now in the cheapest stretch of the past year.
The one-year sits 7.26 points above the 30-day, the usual shape: a longer policy covers more.
Centred on the previous close of 164.55, option prices imply 157.82 to 171.28 at this week's expiry. A close outside it at expiry means the option sellers lose.
Calls outtraded puts. It counts contracts, not direction: a put buyer may be insuring shares they own.
Levels from high to low, with distance from the close:
| Expected move, high | 171.28 | +7.34% | Centred on the previous close: the implied top at this week's expiry. |
| Call wall | 165 | +3.40% | The strike with the most call open interest: an upside target someone has already made a down payment on. |
| Put wall | 160 | +0.27% | The strike with the most put open interest: protection someone already paid for. |
| Close | 159.57 | ||
| Expected move, low | 157.82 | −1.10% | Centred on the previous close: the implied bottom at this week's expiry. |
| Flip level | 147.99 | −7.26% | Above it, dealer hedging damps moves; below it, hedging amplifies them. |
Data date 10.07. Updated once after each trading day's close; spot is the official close.
The last 30 trading days
Close, flip level, put wall and call wall, day by day: which side of the walls price is on, and whether the walls moved.
One-year and 30-day implied vol, day by day. The short line jumping while the long line holds means only the near-term event is being repriced; the long line rising too means the whole story is.
Shown: the last 30 trading days. Earlier records are in Chapter V (walls) and Chapter VII (implied vol) of the options page.
Today's big prints
Today Strategy calls traded $10.7M in premium and puts $7.8M. Traded, not bought: we cannot see who bought and who sold.
No Strategy contract made today's leaderboard.
Data date only. The board for every name is in Chapter IV of the options page.
Every case we filed on it
Each judgment is written down with its test before the fact, settled by that test, and left standing when wrong. These are all the cases that name Strategy, none removed. Open one for the original filing.
09.18After the second and third hikes, what gets repriced is the farthest cash flow in the expensive group , not the cheap group .Also: SNDK, INTC, NVDA, GOOGL, GSOpen · est. 11.30
第二三次加息之后被重新定价的是贵的那组里现金流最远的，不是便宜的那组。贵组＝SNDK PB 16.67（一年 84% 时间便宜）/ MSTR PB 1.72（一年 89%）/ INTC PB 6.20（五年 99.8%）；便宜组＝NVDA PE 27.77（五年 99% 时间贵）/ GOOGL PE 17.51（五年 95%）/ GS PE 13.73（三年九成），均 09-18 收盘
Test: 10-28 之后一个月（到 11-30）贵组三只等权涨幅跑赢便宜组三只等权 ⇒ 收回；跑输或持平 ⇒ 成立。基准＝09-18 收盘
09.21A stock rising with its insurance is the chasers attaching protection, not a short squeeze.Also: INTC, META, QCOM, AMDconfirmed
confirmed
股价涨保险跟着涨，是追的人自己在买保护，不是空头回补。INTC cm30 +9.49 / META +7.05 / QCOM +6.36 / MSTR +6.25 / AMD +5.63，同日 SPY cm30 12.22 不动
Test: 09.25 前这五只里三只以上股价续涨而 cm30 回落到 09-18 水平以下（62.69/37.64/46.38/67.70/48.82）⇒ 是空头回补，收回。cm30 只引 15:45 主枪
成立结清：收回要三只以上「股价续涨且 cm30 回落到 09-18 以下」，一只都没有。股价对 09-21 收盘：INTC 121.78→123.00、META 741.25→751.66、QCOM 194.23→201.97、AMD 615.52→630.63 续涨，MSTR 168.50→158.61 回落；cm30（15:45 主枪）09-25 对 09-18 基准：INTC 72.88/62.69、META 41.30/37.64、QCOM 49.67/46.38、AMD 50.56/48.82，全部仍在基准之上（MSTR 64.17/67.70 回落但股价没涨）。追的人买的保护一周后退了一部分（四只都比 09-21 峰值低），没有退回原位
Result: 成立
09.18Witching-day bets on a fall lostAlso: SPY, SPCX, TSLA, SNDKundetermined
undetermined
三巫日押跌全输，决议后押跌的钱三天退了四分之三：09.18 到期平值 ±4% 档看跌 816837 张价内 32147（4%）、看涨 1430443 张价内 67%；SPCX 收 152.71 钉在 150P 87620 与 155C 32620 之间两边归零；09.25 到期 premium 看跌占比 54%（09-15）→31%（09-17）→14.6%（09-18），MSTR 六档看涨 $107M、SNDK 五档 $148M
Test: 09-21 结算 MSTR 09.25 六档 / SNDK 五档看涨留存 <50% ⇒ 三巫过路钱不是新钱，「股票期权把加息当过去式」收窄为「三巫日的对冲」。只认 行情尺 09-21 晨结算
Result: 无法判定（核心输入错过取数日）
09.18The three crypto stocks rose a tenth and their insurance got dearer at the same timeAlso: COIN, HOODundetermined
undetermined
加密三只涨一成保险也涨＝追的人在买保护，不是空头回补：MSTR +16.38 / COIN +11.65 / HOOD +9.11，cm30 +3.72 / +3.72 / +3.24（42 只里最高三只）；MSTR 10.16 155C 5.2x 对 105P/90P/80P 成串，COIN 10.16 50P 61x；09.25 MSTR 看涨六档约 $107M
Test: 09-21 结算 MSTR 09.25 六档看涨留存 <50% 且 cm30 回落到 09-17 的 63.98 以下 ⇒ 三巫日过路钱＋空头回补，收回
Result: 无法判定（核心输入错过取数日）
08.1908-19 was not a risk-off day: the four hardest-hit names all traded lighter than usual , so the decline came from absent buyers rather than selling pr…Also: SPY, QQQ, COIN, AVGO, INTC, AMD, NVDARight — neither falsifying condition triggered
Right — neither falsifying condition triggered. First: "if 08-20 brings a comparable decline on 1.5x or more volume, the no-sellers half fails." On 08-20 the four hardest-hit names printed AVGO +0.43%, RDDT -0.92%, INTC -0.72% and AMD +0.65% — none came close to the 3.71% to 4.61% declines of 08-19, so the premise never appeared and that half stands. Second: "if the high-beta group gives it all back, the long-end-and-weak-dollar half fails." MSTR rose 7.81%, COIN 7.58%, CVNA 1.53% and MARA 15.54%, while HOOD slipped 0.70% — four of five kept rising, which is not a full give-back, so that half stands as well.
08-19 不是避险日：跌得最狠的四只全部缩量（0.68~0.94倍），下跌来自买盘缺席而非卖压；当天真正的定价事件是财政部扩大长债回购，不是 FOMC 纪要
Test: 次日两条各自可推翻：①若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能，则「没人卖」这半不成立；②若高贝塔（MSTR/COIN/CVNA/MARA/HOOD）次日全数回吐，则「长端下行与美元走弱驱动」这半不成立。只引 每日跳空.csv 的 chg_pct 与本线量能倍数（当日量÷前20日均量）
08-19 不是避险日：跌得最狠的四只全部缩量（0.68~0.94倍），下跌来自买盘缺席而非卖压；当天真正的定价事件是财政部扩大长债回购，不是 FOMC 纪要——终审
Test: 次日两条各自可推翻：①若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能，则「没人卖」这半不成立；②若高贝塔（MSTR/COIN/CVNA/MARA/HOOD）次日全数回吐，则「长端下行与美元走弱驱动」这半不成立。只引 每日跳空.csv 的 chg_pct 与本线量能倍数（当日量÷前20日均量）
Result: 对(两条推翻条件均未触发)。①「若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能则『没人卖』半不成立」——08-19 跌最狠四只在 08-20 的表现为 AVGO +0.43%、RDDT -0.92%、INTC -0.72%、AMD +0.65%，无一只出现同等跌幅(08-19 为 -3.71~-4.61%)，前提未出现 ⇒ 该半未被推翻。②「若高贝塔全数回吐则『长端下行与美元走弱驱动』半不成立」——MSTR +7.81%、COIN +7.58%、CVNA +1.53%、MARA +15.54%、HOOD -0.70%，五只中四只继续上涨、仅 HOOD 微跌 ⇒ 非「全数回吐」，该半亦未被推翻。
Cases for every name are in Chapter III of the options page. The ledger is append-only; a revision is a new row.
Other names
SPY
QQQ
IWM
TLT
SMH
XLF
XLK
XLV
AAPL
AMZN
GOOG
GOOGL
META
MSFT
NVDA
TSLA
SPCX
AVGO
TSM
AMD
INTC
MU
SNDK
MRVL
QCOM
SKHY
SMCI
DELL
ORCL
PLTR
CRWV
NBIS
COIN
HOOD
SOFI
JPM
BAC
C
WFC
GS
KRE
V
MA
AXP
MS
SCHW
BLK
BRK.B
CRCL
WMT
COST
HD
TJX
MCD
KO
RACE
MC.PA
RMS.PA· The one-year percentile and the 30-day and one-year implied vols come from two different sources; each is compared only with its own past, and the two are never spliced together.
· The 30-day and one-year vols are constant-maturity: interpolated between the two nearest expiries to exactly 30 and 365 days, read once before each close.
· A big-print row is one contract's full-day total, not a single trade. Without per-trade timestamps or aggressor side we state premium traded only.
· Every reading is cross-checked against two independent sources and updated once after the close. Raw data is not provided on this site.
· Data and information only; not investment advice; no buy or sell recommendations.
Today's read on this name is in the subscriber email; past issues go public the next day.