Options / Tickers / QQQ
TICKER PAGE · QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)
Is protection on QQQ cheap or dear today, where has the money been placed, how did the past month play out, and how did the judgments we filed on QQQ settle? Updated after every close, with right and wrong judgments alike left on the record.
Data date 10.07 · close 756.28 (—) · −0.86% from the 52-week high
I
Where it stands today
One-year IV percentile28 / 100
Where one-month protection (30-day implied volatility) sits within its past-year range, 0 the cheapest and 100 the dearest. Protection on QQQ is now in the cheaper part of the past year.
30-day / one-year implied vol (%)18.51 / 24.01
The one-year sits 5.50 points above the 30-day, the usual shape: a longer policy covers more.
Expected move this week±1.0% ±7.26
Centred on the previous close of 759.66, option prices imply 752.4 to 766.92 at this week's expiry. A close outside it at expiry means the option sellers lose.
Put ÷ call (volume / open interest)1.03 / 1.43
Puts outtraded calls. It counts contracts, not direction: a put buyer may be insuring shares they own.
Levels from high to low, with distance from the close:
| Expected move, high | 766.92 | +1.41% | Centred on the previous close: the implied top at this week's expiry. |
| Call wall | 760 | +0.49% | The strike with the most call open interest: an upside target someone has already made a down payment on. |
| Close | 756.28 | ||
| Expected move, low | 752.4 | −0.51% | Centred on the previous close: the implied bottom at this week's expiry. |
| Put wall | 750 | −0.83% | The strike with the most put open interest: protection someone already paid for. |
| Flip level | 742.69 | −1.80% | Above it, dealer hedging damps moves; below it, hedging amplifies them. |
Data date 10.07. Updated once after each trading day's close; spot is the official close.
II
The last 30 trading days
Close, flip level, put wall and call wall, day by day: which side of the walls price is on, and whether the walls moved.
One-year and 30-day implied vol, day by day. The short line jumping while the long line holds means only the near-term event is being repriced; the long line rising too means the whole story is.
Shown: the last 30 trading days. Earlier records are in Chapter V (walls) and Chapter VII (implied vol) of the options page.
III
Today's big prints
No QQQ contract made today's leaderboard.
Data date only. The board for every name is in Chapter IV of the options page.
IV
Every case we filed on it
Each judgment is written down with its test before the fact, settled by that test, and left standing when wrong. These are all the cases that name QQQ, none removed. Open one for the original filing.
8cases since 08.17
8settled
0open
10.02The deep out-of-the-money Nasdaq 2028 puts are new positions, not rollsWithdrawn
Settlement
Withdrawn
Withdrawn
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
10.02 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
纳指 2028 年深度虚值看跌是新开不是换仓：10-02 QQQ 2028-01-21 340/345/350/355/360P 与 2028-06-16 310/315/320/325/330P 十档合计成交 36788 张，行权价都在现价 749.58 的一半以下
Test: 10-05 晨读结算持仓：十档合计较 10-01 结算 42524 增加 ≥18394（当日成交一半）⇒ 成立；否则收回
纳指 2028 年深度虚值看跌是新开不是换仓：10-02 QQQ 2028-01-21 340/345/350/355/360P 与 2028-06-16 310/315/320/325/330P 十档合计成交 36788 张，行权价都在现价 749.58 的一半以下
Test: 10-05 晨读结算持仓：十档合计较 10-01 结算 42524 增加 ≥18394（当日成交一半）⇒ 成立；否则收回
10.05 Settled
收回：判据为 10-05 晨读十档结算持仓较 10-01 的 42524 增加 ≥18394（10-02 成交 36788 的一半）才成立；10-05 晨读（即 10-02 结算）十档合计 57633，增 15109，只占成交的 41.1%，未到线。照实记：十档里八档持仓增加约为当日成交的 49% 到 60%，这部分确是新开；拖后腿的是成交最大的两档，2028-01 350P 成交 5726 张、持仓 30880→30810 反降 70，2028-06 320P 成交 5671 张只留下 29.5%，两档量几乎一样，更像一笔换仓。10-06 晨读（即 10-05 结算）合计 57556，之后没有继续加。错在把十档当成一个整体，没先拆出持仓最大的那档
Result: 收回
收回：判据为 10-05 晨读十档结算持仓较 10-01 的 42524 增加 ≥18394（10-02 成交 36788 的一半）才成立；10-05 晨读（即 10-02 结算）十档合计 57633，增 15109，只占成交的 41.1%，未到线。照实记：十档里八档持仓增加约为当日成交的 49% 到 60%，这部分确是新开；拖后腿的是成交最大的两档，2028-01 350P 成交 5726 张、持仓 30880→30810 反降 70，2028-06 320P 成交 5671 张只留下 29.5%，两档量几乎一样，更像一笔换仓。10-06 晨读（即 10-05 结算）合计 57556，之后没有继续加。错在把十档当成一个整体，没先拆出持仓最大的那档
Result: 收回
09.28A roll, not new bearish money: 191539 Nasdaq ETF December 660 puts traded against 200912 open interest, and 191060 March 2027 670 puts traded against …Right, it stands
Settlement
Right, it stands: at settlement on Sep 29 the December 2026 660 put fell from 200912 to 26728 contracts (down 174184) and the March 2027 670 put rose from 5397 to 195642 (up 190245), both past the 150000 line. The December block of protection moved almost entirely to next March: a change of expiry, not new bearish money
Right, it stands: at settlement on Sep 29 the December 2026 660 put fell from 200912 to 26728 contracts (down 174184) and the March 2027 670 put rose from 5397 to 195642 (up 190245), both past the 150000 line. The December block of protection moved almost entirely to next March: a change of expiry, not new bearish money
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.28 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
纳指 ETF 12 月 660 看跌挪到明年 3 月 670 看跌是换仓，不是新增看空：2026-12-18 660P 成交 191539 张对持仓 200912，2027-03-19 670P 成交 191060 张对持仓 5397（35 倍），两边张数几乎相等，都比现价低约 9% 到 10%；扣掉这笔，三个月以上到期的纳指看涨 19868 张仍多于看跌 12025 张
Test: 09-29 结算持仓：2026-12-18 660P 较 200912 减少不到 150000，或 2027-03-19 670P 较 5397 增加不到 150000 ⇒ 收回；两条都满足 ⇒ 成立
纳指 ETF 12 月 660 看跌挪到明年 3 月 670 看跌是换仓，不是新增看空：2026-12-18 660P 成交 191539 张对持仓 200912，2027-03-19 670P 成交 191060 张对持仓 5397（35 倍），两边张数几乎相等，都比现价低约 9% 到 10%；扣掉这笔，三个月以上到期的纳指看涨 19868 张仍多于看跌 12025 张
Test: 09-29 结算持仓：2026-12-18 660P 较 200912 减少不到 150000，或 2027-03-19 670P 较 5397 增加不到 150000 ⇒ 收回；两条都满足 ⇒ 成立
09.29 Settled
对，成立：09-29 晨结算持仓 2026-12-18 660P 从 200912 降到 26728（减少 174184），2027-03-19 670P 从 5397 升到 195642（增加 190245），两条都过了 15 万的线。12 月那批保护几乎整批挪到了明年 3 月，是换开奖日，不是新增看空
Result: 对
对，成立：09-29 晨结算持仓 2026-12-18 660P 从 200912 降到 26728（减少 174184），2027-03-19 670P 从 5397 升到 195642（增加 190245），两条都过了 15 万的线。12 月那批保护几乎整批挪到了明年 3 月，是换开奖日，不是新增看空
Result: 对
09.11What got cheaper today is protection for the meeting day, not for the road after the hikeAlso: SPY, IWM, TLT, MOVEconfirmed
Settlement
confirmed
confirmed
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.11 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
今天便宜下来的是议息那一天的保护，加息之后那段路的保护没便宜：29 个标的三十天保护价钱无一上涨（SPY cm30 14.35→12.45 本表最大单日降幅、QQQ 20.12→17.39、TLT 12.59→10.91）、VIX9D 17.70→14.47、VIX1Y 22.23→21.75，同日 MOVE 82.09→82.21 一分没便宜。给股票做保护的人退了，给利率做保护的人没退
Test: ①09.16 后 MOVE 若跌回 76 以下 ⇒ 给利率做保护的人也退了，收回；②09.15 前 SPY cm30 若重回 14 以上 ⇒ 今日之便宜为到期日对冲消失（09-11 到期 6.69 亿），收回。MOVE 只引 每日MOVE.csv，cm30 只引 15:45 主枪
今天便宜下来的是议息那一天的保护，加息之后那段路的保护没便宜：29 个标的三十天保护价钱无一上涨（SPY cm30 14.35→12.45 本表最大单日降幅、QQQ 20.12→17.39、TLT 12.59→10.91）、VIX9D 17.70→14.47、VIX1Y 22.23→21.75，同日 MOVE 82.09→82.21 一分没便宜。给股票做保护的人退了，给利率做保护的人没退
Test: ①09.16 后 MOVE 若跌回 76 以下 ⇒ 给利率做保护的人也退了，收回；②09.15 前 SPY cm30 若重回 14 以上 ⇒ 今日之便宜为到期日对冲消失（09-11 到期 6.69 亿），收回。MOVE 只引 每日MOVE.csv，cm30 只引 15:45 主枪
09.15 Settled
② 未触发：SPY cm30 09-15 15:45 主枪 13.91 <14 ⇒ 09-11 的便宜不是到期日对冲消失；① 待 09.16 后 MOVE（09-15 83.71 / 34.9）
Test: ① 09.16 后 MOVE <76 ⇒ 收回
Result: 保留
② 未触发：SPY cm30 09-15 15:45 主枪 13.91 <14 ⇒ 09-11 的便宜不是到期日对冲消失；① 待 09.16 后 MOVE（09-15 83.71 / 34.9）
Test: ① 09.16 后 MOVE <76 ⇒ 收回
Result: 保留
09.17 Settled
成立结清：MOVE 09-16 80.73 >76，给利率做保护的人没退；SPY cm30 09-15 前未过 14，到期日对冲说不成立；09-17 SPY cm30 12.30 又低于 09-11 的 12.45
Result: 成立
成立结清：MOVE 09-16 80.73 >76，给利率做保护的人没退；SPY cm30 09-15 前未过 14，到期日对冲说不成立；09-17 SPY cm30 12.30 又低于 09-11 的 12.45
Result: 成立
09.03Tomorrow's payrolls did not get marked upAlso: SPY (21 names in all)Right, and rewritten per the criterion
Settlement
Right, and rewritten per the criterion: both ends are rising, the near end faster.
Right, and rewritten per the criterion: both ends are rising, the near end faster.
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
09.03 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
明天的非农没有被加价，被加价的是一年之后：五档期限里近端四档全线降价，唯独一年期从 21.24 抬到 21.43，是唯一涨价的一档
Test: 非农公布后三个交易日内看五档形状：若近端补涨回来而一年期回落，则「市场把风险记在远端」这个读法作废；若近端继续便宜、一年期继续抬，则加强。只引 leaps_gauge.json 的 term_ladder
明天的非农没有被加价，被加价的是一年之后：五档期限里近端四档全线降价，唯独一年期从 21.24 抬到 21.43，是唯一涨价的一档
Test: 非农公布后三个交易日内看五档形状：若近端补涨回来而一年期回落，则「市场把风险记在远端」这个读法作废；若近端继续便宜、一年期继续抬，则加强。只引 leaps_gauge.json 的 term_ladder
09.09 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
被加价的不是明天的非农，是一年之后——终审
Test: 非农公布后三个交易日内看五档形状：近端补涨而一年期回落则作废；一年期站 21.7 以上则保留并改写。只引 leaps_gauge.json 的 term_ladder
Result: 对（保留并按判据改写为「两头都抬」）。09.09 一年期 21.97 ≥ 21.7。五档自 09-04：九天 11.97→15.59、三十天 15.30→16.46、三月 17.61→18.87、六月 19.89→20.63、一年 21.49→21.97
被加价的不是明天的非农，是一年之后——终审
Test: 非农公布后三个交易日内看五档形状：近端补涨而一年期回落则作废；一年期站 21.7 以上则保留并改写。只引 leaps_gauge.json 的 term_ladder
Result: 对（保留并按判据改写为「两头都抬」）。09.09 一年期 21.97 ≥ 21.7。五档自 09-04：九天 11.97→15.59、三十天 15.30→16.46、三月 17.61→18.87、六月 19.89→20.63、一年 21.49→21.97
08.1908-19 was not a risk-off day: the four hardest-hit names all traded lighter than usual , so the decline came from absent buyers rather than selling pr…Also: SPY, MSTR, COIN, AVGO, INTC, AMD, NVDARight — neither falsifying condition triggered
Settlement
Right — neither falsifying condition triggered. First: "if 08-20 brings a comparable decline on 1.5x or more volume, the no-sellers half fails." On 08-20 the four hardest-hit names printed AVGO +0.43%, RDDT -0.92%, INTC -0.72% and AMD +0.65% — none came close to the 3.71% to 4.61% declines of 08-19, so the premise never appeared and that half stands. Second: "if the high-beta group gives it all back, the long-end-and-weak-dollar half fails." MSTR rose 7.81%, COIN 7.58%, CVNA 1.53% and MARA 15.54%, while HOOD slipped 0.70% — four of five kept rising, which is not a full give-back, so that half stands as well.
Right — neither falsifying condition triggered. First: "if 08-20 brings a comparable decline on 1.5x or more volume, the no-sellers half fails." On 08-20 the four hardest-hit names printed AVGO +0.43%, RDDT -0.92%, INTC -0.72% and AMD +0.65% — none came close to the 3.71% to 4.61% declines of 08-19, so the premise never appeared and that half stands. Second: "if the high-beta group gives it all back, the long-end-and-weak-dollar half fails." MSTR rose 7.81%, COIN 7.58%, CVNA 1.53% and MARA 15.54%, while HOOD slipped 0.70% — four of five kept rising, which is not a full give-back, so that half stands as well.
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
08.19 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
08-19 不是避险日：跌得最狠的四只全部缩量（0.68~0.94倍），下跌来自买盘缺席而非卖压；当天真正的定价事件是财政部扩大长债回购，不是 FOMC 纪要
Test: 次日两条各自可推翻：①若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能，则「没人卖」这半不成立；②若高贝塔（MSTR/COIN/CVNA/MARA/HOOD）次日全数回吐，则「长端下行与美元走弱驱动」这半不成立。只引 每日跳空.csv 的 chg_pct 与本线量能倍数（当日量÷前20日均量）
08-19 不是避险日：跌得最狠的四只全部缩量（0.68~0.94倍），下跌来自买盘缺席而非卖压；当天真正的定价事件是财政部扩大长债回购，不是 FOMC 纪要
Test: 次日两条各自可推翻：①若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能，则「没人卖」这半不成立；②若高贝塔（MSTR/COIN/CVNA/MARA/HOOD）次日全数回吐，则「长端下行与美元走弱驱动」这半不成立。只引 每日跳空.csv 的 chg_pct 与本线量能倍数（当日量÷前20日均量）
08.26 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
08-19 不是避险日：跌得最狠的四只全部缩量（0.68~0.94倍），下跌来自买盘缺席而非卖压；当天真正的定价事件是财政部扩大长债回购，不是 FOMC 纪要——终审
Test: 次日两条各自可推翻：①若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能，则「没人卖」这半不成立；②若高贝塔（MSTR/COIN/CVNA/MARA/HOOD）次日全数回吐，则「长端下行与美元走弱驱动」这半不成立。只引 每日跳空.csv 的 chg_pct 与本线量能倍数（当日量÷前20日均量）
Result: 对(两条推翻条件均未触发)。①「若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能则『没人卖』半不成立」——08-19 跌最狠四只在 08-20 的表现为 AVGO +0.43%、RDDT -0.92%、INTC -0.72%、AMD +0.65%，无一只出现同等跌幅(08-19 为 -3.71~-4.61%)，前提未出现 ⇒ 该半未被推翻。②「若高贝塔全数回吐则『长端下行与美元走弱驱动』半不成立」——MSTR +7.81%、COIN +7.58%、CVNA +1.53%、MARA +15.54%、HOOD -0.70%，五只中四只继续上涨、仅 HOOD 微跌 ⇒ 非「全数回吐」，该半亦未被推翻。
08-19 不是避险日：跌得最狠的四只全部缩量（0.68~0.94倍），下跌来自买盘缺席而非卖压；当天真正的定价事件是财政部扩大长债回购，不是 FOMC 纪要——终审
Test: 次日两条各自可推翻：①若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能，则「没人卖」这半不成立；②若高贝塔（MSTR/COIN/CVNA/MARA/HOOD）次日全数回吐，则「长端下行与美元走弱驱动」这半不成立。只引 每日跳空.csv 的 chg_pct 与本线量能倍数（当日量÷前20日均量）
Result: 对(两条推翻条件均未触发)。①「若 08-20 出现同等跌幅配 1.5 倍以上量能则『没人卖』半不成立」——08-19 跌最狠四只在 08-20 的表现为 AVGO +0.43%、RDDT -0.92%、INTC -0.72%、AMD +0.65%，无一只出现同等跌幅(08-19 为 -3.71~-4.61%)，前提未出现 ⇒ 该半未被推翻。②「若高贝塔全数回吐则『长端下行与美元走弱驱动』半不成立」——MSTR +7.81%、COIN +7.58%、CVNA +1.53%、MARA +15.54%、HOOD -0.70%，五只中四只继续上涨、仅 HOOD 微跌 ⇒ 非「全数回吐」，该半亦未被推翻。
08.19The two index put blocks expiring 09-11 are not a bet on a crash but the two legs of a vertical spreadAlso: SPYNot determinable — the data for the core leg is permanently …
Settlement
Not determinable — the data for the core leg is permanently missing. The test called for next-day open interest on both legs. The near-the-money leg checks out: QQQ 2026-09-11 705P open interest rose from 1,372 to 33,721 on 08-20, a gain of 32,349 that closely matches the 33,448 contracts traded on 08-19, confirming new positioning rather than churn. But the lower strike, QQQ 680P, was not captured by the unusual-activity scan on 08-20 and has no row that day — only 16 rows exist for that expiry, none at 680P — and neither SPY leg, 760P or 740P, has an 08-20 row either. The central question, whether both strikes gained comparable open interest together, therefore has no data behind it.
Not determinable — the data for the core leg is permanently missing. The test called for next-day open interest on both legs. The near-the-money leg checks out: QQQ 2026-09-11 705P open interest rose from 1,372 to 33,721 on 08-20, a gain of 32,349 that closely matches the 33,448 contracts traded on 08-19, confirming new positioning rather than churn. But the lower strike, QQQ 680P, was not captured by the unusual-activity scan on 08-20 and has no row that day — only 16 rows exist for that expiry, none at 680P — and neither SPY leg, 760P or 740P, has an 08-20 row either. The central question, whether both strikes gained comparable open interest together, therefore has no data behind it.
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
08.19 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
9月11日到期的两组指数看跌不是赌崩盘，是垂直价差的两条腿：买贴价档、卖更低档，赔付被封在两个行权价之间
Test: 次日看两条腿的持仓量：若两档持仓同步上升相近数量则价差成立；若只有贴价档持仓上升、更低档未动，则两档只是成交量碰巧接近，本判断不成立并当期回来认。只引 每日UOA近月异常.csv 的 oi 列
9月11日到期的两组指数看跌不是赌崩盘，是垂直价差的两条腿：买贴价档、卖更低档，赔付被封在两个行权价之间
Test: 次日看两条腿的持仓量：若两档持仓同步上升相近数量则价差成立；若只有贴价档持仓上升、更低档未动，则两档只是成交量碰巧接近，本判断不成立并当期回来认。只引 每日UOA近月异常.csv 的 oi 列
08.26 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
9月11日到期的两组指数看跌不是赌崩盘，是垂直价差的两条腿：买贴价档、卖更低档，赔付被封在两个行权价之间——终审
Test: 次日看两条腿的持仓量：若两档持仓同步上升相近数量则价差成立；若只有贴价档持仓上升、更低档未动，则两档只是成交量碰巧接近，本判断不成立并当期回来认。只引 每日UOA近月异常.csv 的 oi 列
Result: 无法判定(核心腿数据永久缺失)。判据要求「次日看两条腿的持仓量」：贴价档 QQQ 2026-09-11 705P 次日(08-20)OI 由 1,372 升至 33,721(+32,349，约等于 08-19 当日成交量 33,448)⇒ 贴价档确为新建仓而非换手，这半可证；但更低档 QQQ 680P 在 08-20 未被 UOA 扫中、当日无行(08-20 该到期仅 16 行，无 680P)，SPY 两条腿(760P/740P)同样无 08-20 行 ⇒ 「两档持仓是否同步上升相近数量」这个**核心问题**无数据可答。
9月11日到期的两组指数看跌不是赌崩盘，是垂直价差的两条腿：买贴价档、卖更低档，赔付被封在两个行权价之间——终审
Test: 次日看两条腿的持仓量：若两档持仓同步上升相近数量则价差成立；若只有贴价档持仓上升、更低档未动，则两档只是成交量碰巧接近，本判断不成立并当期回来认。只引 每日UOA近月异常.csv 的 oi 列
Result: 无法判定(核心腿数据永久缺失)。判据要求「次日看两条腿的持仓量」：贴价档 QQQ 2026-09-11 705P 次日(08-20)OI 由 1,372 升至 33,721(+32,349，约等于 08-19 当日成交量 33,448)⇒ 贴价档确为新建仓而非换手，这半可证；但更低档 QQQ 680P 在 08-20 未被 UOA 扫中、当日无行(08-20 该到期仅 16 行，无 680P)，SPY 两条腿(760P/740P)同样无 08-20 行 ⇒ 「两档持仓是否同步上升相近数量」这个**核心问题**无数据可答。
08.17What the fence actually prices is not whether something happens but which side it happens onAlso: SPYRight
Settlement
Right. Across the next three sessions (08-18, 08-19, 08-20), computing (high minus anchor)/EM and (anchor minus low)/EM exactly as the filing specified: SPY upside -0.58, +0.93, -0.22 against downside +1.05, -0.12, +1.71, averaging +0.042 up versus +0.880 down; QQQ upside -0.92, +0.49, -0.17 against downside +1.66, +0.60, +1.16, averaging -0.203 up versus +1.137 down. Both names consumed more of the downside half on average, so the test — downside consumption persistently exceeding upside — holds.
Right. Across the next three sessions (08-18, 08-19, 08-20), computing (high minus anchor)/EM and (anchor minus low)/EM exactly as the filing specified: SPY upside -0.58, +0.93, -0.22 against downside +1.05, -0.12, +1.71, averaging +0.042 up versus +0.880 down; QQQ upside -0.92, +0.49, -0.17 against downside +1.66, +0.60, +1.16, averaging -0.203 up versus +1.137 down. Both names consumed more of the downside half on average, so the test — downside consumption persistently exceeding upside — holds.
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
08.17 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
围栏真正被定价的不是会不会有事，而是往哪边有事：无宏观题目的日子，钱仍偏在下沿一侧
Test: 后续三场围栏统计高低两半的使用比例：向下那半平均用量持续高于向上则成立；反转则不成立。口径＝(高−锚)/EM 与 (锚−低)/EM
围栏真正被定价的不是会不会有事，而是往哪边有事：无宏观题目的日子，钱仍偏在下沿一侧
Test: 后续三场围栏统计高低两半的使用比例：向下那半平均用量持续高于向上则成立；反转则不成立。口径＝(高−锚)/EM 与 (锚−低)/EM
08.26 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
围栏真正被定价的不是会不会有事，而是往哪边有事：无宏观题目的日子，钱仍偏在下沿一侧——终审
Test: 后续三场围栏统计高低两半的使用比例：向下那半平均用量持续高于向上则成立；反转则不成立。口径＝(高−锚)/EM 与 (锚−低)/EM
Result: 对。后续三场(08-18/19/20)按立案口径逐场算 (高−锚)/EM 与 (锚−低)/EM：SPY 上 -0.58/+0.93/-0.22、下 +1.05/-0.12/+1.71 ⇒ 三场均值 上+0.042 vs 下+0.880；QQQ 上 -0.92/+0.49/-0.17、下 +1.66/+0.60/+1.16 ⇒ 均值 上-0.203 vs 下+1.137。两只票的下半平均用量均高于上半，判据「向下那半平均用量持续高于向上」成立。
围栏真正被定价的不是会不会有事，而是往哪边有事：无宏观题目的日子，钱仍偏在下沿一侧——终审
Test: 后续三场围栏统计高低两半的使用比例：向下那半平均用量持续高于向上则成立；反转则不成立。口径＝(高−锚)/EM 与 (锚−低)/EM
Result: 对。后续三场(08-18/19/20)按立案口径逐场算 (高−锚)/EM 与 (锚−低)/EM：SPY 上 -0.58/+0.93/-0.22、下 +1.05/-0.12/+1.71 ⇒ 三场均值 上+0.042 vs 下+0.880；QQQ 上 -0.92/+0.49/-0.17、下 +1.66/+0.60/+1.16 ⇒ 均值 上-0.203 vs 下+1.137。两只票的下半平均用量均高于上半，判据「向下那半平均用量持续高于向上」成立。
08.17In the same-day-expiry layer, the overwhelming majority of volume has nothing to do with directionAlso: SPY, MU, META, NVDA (13 names in all)Not determinable
Settlement
Not determinable. The filing hard-coded its test as "only rows in the daily contract observation log whose source is the quote-screen OCR feed," and that source recorded nothing from 2026-08-18 through the settlement date — a direct check of 08-18 to 08-26 returns zero rows. The input the test required was never produced, so this case physically cannot be settled.
Not determinable. The filing hard-coded its test as "only rows in the daily contract observation log whose source is the quote-screen OCR feed," and that source recorded nothing from 2026-08-18 through the settlement date — a direct check of 08-18 to 08-26 returns zero rows. The input the test required was never produced, so this case physically cannot be settled.
Original filing and test, archived verbatim in Chinese
08.17 Filed (confidence: Leaning)
当日到期这一层，绝大部分成交量与方向无关：13 只里 11 只最热档是看跌，12 只行权价贴在收盘价 ±1% 内
Test: 后续三个到期日统计：最热档若系统性偏离现价（|行权价−收盘|/收盘 > 1% 的票占多数），则本判断不成立，08-17 记为单日形状；仍贴现价则加强。只引 每日合约观察日志.csv 里 source=行情尺截图OCR 的行
当日到期这一层，绝大部分成交量与方向无关：13 只里 11 只最热档是看跌，12 只行权价贴在收盘价 ±1% 内
Test: 后续三个到期日统计：最热档若系统性偏离现价（|行权价−收盘|/收盘 > 1% 的票占多数），则本判断不成立，08-17 记为单日形状；仍贴现价则加强。只引 每日合约观察日志.csv 里 source=行情尺截图OCR 的行
08.26 Settled (confidence: Leaning)
当日到期这一层，绝大部分成交量与方向无关：13 只里 11 只最热档是看跌，12 只行权价贴在收盘价 ±1% 内——终审
Test: 后续三个到期日统计：最热档若系统性偏离现价（|行权价−收盘|/收盘 > 1% 的票占多数），则本判断不成立，08-17 记为单日形状；仍贴现价则加强。只引 每日合约观察日志.csv 里 source=行情尺截图OCR 的行
Result: 无法判定。立案时把判据写死为「只引 每日合约观察日志.csv 里 source=行情尺截图OCR 的行」，而该来源自 2026-08-18 起至开奖日一行未入库(实查 08-18~08-26 共 0 行)⇒ 判据所需的输入从未产生，本判断在物理上无法执行开奖。
当日到期这一层，绝大部分成交量与方向无关：13 只里 11 只最热档是看跌，12 只行权价贴在收盘价 ±1% 内——终审
Test: 后续三个到期日统计：最热档若系统性偏离现价（|行权价−收盘|/收盘 > 1% 的票占多数），则本判断不成立，08-17 记为单日形状；仍贴现价则加强。只引 每日合约观察日志.csv 里 source=行情尺截图OCR 的行
Result: 无法判定。立案时把判据写死为「只引 每日合约观察日志.csv 里 source=行情尺截图OCR 的行」，而该来源自 2026-08-18 起至开奖日一行未入库(实查 08-18~08-26 共 0 行)⇒ 判据所需的输入从未产生，本判断在物理上无法执行开奖。
Cases for every name are in Chapter III of the options page. The ledger is append-only; a revision is a new row.
V
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How to read this page
· The one-year percentile and the 30-day and one-year implied vols come from two different sources; each is compared only with its own past, and the two are never spliced together.
· The 30-day and one-year vols are constant-maturity: interpolated between the two nearest expiries to exactly 30 and 365 days, read once before each close.
· A big-print row is one contract's full-day total, not a single trade. Without per-trade timestamps or aggressor side we state premium traded only.
· Every reading is cross-checked against two independent sources and updated once after the close. Raw data is not provided on this site.
· Data and information only; not investment advice; no buy or sell recommendations.
· The one-year percentile and the 30-day and one-year implied vols come from two different sources; each is compared only with its own past, and the two are never spliced together.
· The 30-day and one-year vols are constant-maturity: interpolated between the two nearest expiries to exactly 30 and 365 days, read once before each close.
· A big-print row is one contract's full-day total, not a single trade. Without per-trade timestamps or aggressor side we state premium traded only.
· Every reading is cross-checked against two independent sources and updated once after the close. Raw data is not provided on this site.
· Data and information only; not investment advice; no buy or sell recommendations.
Today's read on this name is in the subscriber email; past issues go public the next day.